Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 8th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-05-13 15:48:53

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

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Performance and Talent Statistics: May 8th, 2013

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

Sanchez and Zimmermann were rained out last night so they give it another go today.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Clayton Kershaw, LAD (v. ARI) – Kershaw actually when through a 3-game spell where he walked 11 in 17.7 innings before steamrolling Milwaukee for eight shutout with zero walks and 12 Ks. The walks are really the only issue he’s had this year so he’s really his biggest opponent right now. The D’Backs have improved a bit overall against lefties lately, but they haven’t been facing the best pitcher in the National League to do so. They are still the second-worst team in baseball against lefty curveballs with a .111 AVG and 291 OPS. That’s going to work really well when they face Kershaw’s curve that has allowed a .050/.050/.050 line with 10 of his 52 Ks.

Anibal Sanchez, DET (at WAS) – For all the buzz they got as the league’s best team, the Nats aren’t hitting right now. They have a paltry 699 OPS against righties which is 20th in baseball. Sanchez should rely heavily on the fastball (as he normally does at 51%), but then shift some of his pitch mix to the curveball with regards to his secondary stuff as the Nats actually crush changeups and sliders from righties. Their 694 OPS against heaters is 29th in baseball so I expect tons of them tonight in several variations between four- and two-seamers.

Matt Moore, TB(v. TOR) – When your worst outing is a four run, five inning start in Colorado, you are having a helluva season. I was more concerned with Colorado’s effectiveness against lefties than I was with Coors Field, but it was hard to get away from just how great Moore had been to that point. This Blue Jays lineup hasn’t been the force we expected them to be when analyzing their offseason and while they have had some success against lefties – namely Jon Lester – it hasn’t been enough to run from Moore because of it. When the changeup and curveball are on, he cannot be beat.

Jordan Zimmermann, WAS (v. DET) – Zimm’s pitch-to-contact approach with his fastball might not be the best game plan against this potent offense. Of course, pitch-to-contact is a bit of a pejorative at times reserved for run of the mill arms, which Zimm mostly certainly is not. His strikeouts are way down on the year checking in at 16% after sitting at 19% a year ago and this is the exact team he could use some extra ones against. Zimmermann remains in the cream of the crop because he is simply an excellent pitcher and he can make even a great offense look foolish, but the investment needed to roster him just isn’t worth the risk on a day with better options available.

Derek Holland, TEX (at MIL) – Is Holland finally developing into the frontend starter he has teased us with for parts of the last several years? He’s been great in almost every start this year, but perhaps none were more impressive than his shutdown of the Red Sox last weekend. He threw eight shutout innings with nine strikeouts, six hits, and a walk. This wasn’t some run-of-the-mill opponent, either. Yes, the Brewers do have success against lefties with an NL-best 808 OPS (second to only Oakland), but they still strikeout 22% of the time so they are susceptible. A hot pitcher can cool a set of hot bats in no time.

BEST THE REST:

Jake Peavy, CWS (at NYM) – He’d be in the cream of the crop if this start had been pushed back twice due to back spasms. The Mets aren’t a terribly threatening offense, but any major league lineup can jump on a pitcher throwing at less than 100% if his location is off. The biggest issue with Peavy is the unknown. We just don’t know how good he feels. If any outlet builds in a little discount for the injury concerns, I would be tempted to take advantage of it, but at full price it’s just too risky for me considering that better options are out there.

Chris Tillman, BAL (at KC) – Tillman had some of the best secondary pitches in the game last year, but his fastball would put him in such deep holes that it almost didn’t matter. This year, his fastball has been remarkably effective allowing a .244 AVG and 697 OPS and that allows him to get into better counts where he can put his secondary pitches on display. He is quietly climbing up the ranks and I’m not sure all the outlets have adjusted his price accordingly. I like him as a nice value play.

Kyle Lohse, MIL (v. TEX) – The Rangers have a dangerous lineup, but Lohse has the talent to keep them off-balance and limit the damage. He needs to make sure he doesn’t get beat with his modest fastball so he can get into counts for off-speed stuff as the Rangers have a .206 AVG and 544 OPS against righty off-speed pitches. Lohse uses his secondary stuff just over 50% of the time so this potential weakness of Texas fits well with his approach.

Wade Miley, ARI (at LAD) – Miley has a clear path to success today against the Dodgers. His fastball and breaking pitches need to be the foundation of his game plan and his changeup just hasn’t been as effective as it was last year. He uses it second-most in his arsenal, but the slider and curveball will need to become a bigger part of his arsenal at least for this game. His changeup is yielding a 1176 OPS to righties this year and the Dodgers are baseball’s best team against lefty changeups at 1031 OPS with their righties turning in a 1003 mark. When you’re parsing the data that thinly this early in the season, the samples are thin, but that is the clear weakness for Miley so far this year.

Bud Norris, HOU (v. LAA) – He was the one pitcher who actually stopped the bleeding for the Astros against Detroit going seven strong allowing just two runs on five hits and three walks with seven punch outs. He has seven shutout innings against the Angels already this year, too. For all the scary talent on their club, the Angels are just league average against righties. They are actually below league average against fastballs with a 774 OPS compared to the 802 league average mark. Norris used his heater 49% of the time in their first matchup and held them to a 3-for-13 mark and his slider was used as the strikeout pitch netting four (of his five) of them in seven PA that ended with sliders. Mike Trout (679 OPS), Albert Pujols (614), and Josh Hamilton (522) have all had their fits with righty sliders this year.

USE CAUTION:

Allen Webster, BOS (v. MIN) – Webster is a rookie who made some waves in Spring Training and actually seemed to have a decent shot at making the club, but eventually got put in Triple-A. He’s been fantastic in four starts and even mixed in an MLB spot start against the Royals whom he handled for six strong allowing three runs (two earned) on five hits and a walk with five strikeouts. His two home runs allowed are a microcosm of how tough rookie life can be in the majors. Make a mistake in the minors and the guy might not even hit it let alone do damage. Make a mistake in the bigs and it’s probably going to be a souvenir. The Twins are a nice matchup, though, so if you want to take on some risk in order to load your lineup with top hitters, he’s a nice gamble.

A.J. Griffin, OAK (at CLE) – Griffin has been up and down this year. After starting strong against modest to weak opponents, he got touched up by the Red Sox and Orioles before cruising for seven shutout innings in Yankee Stadium during his last time out. This Indians lineup has become one to avoid unless you’re pitching a stud against them so I’ll play it safe with Griffin.

Justin Masterson, CLE (v. OAK) – I’m going to lean on my analysis of Masterson from the May 3rd piece here:

Masterson’s Achilles heel (lefties) has returned with a vengeance in his last three starts. After holding southpaws to a 417 OPS in his first three starts during which he posted 0.41 ERA in 22 innings, he has seen that jump to 1062 in his last three while allowing a 6.38 ERA in 18.3 innings. Minnesota can stack up to eight lefties in their lineup when you consider natural lefties and switch-hitters.

The Twins popped him for five runs in 6.7 innings. The A’s can stack six lefties in their lineup between naturals and Jed Lowrie as a switch-hitter. Their lefties are better than Minnesota’s, too, so this could be trouble. I want nothing to do with this matchup.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

• Jeremy Hefner, NYM
• Juan Nicasio, COL
• Joe Blanton, LAA
• Ricky Romero, TOR
• Luis Mendoza, KC
• Pedro Hernandez, MIN
• David Phelps, NYY

PARK FACTORS: MAY 8TH 2013