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Daily Pitcher Breakdown: September 23rd, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-09-23 19:13:31

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: September 23rd, 2013

PLAYER PERFORMANCE TALENT
PITCHER TM IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Harang NYM 131.1 5.69 4.10 1.33 33.3% 18.3% 5.6% 1.71 0.81
Cueto CIN 53.2 3.02 3.42 1.08 40.0% 21.4% 7.0% 1.01 2.23
Estrada MIL 114.0 4.26 3.55 1.15 36.8% 22.5% 5.6% 1.50 0.89
Minor ATL 191.2 3.19 3.63 1.08 56.7% 22.1% 5.6% 0.94 0.80
Halladay PHI 61.2 6.71 4.81 1.44 50.0% 18.3% 12.2% 1.75 1.09
Eovaldi MIA 92.2 3.79 4.49 1.36 62.5% 17.1% 9.1% 0.68 1.24
Lyles HOU 138.2 5.32 4.44 1.48 33.3% 14.6% 7.4% 1.10 1.58
Holland TEX 199.1 3.48 3.87 1.30 51.6% 21.0% 7.5% 0.90 1.13
Morton PIT 104.2 3.35 3.46 1.29 44.4% 17.3% 6.7% 0.52 3.25
Samardzija CHC 201.2 4.42 3.60 1.34 41.9% 23.6% 8.6% 1.07 1.49
Verlander DET 206.1 3.66 3.81 1.33 40.6% 22.3% 8.1% 0.83 1.03
Pelfrey MIN 146.2 5.34 4.63 1.55 14.3% 14.7% 7.7% 0.80 1.19
Happ TOR 80.1 4.82 4.71 1.48 18.8% 18.8% 11.4% 0.90 0.82
Quintana CWS 185.2 3.49 3.91 1.24 35.5% 19.8% 6.8% 0.97 1.18
Roark WAS 41.2 1.08 3.35 0.84 100.0% 20.9% 5.9% 0.00 1.58
Wainwright STL 229.1 2.98 2.98 1.08 53.1% 23.0% 3.7% 0.55 1.87
Milone OAK 149.0 4.23 4.21 1.30 36.0% 18.0% 6.0% 1.45 0.75
Richards LAA 136.0 3.77 3.54 1.31 40.0% 17.1% 7.1% 0.66 2.72
McCarthy ARI 122.0 4.57 4.06 1.37 35.0% 14.0% 3.6% 0.81 1.64
Stults SDP 190.1 4.02 4.29 1.28 45.2% 15.4% 4.7% 0.80 1.02
Ventura KCR 5.2 1.59 4.88 1.24 0.0% 13.0% 8.7% 0.00 1.33
Maurer SEA 77.2 6.95 4.23 1.66 25.0% 16.7% 7.1% 1.85 1.16

STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

TOP 10:

adam-wainwright-300x200

Adam Wainwright, STL (v. WAS) – I’m still not sure what happened in those two starts against Cincy when he allowed 15 ER in 8 IP, but he’s back on track with a 1.59 ERA over 22.7 IP in his last three starts including one in Colorado. He also has 22 Ks in that span. The Nats are clutching to a thread of a playoff hope, but that doesn’t change my outlook with them. In fact, I think Wainwright sends them a step closer to the grave.

Justin Verlander, DET (at MIN) – He still hasn’t been the Verlander of yesteryear, but he has a 3.25 ERA in 27.7 IP over four September starts with a 26/6 K/BB ratio. Unfortunately he’s just 1-2 in those starts. With a pair of starts this week, Verlander has a chance to cap his season nicely. He has a 3.32 ERA in three starts against the Twins this year including 21 Ks in 19 IP.

Johnny Cueto, CIN (v. NYM) – Even though he’s likely to be limited to five, maybe six innings, I still like Cueto today. He looked great in his return from the DL against the Astros throwing five scoreless and the Mets aren’t exactly a step up offensively so we could see something similar. The risk of a five-and-dive is the onus it puts on the rest of his teammates for a win as they need to score early and then hold it.

Derek Holland, TEX (v. HOU) – Perhaps surprisingly Holland only has a 3.75 ERA in two starts against the Astros this year. That’s not exactly bad, but most pitchers of his caliber have a sub-3.00 mark against them. After three duds to start the month, Holland rebounded his last time out with a 6 IP/2 ER effort against the Rays. This ranking is more about matchup than the way Holland is pitching right now.

tanner-roark-300x200

Tanner Roark, WAS (at STL) – Tough matchup against the Cards, but Roark is one of the hotter hands in baseball right now. He’s 3-0 in three starts since joining the rotation on September 7th with a 0.95 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, and a 13/2 K/BB ratio in 19 IP. The run has come against the Marlins, Mets, and Braves and the Cards are obviously better than all of those teams, but they haven’t been their usually excellent selves in September.

