Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Game 6 Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | +155 |
| Phillies Odds | -180 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Date | Mon, Oct. 23 |
| Time | 5:07 p.m. |
| TV | TBS |
On Monday evening, the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies will play Game 6 of this year’s National League Championship Series. Philadelphia leads the NLCS 3-2 and can punch their ticket to their second consecutive Fall Classic with a victory this evening. Arizona will send Merrill Kelly to the mound as they look to extend their season by at least one more game. The Phillies will counter with Aaron Nola. The first pitch is scheduled for 5:07 p.m. ET on TBS.
Ahead of the first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Phillies as -180 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 7.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Merrill Kelly on the bump for Arizona
Merrill Kelly will make his third start of the postseason tonight against the Phillies, looking to bounce back from a rough outing in Game 2. In that start, Kelly allowed four earned runs in 5.2 innings of work.
During the regular season, Kelly struggled to a 4.31 FIP and a 1.38 WHIP on the road. His strikeout percentage was 6.3% lower on the road than at home, and his opponent’s batting average jumped from .183 at home to .261 on the road. Tonight, he will be facing a dangerous Philadelphia lineup for the second time in less than a week. Hyper-proximity matchups are major advantages for the offense and major disadvantage for the opposing pitcher. Kelly does not project well in this spot on Monday night.
Arizona offense is nowhere to be found
The opening sentence of this section has continued to grow throughout the series, so to save everyone time today, we are only going to use seven words to describe Arizona’s lineup – this offense is nowhere to be found.
The Diamondbacks have the worst offense of any team remaining in these playoffs, and it’s not particularly close. This fact manifested itself again in Game 5 when Arizona scored only one run in their biggest game of the season.
Following the All-Star break, the Diamondbacks ranked 23rd in OPS and 26th in ISO against right-handed pitching. Though Arizona managed six runs in Game 4, four of those six runs came primarily as a result of Manager Rob Thompson misusing his bullpen, which was overtaxed. Facing Zack Wheeler the following day, Arizona’s offense was put back into their place in the basement.
Arizona, once again, did not even attempt a stolen base in Game 5. Teams have the ability to run on Aaron Nola, but Manager Tony Lovullo has been extremely risk-averse in this series, so we should not expect anything drastically different from him in Game 6.
Arizona bullpen a concern
A scheduled off-day on Sunday means that the entire Arizona arm barn is available and mostly rested tonight. However, that does not change the fact that this unit has only two reliable arms plus one serviceable arm.
Other than Paul Sewald and Kevin Ginkel, there are a lot of question marks in this bullpen, which is obviously far from ideal going into an elimination game. Though we often see managers shorten the leash for their starters in these situations, it does not make much sense for Lovullo to rush into his middle relief options this evening. If anything, we should expect to see Sewald, Ginkel, and Ryan Thompson earlier than we have seen them used so far in this series.
Philadelphia Phillies
Aaron Nola gets the ball for Philadelphia in Game 6
Does anybody remember how inconsistent Aaron Nola was during the regular season? Probably not.
It is amazing what three good starts and a catchy “Phillies win” song will do for a player’s public relations. Nola has been dominant to begin this postseason, with a 0.96 ERA across 18.2 innings of work. Philadelphia is 3-0 in his trips to the mound, with their three wins coming by a combined score of 27-3.
Nola’s velocity and spin rates were up once again in Game 2, relative to his regular season averages. Assuming those metrics hold for Game 6, he should have little trouble navigating a weak-hitting Arizona lineup tonight.
Phillies offense continues to mash
Entering play on Monday, Philadelphia has four everyday starters in their lineup with a 1.010 OPS or better this postseason – Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick Castellanos. Brandon Marsh and J.T. Realmuto have also been strong contributors, with a .931 OPS and an .863 OPS , respectively.
When six of the nine players in the lineup are swinging the bats as well as they are for the Phillies, it is extremely difficult for opposing pitchers to have much success. Unsurprisingly, Philadelphia has scored at least five runs in four of the first five games in this series.
Facing Merrill Kelly for the second time in less than a week, this lineup is well-positioned to do damage again this evening.
Philadelphia pitchers taking matters into their own hands
Manager Rob Thompson has inexplicably misused a wealth of relief talent so far in this series, but he still finds himself within one game of another World Series. In Game 5, Philadelphia’s pitching staff removed Thompson from the equation nearly altogether, with Zack Wheeler lasting seven innings before turning the ball over to the bullpen for two innings with a five-run lead.
Coming back home for Game 6, the Phillies will have everyone available, though Jeff Hoffman, Seranthony Dominguez, and Matt Strahm should be last-resort options after appearing on both Friday and Saturday. Hoffman has appeared in each of the last three games, which should make him borderline untouchable tonight.
Even without those three guys, Thompson has Craig Kimbrel, Gregory Soto, Jose Alvarado, and Orion Kerkering as respectable options. This group has enough talent to put the finishing touches on a win tonight if the opportunity presents itself.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies – Picks & Predictions
Philadelphia is the better team in this series, and it is not particularly close. In Game 6, they once again have the better starting pitcher, the better lineup, and a more talented bullpen. Assuming Aaron Nola continues his recent run of dominance, the Phillies should find themselves with a late-inning lead and a great opportunity to advance to their second consecutive World Series. The Phillies moneyline is a worthwhile risk on Monday. The spread is likely worth considering as well.
PICK: Phillies Moneyline (-180, Fanatics Sportsbook)