Primetime Parlay: Eagles vs. Buccaneers Same Game Parlay Picks
In the final contest of NFL Wild Card Weekend, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers welcome the Philadelphia Eagles. The victor will hit the road for Detroit next weekend in the Divisional Round. Baker Mayfield continues to show a level of tenacity that most teams in the NFL could afford to have at the quarterback position. The Eagles, after opening 10-1, appear to have crawled into the postseason. Can Philadelphia turn the tides and build some momentum in the postseason?
FanDuel Sportsbook will be our home for another primetime same game parlay ticket. Let’s cook something up to add some spice to this playoff showdown in Tampa Bay.
Eagles vs. Buccaneers Same Game Parlay Preview
Despite the recent form, the Eagles are 2.5-point road favorites against the home Bucs. Opening at -1.5, the line has moved a point in the favor of the Eagles despite massive injury news regarding A.J. Brown. ScoresAndOdds reports just north of 50% of both spread bets and handle were wagered on the Tampa Bay side of the spread.
The over-under for the game sits at 42.5 points as of early Monday morning. Opening at 44.5 points, the overwhelming majority of all action on the under, per SAO, would explain the shift down. Given the struggles of the Eagles offense and the not-so-explosive nature of Tampa Bay, we should not be shocked that betting sites are not anticipating a shootout on Monday night.
The Tampa Bay side comes in relatively healthy outside of nagging injuries that are hobbling quarterback Baker Mayfield. Mayfield played the crucial Week 18 contest against the Panthers with injured ribs and then added an ankle injury. There is no doubt Mayfield will be on the field in this game until he needs to be scraped off. As mentioned before, Mayfield continues to show a level of tenacity that most NFL organizations would wish for.
Concerning explosive playmaking ability though, Jalen Hurts must be the reason why the Eagles are still favored. Philadelphia will not have Brown on Monday night and will lean heavily on DeVonta Smith as the WR1. Reed Blankenship is questionable at safety with a groin injury. The loss of Brown is sure to take pressure off of a Tampa Bay defense that loves to focus on stuffing the run.
Tampa Bay Offense
20th — 20.5 PPG
20th — 5.1 YPP
14th — 7.1 Passing YPA
32nd — 3.4 Rushing YPA
Philadelphia Offense
7th — 25.5 PPG
13th — 5.4 YPP
12th — 7.2 Passing YPA
11th — 4.3 Rushing YPA
After reviewing some key offensive statistics for both teams, the feelings of consternation concerning the Eagles being road favorites evaporate. While the Eagles disappointed fans to close the season, the offenses are not comparable. The Eagles have far more explosive plays in their arsenal. Without Brown, we won’t get the full array, but the Eagles are still an offense that is more dynamic than the home team.
That said, Tampa Bay plays a far cleaner version of football. For a team that is far less explosive, they only average 1 giveaway per game this season. The Eagles were way down the chart at 1.6, and they turned the ball over more than 2 times per game over the last 3 weeks. With Tampa Bay able to focus more energy on Smith and the rushing attack, perhaps the path to victory is to take advantage of turnovers and field position.
Oh, whoops, we forgot to talk about defense. The consternation returns. The Buccaneers allowed 19.1 points per game this season on defense. Helped by a weak division, Tampa Bay was stout over the last 3 weeks, as they only allowed 11 points per game to opposing offenses. Philadelphia, on the other hand, resembled a turnstile on defense throughout the season, ranking 30th in PPG. Over the last 3 weeks, the Eagles allowed 29 PPG.
Both defenses rank in the bottom half of the league concerning opposing yards per pass attempt. Without question, the path to yardage in this contest will be through the air. Can Mayfield keep pace with Hurts? Will the loss of Brown be too much to overcome for the Eagles? With those questions in mind, let’s cook up an SGP for tonight’s game.
Same Game Parlay Picks for Eagles at Buccaneers
- Tampa Bay +2.5
- Mayfield Over 231.5 Passing Yards
- Evans Over 68.5 Receiving Yards
- Goedert Over 52.5 Receiving Yards
Tampa Bay +2.5
I am buying into the Kool-Aid. The Eagles have been dreadful over the last third of the season, and I cannot ignore what I’ve witnessed over that time. I want the home team tonight.
Admittedly, since I will be making a parlay ticket, I might want to bump this to 3 or even 3.5 points. Just in case we finally get the pieces of the puzzle to fit, I wouldn’t want to push a leg on a walk-off field goal by the Eagles. While the Packers’ victory on Sunday night taught us to expect the unexpected, I think the Buccaneers keep this game close in either defeat or victory.
Without Brown, the Eagles could struggle even more to get a rhythm on offense. We will get back to Brown’s workload in a bit, but in the meantime, give me Mayfield and the Bucs.
Baker Mayfield Over 231.5 Passing Yards
Speaking of Mayfield, he gets a great matchup at home against a defense that continues to get shredded. With opposing offenses averaging over 250 passing yards per game against them this season, the Eagles are ripe for Mayfield to attack. Remember, the Buccaneers rank dead last in running the football. This is the playoffs. Tampa Bay isn’t going to waste time with something that isn’t working.
I think all of Mayfield’s passing props are interesting tonight, including completions, attempts, and of course, yardage. We will keep within the FanDuel framework and stick with the over in yardage.
Mike Evans Over 68.5 Receiving Yards
We want to pair Mayfield with someone from his receiving corps. Look no further than the best receiver on the team, Mike Evans. Not a possession receiver, Evans possesses the big-play ability that has led to some huge games for the veteran in 2023.
The Eagles held Evans in check in their meeting earlier in the season. Evans was targeted 10 times and only caught 5 for 60 yards. That version of the Eagles doesn’t seem to exist anymore, and this is the playoffs at home. Mayfield is going to want to get his star involved early and often. Evans is certainly not going to convert a high volume of targets, as he is usually targeted downfield. We need one of those to set us up for the night.
This game likely means a lot to Evans, as it seems he will be taking his talents elsewhere next season. Spending his entire career in Tampa Bay, his final home playoff game seems like a great narrative to get attached to.
Dallas Goedert Over 52.5 Receiving Yards
Finally, Brown ranked 6th in the NFL with a target share just below 29%. That is a high volume of opportunities that need to be allocated to other Philadelphia playmakers on Monday night.
Common sense would suggest Smith and Goedert will see the biggest helping. Julio Jones could maybe see a few extra targets as well. However, since returning from injury, Goedert has already seen a healthy volume of opportunities from his quarterback.
Goedert is not a yards-after-the-catch guy, but if he can get close to double-digit targets, he should be able to eclipse his receiving prop simply falling after every catch. With a high conversion rate, Goedert just needs the opportunities. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this prop hit before halftime.
Eagles vs. Buccaneers Parlay Odds
- Tampa Bay +2.5
- Baker Mayfield Over 231.5 Passing Yards
- Mike Evans Over 68.5 Receiving Yards
- Dallas Goedert Over 52.5 Receiving Yards
FanDuel Sportsbook offers the following odds:
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Parlay Odds: +704
Risk: 1/2 unit to win 3.52 units
Good luck with all of your wagers for this game. Share your parlays with me on X.
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