Jose Quintana, CWS (v. TOR) – Quintana has had a really good season improving on a breakout rookie season that saw him post a 3.76 ERA with modest skills. The Jays are terrible against lefties and Quintana has a 2.14 ERA in four starts over 21 IP. He’d seen his strikeout rate on the rise with a 24% rate in July and August, but it’s dipped back to a passable 18% mark in September.

Mike Minor, ATL (v. MIL) – He’s been OK lately with a 3.82 ERA in 33 IP over his last five. He’s just 1-2 in that span, but the 24/7 K/BB ratio isn’t bad. The competition has been modest for most of that run, too, which makes the near-4.00 ERA a bit more annoying.

charlie-morton-300x200

Charlie Morton, PIT (at CHC) – Morton has allowed 5 ER to the Cards twice since August 1st and still has a 3.19 ERA in those 10 starts thanks to a 1.99 ERA in the other eight outings. We’ve also seen Morton put up 20 strikeouts in 21.7 IP this September which is definitely new and help makes up for the fact that he’s just 1-1 in the four starts.

Garrett Richards, LAA (v. OAK) – Oakland has clinched the playoffs, but they still have a shot at the best overall record so don’t expect them to dial it back or anything. That said, I’m still fine starting Richards here. He’s have a great September with a 2.10 ERA in 25.7 IP over four starts including a 7 IP/1 ER effort against these A’s his last time out.

Marco Estrada, MIL (at ATL) – Since returning from the DL on August 7th Estrada has a 2.62 ERA in seven starts with a 42/8 K/BB ratio in 44.7 IP. He’s gone at least 6.7 IP in his last four, too, with at least six strikeouts in all of them. Unfortunately the Brewers don’t offer much support so he’s just 1-0 in those four outings.

BOTTOM FIVE:

ADVANCED METRICS: September 23rd, 2013

VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS OPP vs L/R OTHER ADVANCED STATS
PITCHER wOBA L ERA L wOBA R ERA R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Harang 0.352 5.75 0.350 5.49 0.254 0.730 0.291 4.79 0.267 93.08 64.5%
Cueto 0.271 2.74 0.292 3.26 0.238 0.679 0.252 3.68 0.216 85.90 64.8%
Estrada 0.304 3.59 0.311 4.87 0.252 0.735 0.276 4.13 0.241 93.68 65.1%
Minor 0.266 2.78 0.295 3.38 0.265 0.731 0.271 3.33 0.228 97.53 66.4%
Halladay 0.378 7.90 0.330 5.82 0.230 0.613 0.250 6.06 0.234 91.33 58.9%
Eovaldi 0.329 4.30 0.312 3.48 0.253 0.701 0.291 3.76 0.250 92.88 64.1%
Lyles 0.344 5.52 0.383 5.03 0.261 0.731 0.309 4.56 0.280 91.15 60.8%
Holland 0.304 3.83 0.330 3.42 0.256 0.707 0.305 3.58 0.254 99.61 65.0%
Morton 0.381 5.58 0.264 2.02 0.241 0.702 0.311 3.58 0.262 85.22 63.4%
Samardzija 0.352 4.62 0.318 4.38 0.242 0.700 0.313 3.80 0.253 105.58 62.9%
Verlander 0.301 3.18 0.339 4.48 0.237 0.692 0.313 3.45 0.253 109.50 65.9%
Pelfrey 0.349 5.18 0.362 5.63 0.293 0.796 0.338 4.04 0.298 93.75 61.0%
Happ 0.354 4.76 0.319 4.68 0.243 0.659 0.289 4.26 0.245 93.75 62.5%
Quintana 0.328 3.44 0.308 3.55 0.241 0.682 0.288 3.73 0.246 100.90 62.7%
Roark 0.262 2.20 0.163 0.36 0.277 0.747 0.232 2.16 0.181 47.00 66.8%
Wainwright 0.282 3.41 0.287 2.55 0.258 0.734 0.309 2.54 0.246 104.66 67.5%
Milone 0.341 5.70 0.336 3.90 0.258 0.752 0.285 4.40 0.259 95.58 63.9%
Richards 0.332 3.89 0.284 3.84 0.250 0.730 0.300 3.49 0.258 48.49 62.3%
McCarthy 0.318 3.99 0.355 5.27 0.242 0.671 0.330 3.61 0.297 91.40 68.7%
Stults 0.247 3.62 0.347 4.12 0.263 0.708 0.303 3.55 0.269 97.45 65.2%
Ventura 0.314 1.93 0.225 0.00 0.246 0.723 0.278 3.05 0.238 86.00 58.1%
Maurer 0.405 7.19 0.398 7.01 0.261 0.696 0.355 5.40 0.322 67.15 60.6%

Starting Pitcher Salaries: September 23rd, 2013

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

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About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.