Daily Pitcher Breakdown: September 24th, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Performance and Talent Statistics: September 24th, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redmond | TOR | 70.2 | 3.82 | 3.46 | 1.10 | 33.3% | 25.2% | 6.9% | 1.40 | 0.63 | |
| Tillman | BAL | 194.1 | 3.70 | 4.03 | 1.22 | 48.4% | 20.8% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 0.97 | |
| Santiago | CWS | 142.2 | 3.53 | 4.27 | 1.41 | 45.5% | 21.7% | 11.2% | 1.01 | 0.85 | |
| Jimenez | CLE | 169.2 | 3.39 | 3.88 | 1.35 | 43.3% | 24.0% | 10.5% | 0.85 | 1.17 | |
| Moore | TBR | 140.0 | 3.34 | 4.18 | 1.26 | 44.0% | 22.8% | 11.3% | 0.90 | 0.93 | |
| Kuroda | NYY | 195.2 | 3.17 | 3.78 | 1.16 | 51.6% | 18.2% | 5.1% | 0.87 | 1.51 | |
| Thornburg | MIL | 59.2 | 1.96 | 4.70 | 1.19 | 100.0% | 16.3% | 10.2% | 0.15 | 0.91 | |
| Garcia | ATL | 73.2 | 4.52 | 4.46 | 1.26 | 50.0% | 12.8% | 5.3% | 2.08 | 1.39 | |
| Niese | NYM | 130.0 | 3.81 | 4.12 | 1.45 | 50.0% | 17.0% | 7.9% | 0.69 | 1.84 | |
| Leake | CIN | 190.2 | 3.21 | 4.18 | 1.22 | 53.3% | 15.2% | 6.1% | 0.94 | 1.64 | |
| Miner | PHI | 22.1 | 3.22 | 4.59 | 1.52 | 0.0% | 15.8% | 11.9% | 1.21 | 1.59 | |
| Alvarez | MIA | 86.2 | 4.05 | 4.25 | 1.25 | 33.3% | 13.3% | 6.4% | 0.21 | 2.10 | |
| Peacock | HOU | 77.1 | 5.24 | 4.37 | 1.40 | 30.8% | 20.5% | 10.6% | 1.63 | 0.78 | |
| Darvish | TEX | 198.2 | 2.81 | 2.83 | 1.06 | 50.0% | 32.7% | 9.3% | 1.09 | 1.05 | |
| Cole | PIT | 111.1 | 3.23 | 3.45 | 1.16 | 55.6% | 21.1% | 6.1% | 0.57 | 1.86 | |
| Rusin | CHC | 64.0 | 3.52 | 4.76 | 1.30 | 41.7% | 13.1% | 8.6% | 0.98 | 1.67 | |
| Fister | DET | 201.1 | 3.71 | 3.53 | 1.31 | 51.6% | 17.8% | 5.1% | 0.58 | 2.24 | |
| Diamond | MIN | 118.2 | 5.54 | 5.10 | 1.53 | 27.3% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 1.29 | 1.51 | |
| Gonzalez | WAS | 188.2 | 3.39 | 3.80 | 1.27 | 61.3% | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.81 | 1.30 | |
| Wacha | STL | 56.0 | 3.21 | 3.41 | 1.21 | 50.0% | 24.2% | 7.4% | 0.80 | 1.10 | |
| Lackey | BOS | 183.1 | 3.44 | 3.56 | 1.16 | 53.6% | 20.7% | 5.2% | 1.13 | 1.34 | |
| Chatwood | COL | 104.1 | 3.36 | 4.22 | 1.49 | 52.6% | 14.2% | 8.9% | 0.43 | 2.79 | |
| Griffin | OAK | 195.0 | 3.78 | 4.06 | 1.12 | 35.5% | 20.5% | 6.6% | 1.62 | 0.64 | |
| Vargas | LAA | 134.2 | 4.28 | 4.34 | 1.44 | 45.5% | 17.0% | 7.3% | 1.14 | 1.08 | |
| Chen | KCR | 109.1 | 3.13 | 4.76 | 1.15 | 61.5% | 15.4% | 6.7% | 0.91 | 0.54 | |
| Paxton | SEA | 17.0 | 2.12 | 4.51 | 1.06 | 66.7% | 15.7% | 10.0% | 1.06 | 1.93 | |
| Miley | ARI | 189.2 | 3.75 | 4.07 | 1.33 | 48.4% | 17.4% | 8.1% | 1.00 | 1.89 | |
| Ross | SDP | 111.0 | 3.24 | 3.45 | 1.17 | 50.0% | 23.6% | 8.9% | 0.57 | 1.73 | |
| Ryu | LAD | 181.0 | 3.03 | 3.69 | 1.20 | 57.1% | 19.6% | 6.4% | 0.70 | 1.66 | |
| Cain | SFG | 177.1 | 4.06 | 3.85 | 1.14 | 55.2% | 21.1% | 7.1% | 1.07 | 0.97 | |
STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
TOP 13:
Yu Darvish, TEX (v. HOU) – Darvish has thrown the most innings against the Astros this year posting a 2.73 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in 29.7 IP with 43 (!!!) strikeouts and just eight walks. It’s still crazy to me that he has just 13 wins despite a 2.81 ERA, AL-best 6.2 H/9 rate, and MLB-best 260 Ks. He’s the obvious pick, but also the best one.
