Dodgers vs. Giants NLDS Game 1: Odds, Preview, Picks & Prediction
Dodgers vs. Giants Odds
| Dodgers Odds | -118 |
| Giants Odds | +100 |
| Over/Under | 7 |
| Date | Friday, Oct. 8 |
| Time | 9:37 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
On Friday evening, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants will battle in the National League Division Series at Oracle Park. Entering play, Los Angeles has won 19 of their last 22 games. San Francisco has won 21 of their last 26 contests. In Game 1, the Dodgers will send Walker Buehler to the hill. He will be opposed by Logan Webb. Oddsmakers are anticipating the Dodgers securing a win in the series opener, pricing Los Angeles as -118 road favorites.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this NLDS Game 1 matchup on Friday.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-118)
In 33 starts this year for the Dodgers, Buehler was dominant with a 2.47 ERA, 3.08 xERA, and a 3.15 FIP. He ranked in the 63rd percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel-rate, strikeout and walk percentage, and chase rate. In the second-half of the campaign, Buehler posted a 2.60 ERA and a 2.81 FIP in 15 starts. During the 2020 postseason, Buehler allowed only five earned runs in 25 innings of work (1.80 ERA), but he allowed six earned runs in only three innings in his most recent start against San Francisco. Buehler is an outstanding pitcher, but this will be his sixth start against the Giants in 2021. He will have a difficult task trying to slow down a dangerous opposing lineup in this one.
The Los Angeles lineup features big names such as Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Trea Turner, Justin Turner, Will Smith, A.J. Pollock, and Cody Bellinger. However, this group underperformed expectations by a wide margin this summer and were only slightly better than mediocre at the plate for the majority of the campaign. Still, this offense started to come alive over the final month of the regular season—ranking seventh in OPS and third in ISO after September 1. It is worth noting that Max Muncy is unlikely to be available for this game, but this is still a collection of talented hitters capable of generating a number of run-scoring opportunities.
In their thrilling Wild Card win on Thursday night, the Dodgers used Blake Treinen, Kenley Jansen, Joe Kelly, Corey Knebel, and Brusdar Graterol in relief. However, none of these pitchers had appeared in a game since Sunday, and the off-day on Friday should alleviate any minor usage concerns. Since September 1, the Dodgers relief unit ranks eighth in the league in bullpen FIP. There is no shortage of talent for Manager Dave Roberts to turn to in the late innings.
San Francisco Giants (+100)
Webb has been tabbed by advanced statisticians for years as a breakout candidate, and it finally manifested on the field in 2021. Across 148.1 innings of work, Webb posted a 3.03 ERA, 3.22 xERA, and a 2.72 FIP. He ranked in the 66th percentile or better in average exit velocity, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel-rate, strikeout and walk percentage, whiff-rate, and chase rate. He was at his best when pitching in the comfort of his home ballpark—delivering a 2.35 FIP, 30.6 strikeout percentage, and a 0.95 FIP at Oracle Park this year. Bettors should expect a strong outing from Webb on the mound in his postseason debut.
Against right-handed pitching in 2021, the Giants ranked fifth in OPS, third in ISO, fourth in walk-rate, and 21st in strikeout percentage. This offense is paced by two familiar names—Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford, each of whom had a wRC+ of 139 or better this year. Unfortunately for San Francisco, they will be without arguably their best hitter for the remainder of the postseason after Brandon Belt suffered a broken thumb during the final week of the regular season. Still, this lineup is not short on talent and should be capable of putting some runs on the board in this series.
The Giants have not played a baseball game since last Sunday, meaning that every member of their relief unit is rested and available for Friday’s action. Since September 1, San Francisco’s relief corps ranks seventh in bullpen FIP. If Webb struggles even a little bit, expect Manager Gabe Kapler to be aggressive in using his talented relievers.
Game 1 Pick
At first pitch on Friday, the temperature is forecasted to be in the mid-50s with the usual heavy air that is seemingly always present in the Bay Area. Since the beginning of the 2019 season, Oracle Park has produced the third-fewest offense of any venue in Major League Baseball in night games, including a home run rate that is 24 percent below league average. Buehler and Webb have been two of the best pitchers in baseball since the All-Star break. Both of these offenses are missing arguably their best hitter from the regular season, due to injury. Bettors should expect a low-scoring affair in this one. Take the under.
PICK: Under 7 (-110)
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