DSFC Preview Part 2: NFL Week 15 Breakdown

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2012-12-16 00:03:55

Well we’ve broken down the 20 finalists squaring off for $100,000 and now it’s time to take a peek at which players might be drawing their interest this weekend. Another full slate of games but this Sunday’s action will certainly come with a bit of a twist. Playing time as the season winds down is always a difficult item to gauge. Regardless, there are plenty of options out there so let’s take an early look at the games and some DraftStreet value plays for Week 15.

The Week 15 NFL Schedule

NOTE: DSFC Schedule only includes Sunday Day Games so those will be the focus of this article

RANKING VS. POSITION IS IN ORDER OF WORST TO BEST. FOR EXAMPLE, THE NEW ORLEANS SAINTS ARE THE WORST IN THE NFL VS. QBS, SO THEIR QB RANK IS 1

This game is projected to be the second highest scoring of the day, so it’s a great starting point for our breakdown. Starting with the Giants offense, you’re looking at a Falcons D that has struggled against the run and the emergence of David Wilson last week might tempt some finalists with his price at $6888. Bradshaw probably did enough last week to scare most people away, even at 10K on DS and looks like he won’t play Sunday. Eli Manning is the other Giants player of intrigue here, as he’s still priced relatively low at just $12K. The last Giant I guarantee we see a ton of is Martellus Bennett at $6.8K. He’s been playing well, has a good matchup and is too cheap to pass up there.

For the Falcons, you have to think their passing game is gonna be used by a good number of finalists. The Giants are 11th worst vs. QBs, 8th worst vs. WRs and 17th worst vs. TEs. Ryan, Roddy and Julio might be out of the price range though, sitting at $15K, $14.2K and $12.6K respectively. I’d say we see a lot of Tony G though at $10K as he seems due for a potential breakout game.

This is one of those games that is gonna certainly keep some finalists up late at night. For the Broncos, you’re looking at an opponent that struggles against the run a bit but has Knowshon Moreno at $10K done enough to earn the trust of someone playing for $100K? Stokley at $4.8K is certainly interesting if he can get onto the field but is a huge risk. I don’t think anyone pays the heavy penny for Peyton at $15K though.

For the Ravens, it’s all about them playing at home. Flacco and company have been 100x better when in their home stadium so that certainly bumps up the bunch. The Broncos D has been stout all season though with their only real weakness coming against opposing TEs. Don’t be shocked if you see a Dennis Pitta play at $7.4K, as he reeled in a TD last week and was targeted 6 times.

A good old rivalry game certainly juices the DSFC action up here. Starting with the Packers, it’s going to be tough to take anyone from Green Bay as they get the top-notch Bears defense and have been sputtering of late. Greg Jennings at 6.8K is really juicy though and might be too cheap to pass up. Other than that, I can’t imagine too many men from the Pack get scooped up as, even when they play well, they’re extremely difficult to predict.

On the other side of the ball, you have Cutler who most likely won’t be out but that will certainly be a big storyline heading into Sunday. If Cutler can’t go, I think some players will roll the Packers D out at $5.7K. If Cutler can go, I will be interested to see if anyone is willing to pay the $15K price tag on Brandon Marshall. I mean the man is averaging almost 17 targets a game over his past 3.

The headline here has to be the status of RG3. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t suit up with the Skins in the middle of the NFC East race though. At $16K it’s a steep price to pay for Griffin but the matchup is decent so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few finalists roll him out there. I’d also expect some Pierre Garcon love against the 6th worst defense versus WRs this year as he’s only $10K and has been on fire.

Flip to the Browns and you get one of the league’s worst defenses and they play at home. I had Brandon Weeden as a fantasy sleeper last week and he played well but couldn’t find the end zone, so is this the week he finds that magic and puts up big numbers? At $11K and against the 3rd worst defense vs. QBs I would be shocked if he didn’t get the call on at least one DSFC roster. I don’ t think we see too much T-Rich at $13K but you never know. Last, Josh Gordon at just under $10K would be the guy to pair Weeden with if you decide to take that risk.

