DraftKings Week 3 Salary Analysis and Picks: Daily Fantasy RSI
An Introduction to Fantasy RSI
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a commonly used financial technical indicator that measures the average gain during times when a company’s stock is trading up and compares it with the average loss when a company’s stock is trading down.
While the RSI is not predictive, an RSI above 50 is considered to mean that a stock is overvalued, while an RSI below 50 is considered to mean that a stock is undervalued.
This same indicator could be applied to DFS to help visualize salary momentum, and better yet, to assist in determining undervalued/overvalued players in relation to their salary.
After an injury-riddled Sunday, we now have two full weeks of 2020 NFL player data to help better contextualize Week 3 DraftKings’ salaries. Let’s dive into the RSI numbers to see where we can identify some salary-based values.
DraftKings Most Overvalued Week 3 Players Based on Fantasy RSI
Jordan Reed – $4000
Reed’s fantasy value is entirely dependent on the health of 49ers starting TE George Kittle. In Kittle’s Week 1 start, Reed was targeted just twice on 10 total snaps, compared to eight targets and 28 total snaps in Week 2. Reed’s DraftKings salary has seen a meteoric rise since the start of the year, but he’s simply not playable if Kittle suits up in Week 3.
Kareem Hunt – $6100
The Browns RB has seen a $1000 salary increase since the beginning of the season, and is closing in on his career-high Cleveland salary of $6600 from Week 14 of 2019. Through two weeks, Hunt’s 6.9 yards per rush ties with Packers RB Aaron Jones for the NFL lead. Alas, the problem for Hunt is playing time, with teammate Nick Chubb siphoning 53% of the RB touches and Hunt only earning a 43% snap share through two weeks. With Hunt’s salary entering RB1 territory, he’s a top-tier fade candidate this week.
Tyler Higbee – $5900
Higbee has picked up right where he left off in 2019, averaging 17.7 DraftKings points per game through two weeks. However, the Rams TE is a major regression candidate, as his 37.5% TD rate is simply impossible to maintain for the plurality of the season. Higbee is also t-15th among TEs in targets, but 4th in DraftKings fantasy points. When the production outpaces the usage by this much, its wise to assume it can’t continue.
Jonnu Smith and Corey Davis – $5200
Similar to Jordan Reed, both of these players have seen major salary increases as the result of Titans’ star WR A.J. Brown sitting out of Week 2. If Brown sits out again in Week 3, both players are very much in play, but if Brown is active, Davis and Smith are strong fade candidates. Jonnu Smith, in particular, has greatly outperformed salary-based expectations thanks to his three receiving TDs, which is tied for 1st among TEs. While Smith should continue to be utilized in the red zone, Brown’s return should force him closer to the 12% target share he saw in the final eight weeks of 2019. Be sure to keep a close eye on Brown’s Week 3 status.
DraftKings Most Undervalued Week 3 Players Based on Fantasy RSI
Ezekiel Elliott – $8300
Zeke only saw a $100 salary increase after scoring 23.2 DraftKings points in the Cowboys’ Week 2 miracle win, placing him as the most undervalued player according to Fantasy RSI for the second consecutive week. In Week 3, the Cowboys will face Seattle in a game with the week’s highest over/under, at 56. Just like last week, it’s fair to assume Elliott will eat in this one, as he’s averaged 24.84 DK points in games with a total greater than 48. Lock him in as the slate’s top rusher.
Curtis Samuel – $4000
The Panthers’ WR hasn’t been $4,000 since Week 14 of 2018, making him a top value this week according to Fantasy RSI. Samuel hasn’t really produced in 2020, but his combination of playing time and talent makes him quite intriguing on Panthers team that should play from behind as 7-point underdogs against the Chargers. The 4th-year WR has earned a 72% snap share so far this year, and with RB Christian McCaffrey expected to miss 4-6 weeks due to injury, Samuel should snatch up 2-5 carries per game in his absence. If Samuel can recreate the 6.6 targets he averaged per game in 2019, you won’t find a cheaper 10+ touch player on DraftKings this week.
Julian Edelman – $6200
Edelman earned a $1300 salary reduction coming into Week 1 of 2020, and despite being third in receiving yards through the first two weeks, his price has only gone up $200 so far this year. Clearly Cam Newton’s favorite target, Edelman should continue to outperform his salary given his prominent red zone role and major increase in the depth of his routes. In the previous two seasons, Edelman’s average depth of target (ADoT) was 8.7, which is fairly standard for a slot WR. Through just two weeks in 2020, Edelman’s posted a 13.9 ADoT, significantly increasing his yardage floor and ceiling. Assuming this trend continues, Edelman’s price hasn’t caught up with his updated role on the new-look Pats.
Ryan Tannehill – $5900
Tannehill hasn’t seen a salary change yet this season despite the 23.1 DraftKings points he’s averaged through two weeks. The absence of A.J. Brown didn’t phase Tannehill against Jacksonville, as the veteran QB threw for 4 TDs and finished the game with an elite passer rating of 145.7. Facing the Minnesota Vikings disjointed and uninspiring secondary makes Week 3 the optimal buy-low spot for Tannehill, as he should have no problem ripping up a defense that’s allowed 35.5 PPG this season. Tannehill likely won’t be cheaper than $6K in a matchup this good again any time soon.
Will Fuller – $6000
Fuller seems to have avoided serious injury this past week after being seen getting worked on by trainers during the Texans’ brutal performance against Baltimore. Assuming Fuller is 100% healthy for this week’s matchup against Pittsburgh, the speedster is a solid Week 3 value play. Fuller landed over 50% of the Texans’ air yards in Week 1, and he has the talent to put up big numbers when given that sort of volume. Injury news on Fuller will be as valuable as gold this week, but if he suits up, he’s a stellar DraftKings tournament play.
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