Doug Fister, DET (at MIN) – Fister also gets a division foe today and he’s excelled against the Twins in just two starts with a 3.07 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 14.7 IP. He also has a sharp 14/3 K/BB ratio. He’s been on a bit of a rollercoaster of late allowing 1, 7, 0, 5, 1, and 4 ER in his last six. Of course, if he keeps that trend going then this one will be a great start.
Gerrit Cole, PIT (at CHC) – The transformation and growth of Cole into a stud down the stretch has been tons of fun to watch. He struck out just 11 guys in his first four MLB starts and many wondered if and when the strikeouts would come, but that’s because those people are stupid. The stuff has always been there and it’s just always dumb to freak out over four starts. His Ks have been on the rise every month since that first one including a breakout of 33 in 26 September innings with a career-best 12 in his last outing. He had a 7 IP/1 ER/7 K outing against the Cubs two starts ago on September 14th, too.
Gio Gonzalez, WAS (at STL) – After a horrendous 3.3 IP/7 ER in Kansas City on August 23rd, Gonzalez has rebounded nicely over his last five outings with a 1.87 ERA in 33.7 IP along with 30 Ks and a 4-1 record. Unfortunately the Nats were officially eliminated from playoff contention yesterday, but I doubt they will just stop trying, though. The Cards have spent September as a below average team against lefties with a .306 wOBA (.321 is league average).
Ubaldo Jimenez, CLE (v. CWS) – I remain so thoroughly impressed with the re-emergence of Jimenez this season. This was a guy whose stock had plummeted to its lowest point ever with a 5.40 ERA in 176.7 IP last year and then a 7.12 ERA through April of this year suggesting that it might even get worse for the once-good pitcher. He threw seven shutout innings on April 29th cutting his ERA nearly three runs (that’s easy to do when you have a 10.06 ERA and it’s the first month of the season) and spurring a run of 2.65 ERA over 26 starts that has taken him from a #5 starter laughingstock to possibly the guy the Indians would turn to in a wildcard matchup (he’s slated to go Sunday, but if they clinch before then, they would likely hold him over). Part of that success has come against the White Sox including a September 14th start that saw him go 8.3 IP with 1 ER and 8 Ks notching his 12th win of the season.
Mike Leake, CIN (v. NYM) – Leake is riding a 20.3 IP scoreless streak over three starts, though the latest two were against the Cubs and Astros. Of course the Mets aren’t much better than either of those teams offensively. This spurt of excellence comes after a four start run during which Leake allowed a 7.89 ERA in just 21.7 IP giving up 4, 4, 5, and 6 ER. With the Reds still jockeying with the Pirates and Cards for the division crown, they will still be playing at full force which only helps Leake’s win probability against a poor Mets team.
Matt Cain, SF (v. LAD) – Have you noticed how quietly Cain has turned around his season? He took a 5.06 ERA into the All-Star Break and the only thing to derail him since the break was a minimum stay on the DL. He has a 2.34 ERA in 10 starts over 65.3 IP with 51 Ks and a 3.4 K/BB ratio. He’s just 3-3 in those 10 because the Giants are terrible, but he hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any single outing and he’s gone at least 6.3 IP in eight of the 10. He had a 7 IP/1 ER outing in LA against the Dodgers back on September 12th, too.
Michael Wacha, STL (v. WAS) – He has a 2.38 ERA in four September starts along with 19 Ks in 22.7 IP and most of the damage came in Colorado when he allowed 12 hits and 4 ER in 4.7 IP. He has a 1.00 ERA in 18 IP over the other three starts. Like I said earlier, the Nats are no longer in contention, but I doubt they just shut it down and stop trying. Even still, I think Wacha is a nice option today.
Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD (at SF) – Ryu certainly deserves better than his 1-4 record over his last five given that he has a 3.58 ERA and 23/4 K/BB ratio in the 32.7 IP. He has a tremendous 2.81 ERA against the Giants in four starts this year, but his 1.52 WHIP and 12/9 K/BB ratio suggest he’s been a bit lucky. Of course the Giants are terrible so I’d still be willing to bet on Ryu.