The Colts going on the road to play for their AFC South lives. The Texans looking to bounce back from an embarrassing Monday Night Football loss. Let’s start with Houston here. Here’s some next level stats on Matt Schaub. Schaub has put up single-digit fantasy points 4 times now this season. In the past 3, he’s bounced back with 26.1, 18.3 and 39.1 point fantasy performances. The Colts aren’t world beaters on D so Schaub will definitely get some run at $13.2K. Andre Johnson is still steep at $13K but the matchup is solid and if he can be squeezed in I bet someone takes a shot.

For the Colts, they get a Texans D that is banged up bad. The once feared Houston defense has been run and thrown all over in the past weeks. For that reason, I love TY Hilton and Donnie Avery under $8K on DS. I don’t know if the $14K and $13K for Luck and Wayne respectively can be doled out given how poor their offense has been on the road, but Avery and Hilton dirt cheap are certainly good value picks.

The battle for Florida with two of the worst teams the NFL has to offer. But that doesn’t affect daily fantasy too much so there are still some solid choices here. Starting with the Dolphins, they get a subpar defense who has struggled heavily against running backs. Could Reggie Bush get the call at $10K by some DSFC Finalists? The time share with Thomas is scary but he has gone over 12 fantasy points in 2 of his last 3 games. Other than that, I don’t think you can really trust the Dolphins offense.

On the other side, you have the Jaguars who offer some of the best value in the NFL. It looks like no MJD again this week so Montell Owens could be a great value play and although the Dolphins have been solid against the run, the 16.5 fantasy points Montell hung last week combined with his $6K price tag could be valuable.

Everyone loves a good defensive battle right? Well don’t watch this game then. Starting with Saints options, you can certainly look at Brees, Graham and Colston with great matchups but their recent struggles make it hard to pay $18K, $11K and $12K respectively. The one guy I’m looking at is Lance Moore who hung 16.6 fantasy points up on the Falcons the last time these two met. You might also see a Darren Sproles play, who at $10K this week put up 22.4 fantasy points on the G-men in Week 14.

Flip the script and I’m sure you’ll see every Buccaneers offensive weapon on some roster. Dallas Clark at $6.7K is probably the best value of the bunch. I like Mike Williams at $9.4K and the steep $16K price on Doug Martin will be paid at least a few times I’d bet by DSFC finalists. The last time these two met, Martin put 19.7 fantasy points up. Freeman at $15K is intriguing too seeing as he hung 30.1 fantasy points on the Saints in their last meeting.

Another battle of lost seasons here. Starting with options for STL, you have Brandon Gibson who shined last week and gets a weak Minnesota pass D this week. At $7K he could be a viable option. Steven Jackson is the other player of interest for me on STL. He has put up 13 fantasy points each of the last 3 weeks, making him as consistent as anyone. It’s only a 20 player league so at $10K those 13 points could be extremely valuable as a guarantee.

Taking a look at the Vikings, you have to wonder if anyone will pay the $17.4K price on Adrian Peterson. It’s a great matchup, on turf and he’s averaging almost 30 FPPG over his past two. It’s tempting but I’d pass on putting so many eggs in APs basket. Christian Ponder is filthy cheap and a DEEP potential 2nd QB option at 8K, but he hasn’t hit 10 fantasy points in either of his past 2 games. The Viking I probably like the most is Kyle Rudolph who has been a great red zone option all year but his 2 targets and 0 fantasy points in Week 14 is frightening.

One last quick note, I like the Vikings D at $4.5K here as well to be taken by a couple of teams.

What looks like a pretty boring game on paper could turn out to be very valuable for DFS players. On one hand, you have the Lions potent offense going against what’s actually been a very good Arizona defense all season. They have struggled of late against the rush though and that could bring some Mikel Leshoure plays at just under $11K. I don’t love the Stafford play here but he always has solid upside and Calvin Johnson at $16.5K seems untouchable to me but you never know. The sleeper I love here is Kris Durham at $4.8K. With Titus and Broyles out for the year, Durham stepped in and was targeted 9 times last week.

For the Cardinals, their offense has been so anemic that I can’t imagine anyone using their guys unless they are desperate. The one player I would MAYBE consider is Larry Fitzgerald at $7797 but no one on ARI seems capable of getting him the ball. The Lions defense is the most pricey of all D’s this weekend and for good reason, as Seattle hung 41 fantasy points on the Cardinals last week.

