Draft NFL Premium: Value Watch - Week 14
Each week, Justin Van Zuiden will list the players he is overweight (heavier exposure than the field) and underweight (lower exposure than the field) on. Dominate your DRAFT drafts with this cheat sheet from one of the best in daily fantasy sports!
Players I Am Overweight On
Derek Carr – He is buried on the list of quarterbacks this week, barely above the likes of Blake Bortles and Trevor Siemian in the DRAFT pre-rankings. Don’t forget that Carr sliced up this Chiefs defense for over 400 yards in the first meeting between these teams. He also gets Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree back this week. It’s a great week to wait on your QB selection until the final round, and Carr might even be there in eight and ten man drafts. Buy.
Tom Brady – Brady would be my ideal QB selection in two and three-man drafts. I don’t love any of the other high-end quarterbacks this week, so I might even look to draft him in the second or third round, even in the small field format. He should be able to rebound from a poor game last week as he takes on a weak Dolphins defense that he tossed four touchdowns against just two weeks ago.
Le’Veon Bell – He would be my top overall pick despite a tough matchup against the Ravens. He carried the ball 35 times against this team in their first meeting and found the end zone twice. His floor is as safe as it gets, and he should be asked to contribute more in the passing game with JuJu Smith-Schuster suspended for this one.
Mike Davis – If you are looking for a value running back in the later rounds of your larger field DRAFT games, here you go. Davis tallied 101 scrimmage yards against the Eagles last Sunday and looked as good as any Seattle runner has looked in a game all year. He should get every opportunity to carry the offense, and this is a tough matchup for the passing game.
LeSean McCoy – He has been nothing short of a disappointment of late, but a matchup against Indianapolis should be a good elixir. While the Colts have been decent against the run at times this year, McCoy’s dual threat ability to contribute in the passing and running game should serve him well in this one. I don’t love paying up for him on salary cap sites, but he’ll drop far too much in many DRAFT contests.
Josh Gordon – The weather is scaring me a little bit, so I will monitor this closely. Otherwise, I love this spot for Gordon. He returned and showed very little rust last week, making two very good catches and playing on about three quarters of the offensive snaps for the Browns. He was also on the field for about 90% of the team’s pass plays. Los Angeles CB Casey Hayward said that was the toughest matchup he has seen all year. That’s high praise from one of the league’s better corners. The Packers secondary is thin on talent and has nobody capable of containing Gordon. The sky is the limit this week, assuming we don’t see blizzard conditions here.
DeAndre Hopkins – Even with the mighty Tom Savage at the helm, this guy just soaks up targets every week. San Francisco does not have a good defense. Hopkins is one of the safest WR plays on the board, and he is definitely worthy of an early round selection in all DRAFT contests. Don’t overthink this one.
Golden Tate – He has a mouth-watering individual matchup against one of the worst cornerbacks in all of football in Robert McClain. I love Tate as a sneaky selection in all formats this week, and he provides a great way to round out your WR group on DRAFT in the later rounds. You don’t have to go this deep in head-to-head or three-man drafts, but he’s viable in five man or larger formats.
Players I Am Underweight On
Alex Smith – Sure, I didn’t buy into the opinion that he was in danger of getting benched by Patrick Mahomes before the Chiefs fell out of the playoff race. I also like his matchup this week against the Raiders. But, having Smith as the highest projected fantasy point scorer of the entire week is downright ludicrous. Don’t get caught with your autopick on, or you will get stuck with Smith as the #1 overall selection.
Carson Wentz – His solid numbers and name brand recognition will cause people to over-draft him. The Rams have a sneaky good pass defense, and this isn’t the spot for Wentz to get back on track. Wait for a better matchup in the coming weeks before climbing aboard again.
Kenyan Drake – I like him in salary cap formats, but let’s pump the breaks on him being the third best running back on the board. With Miami also likely to fall behind in this game, the risk outweighs the reward with where he will be drafted this week.
Jordan Howard – The workload just isn’t there in games where the Bears fall behind, and Howard’s lack of involvement in the passing game has become a major issue. The Bears own the lowest implied team total of the week, and I will not be drafting anyone from their offense. Howard is off the table for me.
Davante Adams – He was a popular selection last week, which came as a bit of a surprise to me. Even though Brett Hundley likes targeting Adams, the consistency just isn’t there. Hundley despises playing in the cold and has yet to throw a touchdown at Lambeau Field in four starts. A game in cold, snowy Cleveland doesn’t seem much better. I will be staying far away from the Green Bay passing attack in all DRAFT formats.
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