Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Game 3 Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Odds
| Dodgers Odds | -135 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | +115 |
| Over/Under | 9.5 |
| Date | Wed, Oct. 11 |
| Time | 9:07 p.m. |
| TV | TBS |
Following a 100-win regular season, the Los Angeles Dodgers find themselves on the brink of a very early exit in the postseason for the second consecutive season. The 84-win Arizona Diamondbacks have won each of their first four postseason games this October and are now one win away from their first National League Championship Series appearance since 2007. First pitch between these two clubs is scheduled for 9:07 p.m. ET tonight on TBS.
Ahead of first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Dodgers as -135 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 9.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Los Angeles Dodgers
All eyes on Lance Lynn
Lance Lynn initially pitched well for the Dodgers after being acquired at the trade deadline, posting a 2.03 ERA in his first five starts with his new team. However, there were significant red flags during that stretch – namely, a 4.68 FIP and a .244 BABIP. Across his final six turns in the rotation, Lynn had a dismal 6.56 ERA, 7.56 FIP, and 1.45 WHIP, despite facing only one playoff team in that span.
Lynn’s 14.7% strikeout rate and double-digit walk percentage in his final six starts, coupled with a 10.9% barrel rate allowed, makes it hard to be too optimistic about him heading into October. However, he has a favorable matchup in Game 3 against an Arizona offense that ranked 28th in OPS and 28th in ISO against right-handed pitching during the month of September. It is not unreasonable to expect him to, at least, keep Los Angeles in this ballgame through the first few innings tonight before handing things over to the bullpen.
Mookie Betts, Dodgers’ lineup looking for bounce-back performance on Wednesday
Following the All-Star break, the Dodgers offense ranked 2nd in OPS, 9th in ISO, 6th in walk percentage, and 6th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. During that stretch, no team in baseball hit line drives more often than Los Angeles, and only Minnesota and Seattle hit fewer ground balls. Yet, all of these regular season data points have failed to translate to October, at least so far.
Through two games, which is an extremely small sample size in baseball terms, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman have combined to go 1-for-13 (.076 batting average) at the plate. Overall, the offense has produced only four runs in 18 innings worth of at-bats.
Much has been made of the fact that Los Angeles had nearly a week off between the end of the regular season and their first postseason contest. To this point, rust has seemed to play a major factor in this series. The talent in this lineup is undeniable, but it is far from a guarantee that we see this group produce at their usual levels in Game 3, even in a favorable matchup.
All hands on deck for Los Angeles bullpen
During the second half of the regular season, the Dodgers relief unit led all of baseball in FIP, WHIP, and opponent batting average. During that stretch, they also ranked 7th in strikeout rate and 3rd in walk percentage.
Unfortunately for manager Dave Roberts, he has been forced to use his bullpen far more than he would have liked through two games against the Diamondbacks. Joe Kelly, Ryan Brasier, Evan Phillips, and Brusdar Graterol each tossed at least 23 pitches on Monday. The off-day yesterday means that everyone should be available and fatigue should not be a huge factor in Game 3. Still, Roberts would like to avoid asking his relief corps to cover 7.1 innings again on Wednesday if at all possible, especially with no off-day tomorrow if Los Angeles is able to force a Game 4.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Brandon Pfaadt gets the ball for Arizona in Game 4
Making his postseason debut during the Wild Card round, Brandon Pfaadt struggled mightily, allowing three earned runs on seven hits in only 2.2 innings of work. On Wednesday, Pfaadt has an even more difficult matchup, at least on paper, against a Los Angeles offense that finished second in Major League Baseball in runs scored during the regular season.
Pfaadt had stark time-through-the-order (TTO) splits this season – posting a 2.37 FIP his first TTO, but a 6.37 FIP his second TTO. It would not be surprising to see the Diamondbacks limit Pfaadt’s exposure in this contest, which could mean another abbreviated outing tonight before getting the arm barn involved.
Diamondbacks offense overperforming expectations in postseason
Prior to the NL Wild Card round, the Diamondbacks had scored three runs or fewer in five consecutive games. Across their final 22 regular season games, Arizona amassed an MLB-worst 13 home runs and ranked 27th in OPS. Facing right-handed pitching, Arizona ranked 28th in OPS and 28th in ISO during the month of September.
Yet, Arizona managed to score 11 runs in two games against the Milwaukee Brewers in the Wild Card round and they have scored 15 runs in their first two games against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Division Series.
Over the course of a large sample size, this Arizona offense is more likely to resemble their September struggles than their October onslaught, but the postseason is not a large sample size. This offense gets another favorable matchup on Wednesday against Lance Lynn, who was one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball across the final month of the regular season. Arizona’s improbable offensive run could continue for at least one more game.
Arizona’s bullpen looking to punch ticket to NLCS
One of Arizona’s biggest vulnerabilities going into this series was their middle relief options. However, Merrill Kelly delivered 6.1 innings of shutout baseball for Arizona in Game 1 and Zac Gallen pitched into the sixth inning in Game 2, which shortened the bridge to manager Tony Lovullo’s high-leverage options. Length from the starting pitchers has also helped limit the backend arms from overuse through two games, which means that everyone, including Kevin Ginkel and Paul Sewald are available and rested for Game 3. If Pfaadt can keep Arizona in this game through three innings, Arizona will have a good opportunity to finish off a series sweep.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks – Picks & Predictions
Though the Dodgers have lacked their usual offensive prowess in the first two games of this series, there were signs of life in Game 2. Despite scoring only two runs, Los Angeles had multiple prime opportunities to take a lead in the latter innings, but left seven men-on-base. Tonight, they have the the better offense, and the better bullpen. At such short odds, it is worth taking a stab on Los Angeles to extend their season at least one more day. Tomorrow could be a different story.
PICK: Dodgers moneyline (-135, Fanatics Sportsbook)