I must say I don’t really know what to expect in this one. We can start with Buffalo’s offense, which has talent but is facing one of the best defenses in the NFL so I can’t imagine turning to Spiller or Jackson in a time-share or rolling with Stevie Johnson against the Seahawks incredible secondary. I do like the Seahawks D again at $5.8K but I would like them a lot better if they were at home.

For the Seahawks offense, you will likely see a lot of Marshawn Lynch who went full beast-mode last weekend and is priced reasonably at $13.7K. The Bills struggle against power running backs (see Brandon Bolden early in the season putting 100 on them). Other than that I don’t hate the upside of a Sidney Rice under $10K or Golden Tate at $8.2K but the Seahawks again have been much better at home than on the road, especially Russell Wilson, so it might be best to pass on the Seahawks passing game even in a good matchup.

Right out of the gate you have to be thinking about Cam Newton, even at $18K. The matchup is solid and Newton has been the best fantasy QB in the NFL over the past 4-5 weeks hands-down. If you go Newton, you don’t necessarily have to handcuff him to a WR because he can score on the ground and through the air. If you do feel the need to handcuff, then maybe take a look at Olsen at $7.4K who is always a threat to find the end-zone.

For the Chargers, you get stuck with a team that is full of daily fantasy nightmares. Will Philip Rivers show up and play like he can? I mean he lit the top-ranked Steelers pass D up last week but he can easily toss 4 picks this weekend. And at $10K can you roll the dice on Ryan Mathews in an incredible matchup? I don’t have the guts but one or two of the finalists might.

Pittsburgh at Dallas in the late afternoon. Starting with the Cowboys, Dez Bryant practiced on Thursday and claims he will give it a go on Sunday which certainly makes things a little more interesting. Since it’s a late game and Dez is priced very reasonably at $9.1K I have no idea which way finalists are gonna sway on this one. If it were me, I’d avoid altogether against a solid Steelers defense. All of the Cowboys have great price tags this week but again, the match-up is tough. Pittsburgh is ranked in the top-3 against every position.

For the Steelers, you have to be thinking Antonio Brown, who reeled in a TD and 4 catches last week and is a steal at $8.3K. I also really like Heath Miller at $8.2K with Big Ben back. Miller gets a ton of red zone targets and on DS, where receptions are only .5, TDs tend to triumph over total catches. Mendenhall is suspended which means Dwyer will get all the action he can handle and at $7.7K he’s a steal as well, even though the Boys have been above average versus the run this season.

The final matchup on the DSFC schedule is another tantalizing one. The Chiefs, whose offense has been about as reliable as my 2001 Mercury Sable, get one of the worst defenses in football in Oakland. For KC, you have to be expecting to see a lot of Jamaal Charles at $14.5K after the week he had last week and given the matchup. But beyond Charles, I don’t think I could pass on Brady Quinn at $7.7K. Oakland has allowed the 4th most FPPG to opposing quarterbacks and in a 2-QB setting like on DS, I’d be hard-pressed to find a better value than Quinn at QB. Last for KC, Jon Baldwin offers some really nice value as well at $5.2K with Bowe out and Moeaki at 4.8K as well.

The Raiders, well, they are a disaster. I wouldn’t go near their running game because it’s less reliable than the Chiefs offense. But I would absolutely consider Carson Palmer at just under $14K. He’s coming off of back-to-back 2 TD games and faces a Chiefs pass defense that is 8th worst vs. opposing QBs. And why not pair him up with Darrius Heyward-Bey at $8K and coming off of a 15.7 fantasy point performance.

If I Were There…..

So let’s start out by taking a look at how our RG Employee FFFC Battle Royale worked out last week.

1) Cal Spears – 198.78
2) Cameron MacMillan – 169.56
3) Brad Owens – 134.36
4) Ethan Haskell – 133.14
5) Riley Bryant – 121.16
6) Dan Back – 103.38

Cal would like everyone to know that had he qualified for the FFFC, he would have won. I would like everyone to know that I plan on avenging my 4th place finish big time this week.

ANYWAYS, we are at it again and the 6 of us have yet to be able to organize a game to run along side yet but follow our coverage on Sunday and I’m sure we’ll have one together by then!

Good luck again to all the Grinders in the DSFC Finals this weekend! See you out there