Primetime Parlay: Dolphins vs. Patriots Same Game Parlay Picks
Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped us create a variety of fun same-game parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting sites. Along with the simulation, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same-game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a Sunday Night Football same-game parlay for the Miami Dolphins versus the New England Patriots.
After an opening week performance that placed Tua Tagovailoa atop the NFL MVP betting odds board, the Dolphins travel to New England for a division rivalry game against the New England Patriots. Despite a couple of early miscues, the Patriots were very game in a defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Dolphins outlasted the Chargers in Los Angeles off the back of a career performance out of Tua and the Dolphins’ offense. Can the Dolphins repeat this level of offensive success, or do the Patriots have the ability to slow down Miami? Let’s start with betting odds, injuries, and statistics before building a same game parlay for tonight.
Dolphins vs. Patriots Same Game Parlay
The Dolphins are 2.5-point favorites for Sunday Night Football on FanDuel Sportsbook. The implied game total sits at 45.5 points at the time of this writing. On the road and in the division, sports betting sites are making a strong statement about the Dolphins’ prospects going forward.
The betting public doesn’t seem to agree with the bookmakers, as SAO reports 60% of both betting tickets and betting handle sit with New England for tonight’s game. With respect to total points, 70% of tickets and money were placed on the under throughout the week. While the Miami offense was explosive, the New England defense held Jalen Hurts and the Eagles in check in Week 1.
The Dolphins come into this game pretty healthy. LT Terron Armstead is questionable but likely to play after logging practices this week. Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert were removed from the injury report and will play on Sunday night.
The Patriots do not present as clean a bill of health. The entire offensive line is questionable with a slew of injuries. The Patriots will be fortunate to have multiple starters play tonight. A Dolphins’ front that is not that imposing might become very threatening against a backup line. Devante Parker is also questionable for the contest.
Will Bill Belichick be able to slow this offense down? Belichick is known for shutting down the best weapon on an opposing offense. I am not sure that completely shutting down Tyreek Hill is likely with Hill’s otherworldly speed and athleticism. With that said, the Dolphins present very capable weapons across the board and an exceptionally creative rushing attack.
The New England offense saw an incredible second-half performance from Kendrick Bourne but otherwise don’t seem to have the firepower to keep up in a high-paced game. Rhamondre Stevenson could see plenty of work out of the backfield if the offensive line is patched together.
While we love points in prime time, this game could be a slog if the Patriots get their way. Let’s take a look at what ParlayIQ thinks about this game through thousands of simulations powered by RotoGrinders’ projections.
Same Game Parlay Picks for SNF
Tua Tagovailoa Under 268.5 Passing Yards
After setting the NFL on fire with an exceptional performance against the Chargers, Tua returns to unfriendly confines in Foxboro. While his record against the Patriots is stellar, that does not necessarily mean Tua must load up on the box score.
The Patriots held Jalen Hurts in check. While the argument could be made that Tua is a better passer than Hurts, Bill Belichick and his defense have a habit of slowing things down. Further, the Dolphins struggled to stop the rushing attack of the Chargers. I am sure the Patriots would love nothing more than to feed Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott as often as possible to keep the ball out of Tua’s hands.
The Dolphins could win this game without Tua exploding again. ParlayIQ is in favor of this as a starting point — finding this under in more than 50% of simulations of this game. We begin here.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 50.5 Rushing Yards
As mentioned above, I expect the Patriots to emphasize the ground game if the game is close. With the offensive line concerns, I cannot imagine the Patriots would prefer to have Mac Jones drop back with barely any room to run.
Instead, the Patriots should focus on one of their best offensive weapons and give Stevenson the ball early and often. Even with the presence of Zeke, Stevenson is still the best weapon out of the backfield for Mac Jones and company.
ParlayIQ expects this outcome better than 50% of the time when starting with Tua’s under. The correlation between these two outcomes is very positive with Tua less likely to put up big numbers if he doesn’t have the ball.
Durham Smythe Over 23.5 Receiving Yards
Last season, I learned if you sneak in just a single negative correlation, FanDuel will normally reward you with far greater odds than that projected by our simulations. If Tua goes under, we would expect his receivers to go under as well.
Well, not for me. Durham Smythe was far more involved in the Miami offense last weekend and can surely exceed this prop even if Tua doesn’t put up a mountainous passing number. With either Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle likely to receive a bulk of the attention, Smythe might be counted on this evening. Tua’s game is all about timing and quick throws. If Smythe is open short, Tua will find him.
Ezekiel Elliott Over 7.5 Receiving Yards
Finally, with the offensive line banged up, Zeke might receive more opportunities on the field. While his athleticism has waned, nobody can deny that Elliott is a great pass blocker. His abilities might be necessary if the Patriots go down in this contest.
If the Miami defense pins their ears back, Elliott could sneak out for a quick screen or a swing pass as the Dolphins’ pass rush overwhelms Mac Jones. I have not had much luck with running backs thus far but think that this number is pretty low given Zeke’s usage in passing situations.
Good luck tonight as we sweat this ticket out in what should be a competitive AFC East matchup.
Dolphins vs. Patriots Parlay Odds
- Tua Tagovailoa Under 268.5 Passing Yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson Over 50.5 Rushing Yards
- Durham Smythe Over 23.5 Receiving Yards
- Ezekiel Elliott Over 7.5 Receiving Yards
Here is a look at what ParlayIQ suggests for a ticket price on Sunday night:
Here is a look at our ticket on FanDuel Sportsbook:
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Parlay Odds: +1450
Risk: 1/2 unit to win 7.5 units
Good luck with all of your bets and plays this evening. Share your parlays with me on Twitter. First touchdown scorers? Touchdowns? DFS lineups? Player props? Thanks for reading.