Tyson Ross, SD (v. ARI) – It was nice to see him get back on track after a horrendous 0.7 IP/6 ER outing in Philly. He then went 7 IP/2 ER in Pittsburgh with 7 Ks so who knows what went wrong in Philly. He’d been excellent before that meltdown so I’m willing to chalk it up as a rough outing and move on. I love him as a secondary option today, but I’d even consider him as a low-dollar primary option, too.
Jon Niese, NYM (at CIN) – Niese has a 3.06 ERA in eight starts since returning from the DL and the lefty sets up well against the Reds, who have all of their force come from the left side: Joey Votto, Shin-Soo Choo, and Jay Bruce. In fact, the Reds have struggled against southpaws all year long and continue to do so in September with a .296 wOBA in September.
Wade Miley, ARI (at SD) – It’s been a mixed bag for Miley against the Padres this year. He has a 5.82 ERA against them in four starts, but he had a 7 IP/2 ER outing his last time against them on August 28th (though he did take the loss). The Padres are better against lefties overall, but they are still just above average in wOBA against lefties for the season and they are well below for September.
John Lackey, BOS (at COL) – I’ve loved what Lackey has done this year, but I’m cautious with just about anyone in Coors Field, even a guy who is coming off of a complete game with 1 ER and 8 Ks against the O’s like Lackey.
WORTH A LOOK:
It’s a deep slate today so here a few others you should look at:
Chris Tillman, BAL (v. TOR) – He has a 3.40 ERA and 41 Ks in his last six spanning 42.3 IP including a decent 8 IP/4 ER outing against the Jays.
Matt Moore, TB (at NYY) – He just likes to drop a 5 ER outing on us every once in a while. He has three 5 ER outings over his last 12 on June 14th, July 28th, and September 19th, but he’s still posted a 2.92 ERA in those 71 IP with 71 Ks and a 7-2 record. There’s meltdown potential, but the upside is still huge.
Hiroki Kuroda, NYY (v. TB) – He was one of baseball’s best through mid-August with a 2.33 ERA in 24 starts, but he has a 6.37 ERA over his last seven with only two quality starts in that span. I don’t know if he’s just worn down due to the grind of the season as a 38-year old or if something bigger is wrong. I’d be careful here.
Tyler Chatwood, COL (v. BOS) – He’s been just OK since returning from the DL with a 4.34 ERA but a 4/12 K/BB ratio. Don’t like him as anything more than a secondary option against the Sox today.
BOTTOM FIVE:
- Hector Santiago, CWS
- Freddy Garcia, ATL
- Zach Miner, PHI
- Brad Peacock, HOU
- Scott Diamond, MIN
ADVANCED METRICS: September 24th, 2013
| VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS | OPP vs L/R | OTHER ADVANCED STATS | |||||||||||
| PITCHER | wOBA L | ERA L | wOBA R | ERA R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% | ||
| Redmond | 0.297 | 3.72 | 0.329 | 3.93 | 0.267 | 0.767 | 0.261 | 4.11 | 0.220 | 78.13 | 64.1% | ||
| Tillman | 0.314 | 3.83 | 0.314 | 3.62 | 0.254 | 0.744 | 0.264 | 4.48 | 0.236 | 105.68 | 64.0% | ||
| Santiago | 0.323 | 3.02 | 0.341 | 3.81 | 0.270 | 0.768 | 0.293 | 4.37 | 0.241 | 78.79 | 61.4% | ||
| Jimenez | 0.301 | 3.35 | 0.332 | 3.55 | 0.251 | 0.682 | 0.301 | 3.62 | 0.237 | 98.63 | 61.7% | ||
