DraftKings Week 4 Salary Analysis and Picks: Daily Fantasy RSI
An Introduction to Fantasy RSI
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a commonly used financial technical indicator that measures the average gain during times when a company’s stock is trading up and compares it with the average loss when a company’s stock is trading down.
While the RSI is not predictive, an RSI above 50 is considered to mean that a stock is overvalued, while an RSI below 50 is considered to mean that a stock is undervalued.
This same indicator could be applied to DFS to help visualize salary momentum, and better yet, to assist in determining undervalued/overvalued players in relation to their salary.
With Week 3 of NFL football in the books, we now have a stronger understanding of how teams are utilizing their personnel, aiding us greatly in providing context to individual players’ salaries. It’s time to run through the Fantasy RSI data to see where we can find an edge in Week 4.
DraftKings Most Overvalued Week 4 Players Based on Fantasy RSI
Myles Gaskin – $5000
Through three weeks, Gaskin has emerged as the clear RB1 in Miami after earning a 62% snap share and 27 total touches on Thursday night. Despite his presence at the top of the Fantasy RSI overvalued list, Gaskin is likely still underpriced given his current role. Gaskin’s 17.6% target share will keep him offensively involved regardless of game script, and his 0.32 avoided tackles per rush attempt proves he has the necessary talent to maintain the 13.1 DraftKings points he has averaged through three weeks.
Tyler Higbee – $5700
The Rams’ TE finds himself back near the top of the Fantasy RSI overvalued list after a disappointing 2 target, 40-yard performance against Buffalo. It’s going to be difficult to roster Higbee as Week 4’s third-most expensive TE, since he simply won’t earn a similar target share to the other top-tier TEs. Tied for 20th in TE targets through three weeks, Higbee is a clear fade until his price dips back under 5k.
Andy Isabella – $4500
The Andy Isabella double-digit fantasy points game finally happened. The Sophomore WR earned a 40% snap share in the absence of Christian Kirk while converting his 4 targets into 47 yards and 2 TDs. If Kirk misses Week 4, we can expect similar usage for Isabella, but even so, expecting a similar fantasy performance may be wishful thinking. Isabella was out-snapped 46-26 and out-targeted 7-4 by KeeSean Johnson, pushing Isabella to the WR4 spot on Arizona without Christian Kirk. Fantasy players should look for a significant uptick in snaps for Isabella before trusting him at this price.
Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf – $7000/$6800
With Russell Wilson absolutely cooking through three weeks, this pair of Seahawks WRs has reaped major benefits. Seattle has drastically altered their offensive philosophy, throwing the ball 10% more often on first down compared to a year before. Assuming Seattle continues to air the ball out with an MVP caliber QB under center, Lockett and Metcalf should continue to be top-10 fantasy WRs. The vast majority of NFL teams can’t reasonably have multiple WRs priced this high, but this Seattle duo is shaping up to be this season’s Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Expect both players to be priced around 7k for the remainder of the season.
DraftKings Most Undervalued Week 4 Players Based on Fantasy RSI
Ryan Tannehill – $6000
The Titans’ QB threw for over 300 yards against a porous Minnesota secondary, but 0 TDs for Tannehill led to a barely noticeable $100 salary increase. Averaging 21 DraftKings points per game thus far makes his $6000 Week 4 salary quite the bargain, but a difficult matchup against Pittsburgh this week is likely what’s causing the salary depression. Even so, the over/under of 47 in this game favors Tannehill, as he averaged an impressive 21.9 DK points over the last two seasons in games with a total greater than 46. At minimal ownership, Tannehill should be on every tournament player’s radar this week.
Julian Edelman – $5700
This is getting absurd. Edelman is t-16th among WRs in targets, is seeing an average depth of target increase of nearly 5 yards compared to the last 2 seasons, and is clearly Cam Newton’s favorite pass catcher. With a Week 4 shootout against Kansas City looming, Edelman’s accurately priced at $7,200. Oh wait, he’s not even close. The New England WR has seen an overall salary decrease of $300 despite averaging 15.4 DK points per game this season. Easily the top WR value of the week, Edelman’s posted 19.7 DraftKings points in his nine career games as an underdog with New England. Expect massive Edelman ownership in all contests this week.
Marvin Jones Jr. – $4900
The Detroit WR hasn’t done much so far this year, even with Kenny Golladay missing the first 2 games of the year. Regardless, Jones has a stellar high-total matchup against the Saints this week, setting him up perfectly as a high-ceiling tournament play. Jones hasn’t been this cheap since Week 2 of 2019, and should see increased target volume with the Lions as 4-point underdogs. Pairing him with fellow Fantasy RSI value Matthew Stafford makes for a strong tournament stack.
John Brown – $5100
Brown put up a goose egg on Sunday after being targeted just twice by red-hot Bills’ QB Josh Allen. The veteran WR missed almost the entire second half of Buffalo’s Week 3 victory with a calf injury, so the poor fantasy performance can be largely discarded. Assuming he is a full go for a juicy Week 4 matchup against the Raiders, Brown makes for a great tournament play at his cheapest price point since Week 5 of 2019. With the majority of tournament players looking to pair Stefon Diggs with Josh Allen, Brown should be under-owned despite the 18.6 DraftKings points he averaged in Weeks 1 and 2.
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