DraftKings Week 7 Salary Analysis and Picks: Daily Fantasy RSI
An Introduction to Fantasy RSI
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a commonly used financial technical indicator that measures the average gain during times when a company’s stock is trading up and compares it with the average loss when a company’s stock is trading down.
While the RSI is not predictive, an RSI above 50 is considered to mean that a stock is overvalued, while an RSI below 50 is considered to mean that a stock is undervalued.
This same indicator could be applied to DFS to help visualize salary momentum, and better yet, to assist in determining undervalued/overvalued players in relation to their salary.
Let’s dive into our DraftKings salary data to see where we can identify some potential values for week 7 of NFL DFS.
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DraftKings Most Overvalued Players Based on Fantasy RSI
Kareem Hunt – $6800
Expectations were sky-high for Hunt in Week 6, but he unfortunately couldn’t come through for fantasy owners, earning 15 total touches and 7.7 DraftKings points in Cleveland’s blowout loss to the Steelers. Primed for a bounceback against the Bengals in Week 7, Hunt should be chalk next Sunday against the NFL’s 6th-worst rushing defense. Even so, there are some reasons to be concerned for Hunt going forward. In the two weeks without Nick Chubb, Hunt ranked 10th in rush attempts, but just 21st in yards after contact per attempt and 22nd in avoided tackles per attempt. While his massive touch volume keeps him in play, Hunt’s sub-par efficiency is certainly an issue, one that could be exacerbated by bad QB play from Baker Mayfield.
Logan Thomas – $3500
Fantasy players have been continuously disappointed in the inefficiency we’ve seen from Logan Thomas, but he’s largely the victim of bad QB play. Through 6 games, only 18/33 of his targets have been deemed ‘catchable’ by PFF, something that’s crippled the TE’s fantasy value thus far. With no end to the disaster at QB in sight, Thomas will unfortunately continue to underperform.
Tony Pollard – $5600
Pollard got more run in Monday night’s loss to Arizona than we’ve seen him get in any other game this season, playing 36% of the snaps and touching the ball a season-high 12 times. Since the Cardinals were up 21 or more points for a large portion of this game, this increase in Pollard’s usage is mostly fools gold as he hadn’t eclipsed 8 touches in any other game. Unless something happens to Zeke, Pollard is only playable in the deepest of season-long leagues, and certainly not any DFS format.
A.J. Brown – $6500
Brown’s looked great since returning from injury, averaging 21.9 DraftKings in Weeks 5+6. With a crucial AFC matchup against Pittsburgh looming in Week 7, the Titans’ set up as 2-point underdogs. While I think Brown is an incredible player, the return of Corey Davis represents a small, but notable, reduction to Brown’s target share in Week 7. Surprisingly, Brown has struggled in his career when the Titans are underdogs, averaging 10.8 DraftKings points compared to 15.7 when they play as favorites. While this may just be the noise of the small sample size, it still gives pause to those looking for another strong game from Brown in Week 7.
DraftKings Most Undervalued Players Based on Fantasy RSI
Breshad Perriman – $3700
Sam Darnold appears on track to return in Week 7, which actually makes Breshad Perriman intriguing despite the Jets’ complete apathy for scoring points. Guaranteed to be heavy underdogs against the Bills, New York will be forced to throw the ball, and Perriman should benefit given the overall lack of talent behind him and his secure role of a 75%+ snap share plus 4-8 targets per game, many of them downfield. While Perriman will surely show up as a solid value play this week, any Jets players need to be treated with extreme caution, as this is a historically bad offense.
JuJu Smith-Schuster – $5500
The 4th-year WR was out-snapped and out-targetted by both James Washington and Chase Claypool despite Diontae Johnson being inactive on Sunday. Regardless, JuJu has only ever been this cheap one other time since the start of the 2018 season, making him pop as a Fantasy RSI value. Smith-Schuster leads PIT in targets, receptions, and end zone targets but has been largely written off by the fantasy community, likely due to his team-low average depth of target (ADoT) of 5.04. While that low of an ADoT does lower his ceiling, he’s still seeing the volume necessary to have dominant fantasy performances. With this week’s matchup against the Titans presenting a 52.5 over/under, JuJu should be in a position to capitalize on the 20.02 DraftKings points he has averaged in games with a total of 51 or higher in his career.
Deebo Samuel – $5000
After a slow return from injury, Deebo is back to being an every-down swiss army knife for the 49ers. On Sunday night, the 2nd-year WR finished 2nd on the team in receptions, yards, and targets behind only TE George Kittle. Facing a talented New England defense in Week 7 presents a new challenge for the 49ers, as the Patriots’ main focus is taking away what their opponent does best, which, in this case, is the running game and George Kittle.
Kyle Shannahan is a fantastic coach, and he should realize going into this game that NE will force him and the 49ers offense to turn to a secondary option. Enter Deebo Samuel. The former college running back lines up all over the field for San Francisco and is averaging 6.3 targets and 1 carry per game this season. If Belichick attacks this offense the way I believe he will, Deebo should be a huge piece of the 49ers gameplan, both on the ground and through the air. Don’t forget, he finished tied with Curtis Samuel for the league-lead in WR carries last year. Likely an unpopular option, those making large-field tournament lineups need to at least consider Deebo, as he should be an X-factor in this game.
Demarcus Robinson – $3800
Only in play if Sammy Watkins is out in Week 7, Robinson played 95% of the snaps (more than any other Chiefs WR) and saw 6 targets for a team leading 69 yards against Buffalo on Monday night. At just $3800, Robinson’s price clearly doesn’t reflect a starting role in the Kansas City offense. Some plays are really as simple as the opportunity being greater than the price, and that’s the case here.
Travis Kelce – $6300
Even with three 20-point+ games this year, Travis Kelce’s price has fallen $1100. The former Cincinnati Bearcat leads NFL TEs in expected fantasy points, averaging 19.4 per game. With the highest target share on the best offense in football, Kelce is in a position to put up huge fantasy performances every week. At just $6300, Kelce has only ever been cheaper than this three times since 2018, making Week 7 a prime buy-low opportunity for the All-Pro.
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