Dodgers vs. Phillies Odds, Picks, & Prediction for Wednesday, August 11th
Dodgers vs. Phillies Odds
| Los Angeles Dodgers Odds | -138 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | +118 |
| Over/Under | 10 |
| Date | Wednesday, Aug. 11 |
| Time | 7:05 pm ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds accurate as of Wednesday at BetMGM | |
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Unfortunately, last night’s game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Philadelphia Phillies was unexpectedly delayed by an intense storm that rolled through Citizens Bank Park in the fourth inning. At the time of the delay, Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola were locked into a zero-zero pitchers’ duel, but neither pitcher came back out to the mound after the lengthy stop in action. Tonight, MLB odds unsurprisingly make the Dodgers the betting favorite again. The starting pitching matchup between these two teams will feature David Price for Los Angeles, who will be opposed by Kyle Gibson.
Pitching Preview
Sportsbooks have the Dodgers at only (-138) odds for tonight’s game — a dramatic difference from yesterday’s opening line that had Los Angeles at -172 in a more equal pitching matchup. Oddsmakers are seemingly hesitant to believe in Price on the mound, but he has been excellent since June 25 with a 3.08 ERA and a 4.04 xFIP. During that stretch, he owns a stellar 1.03 WHIP with a respectable 20.0 strikeout-percentage against a 6.3 percent walk-rate. His .222 BABIP will unquestionably regress at some point, but the good fortune on balls in play has not been completely attributable to luck. In his last nine trips to the mound, he has allowed an outstanding 5.3 percent barrel-rate and only a 34.2 percent hard-hit rate. Price draws a difficult matchup tonight against a Phillies lineup that ranks fifth in OPS and fourth in ISO over the last two weeks, but he should be able to keep the Dodgers competitive in this one.
Conversely, Gibson seems to be getting too much respect from oddsmakers here. His season-long numbers, including a 2.79 ERA, 3.69 xERA, and a 3.72 FIP are strong, but he has struggled in his last five trips to the mound with a 5.40 ERA and a 4.64 FIP. Across his last 30.0 innings of work, he has nearly walked more batters than he has struck-out, which has led to a dangerously-high 1.63 WHIP. Gibson has still done a great job at limiting hard-contact during this recent cold-stretch, but pitching with men on base too frequently is inherently a disaster waiting to happen.
It is important to note that Phillies’ slugger Rhys Hoskins was placed on the injured list this morning as he continues to nurse a left groin strain. He has not played since August 5. For the Dodgers, Mookie Betts is likely to be heading to the injured list as well after his right hip flared up on him again in a game against the Los Angeles Angels on August 7. Manager Dave Roberts also announced that he does not expect Justin Turner to be back in the Dodgers lineup before their series opener in New York on Friday.
Dodgers-Phillies Betting Picks
There are a number of injuries to be mindful of before placing a wager in this one, but the data points to a Los Angeles victory on Wednesday night. Price is no longer one of the premier pitchers in the league, but he should be able to out-duel Gibson, who has struggled mightily as of late. If this game is close into the late-innings, the Dodgers have a decisive talent advantage in the bullpen. Bettors should put their faith in Los Angeles in this one, and they should be grateful to get one of the best teams in baseball at such a cheap price on the money line.
Pick: Dodgers ML (-138)
Thus far in 2021, Citizens Bank Park has produced the 18th-most offense of any venue in Major League Baseball in night games. Tonight, there are once again a number of key offensive players that will be out of the lineup, which is likely to keep the game relatively low-scoring. At first pitch, the temperature is forecasted to be near 90 degrees with a slight wind blowing out towards center field, but humidity approaching 70 percent is likely to benefit the pitchers—cancelling out the other weather conditions that favor hitting tonight. Price and Gibson are far from elite options on the mound, so do not go crazy betting the total here, but a small play on the under could be a profitable endeavor.
Pick: Under 10 (-110)
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