| Moore | 0.285 | 2.53 | 0.299 | 3.70 | 0.249 | 0.688 | 0.257 | 3.94 | 0.211 | 96.84 | 60.4% | ||
| Kuroda | 0.329 | 3.81 | 0.273 | 2.46 | 0.250 | 0.734 | 0.284 | 3.54 | 0.247 | 100.10 | 63.4% | ||
| Thornburg | 0.249 | 1.99 | 0.305 | 2.03 | 0.252 | 0.735 | 0.256 | 3.33 | 0.212 | 57.24 | 60.7% | ||
| Garcia | 0.373 | 5.20 | 0.306 | 3.89 | 0.250 | 0.702 | 0.260 | 5.68 | 0.268 | 67.50 | 65.2% | ||
| Niese | 4.18 | 3.70 | 0.242 | 0.709 | 0.324 | 3.69 | 3.890 | 97.73 | 64.0% | ||||
| Leake | 0.308 | 2.77 | 0.315 | 3.60 | 0.238 | 0.679 | 0.277 | 4.00 | 0.252 | 95.23 | 63.3% | ||
| Miner | 0.334 | 3.86 | 0.349 | 3.00 | 0.230 | 0.613 | 0.279 | 5.24 | 0.253 | 30.07 | 56.1% | ||
| Alvarez | 0.364 | 4.70 | 0.264 | 3.54 | 0.253 | 0.701 | 0.295 | 3.25 | 0.257 | 82.87 | 65.5% | ||
| Peacock | 0.402 | 7.23 | 0.274 | 2.86 | 0.261 | 0.731 | 0.266 | 5.11 | 0.238 | 81.94 | 60.4% | ||
| Darvish | 0.302 | 3.03 | 0.238 | 2.57 | 0.239 | 0.679 | 0.263 | 3.24 | 0.192 | 108.87 | 62.7% | ||
| Cole | 0.276 | 3.21 | 0.289 | 3.34 | 0.241 | 0.702 | 0.303 | 2.99 | 0.246 | 90.72 | 64.9% | ||
| Rusin | 0.234 | 2.81 | 0.347 | 3.80 | 0.263 | 0.740 | 0.265 | 4.60 | 0.248 | 80.83 | 61.5% | ||
| Fister | 0.305 | 4.06 | 0.339 | 3.30 | 0.237 | 0.692 | 0.330 | 3.27 | 0.278 | 104.16 | 64.4% | ||
| Diamond | 0.416 | 5.23 | 0.364 | 5.61 | 0.268 | 0.763 | 0.309 | 5.05 | 0.304 | 91.45 | 61.9% | ||
| Gonzalez | 0.252 | 3.00 | 0.322 | 3.54 | 0.234 | 0.666 | 0.285 | 3.49 | 0.228 | 103.39 | 62.4% | ||
| Wacha | 0.243 | 1.84 | 0.338 | 4.73 | 0.258 | 0.734 | 0.301 | 3.12 | 0.238 | 65.86 | 64.6% | ||
| Lackey | 0.287 | 2.91 | 0.333 | 4.13 | 0.268 | 0.748 | 0.284 | 3.72 | 0.244 | 99.50 | 66.5% | ||
| Chatwood | 0.343 | 3.13 | 0.326 | 3.61 | 0.284 | 0.819 | 0.325 | 3.68 | 0.283 | 88.32 | 60.9% | ||
| Griffin | 0.301 | 3.96 | 0.307 | 3.61 | 0.270 | 0.753 | 0.240 | 4.56 | 0.223 | 100.55 | 64.4% | ||
| Vargas | 0.359 | 2.86 | 0.344 | 4.85 | 0.257 | 0.759 | 0.317 | 4.27 | 0.280 | 99.00 | 63.5% | ||
| Chen | 0.348 | 4.24 | 0.267 | 2.69 | 0.227 | 0.650 | 0.254 | 4.00 | 0.231 | 55.75 | 66.1% | ||
| Paxton | 0.456 | 5.40 | 0.244 | 1.76 | 0.263 | 0.697 | 0.180 | 4.52 | 0.175 | 95.67 | 62.7% | ||
| Miley | 0.308 | 4.08 | 0.333 | 3.73 | 0.254 | 0.727 | 0.296 | 4.11 | 0.260 | 97.77 | 62.6% | ||
| Ross | 0.327 | 4.29 | 0.260 | 2.31 | 0.258 | 0.717 | 0.285 | 3.18 | 0.223 | 54.42 | 61.7% | ||
| Ryu | 0.329 | 3.43 | 0.287 | 2.91 | 0.260 | 0.689 | 0.294 | 3.26 | 0.247 | 103.21 | 64.2% | ||
| Cain | 0.289 | 3.74 | 0.306 | 4.38 | 0.270 | 0.730 | 0.261 | 3.80 | 0.224 | 97.31 | 64.3% | ||
- Opp Avg vs. L/R – Opponent Batting Average vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- Opp OPS vs. L/R – Opponent On Base + Slugging Percentage vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- wOBA-L and wOBA-R – Pitcher Weighted On Base Percentage Against vs. Left/Right Handed Batters
- ERA-L and ERA-R – Pitcher Earned Run Average against Left/Right Handed Batters
- BABIP – Pitcher Batting Average Against on Balls In Play
- FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching
- Pit/G – Average Pitches Thrown Per Game
- Strk% – Percentage of Pitches for Strikes
Starting Pitcher Salaries: September 24th, 2013
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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