NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: Falcons-Jaguars DraftKings Picks
NFL Showdown season continues with the Falcons vs. Jaguars in London for some Sunday Morning Football. Our expert analysts are breaking down Draftkings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
The 2-1 Falcons face off against the 1-2 Jaguars from Wembley Stadium in London, England, with a nice and early 9:30 AM ET kickoff. Zay Jones will remain out after missing last week with a knee injury. Jamal Agnew is questionable with a quad injury, but there’s optimism he’ll play. The Jaguars are coming off a bad loss at home to the Texans and will be highly motivated to get back to .500, while the Falcons are also coming off a loss (to the Lions) and hopeful not to fall to .500.
Calvin Ridley gets his first crack at his former Falcons team and is a clear top target here, while Bijan Robinson will look to put on a show on an international stage after starting strong on American soil. Kyle Pitts is looking to score his first TD of the year and already has a British-themed celebration planned after he sipped some tea last time he scored here, and Drake London won’t want to disappoint in the city of his surname. All right, enough of the narrative talk- let’s get to the picks and strategy!
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Falcons vs. Jaguars Week 4
Currently, this game is sitting at a 43.5 total, with the Jaguars favored by 3 points. If you go position by position, I definitely give the edge to the Jags at QB and WR, and right now I’d probably give the edge at RB and TE as well, although Bijan and Pitts have as much upside as anyone in the league at their respective positions if the Falcons would ever unleash them. This should be a fun, competitive game with big plays on both teams waiting to happen at every position.
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence has been consistently mediocre through three games, averaging around 15 FPPG. He’s yet to throw for over 280 yards or rush for over 26 yards in a game, and he has at least one turnover in each game. The Falcons defense has actually been pretty good so far, allowing just 54 total points on the year, including the 4th-lowest passing yards per game (170), so I would temper expectations on Lawrence here. I still prefer him over Ridder for a cash game QB, but I like using a variety of skill players from both teams in the captain spots compared to the QBs.
Desmond Ridder has had two clunkers and one solid game so far, but he has a good chance for an above average game here against a Jaguars defense allowing just over 264 pass yards per ame. The Falcons are still a run-first offense, and I’d expect them to try to keep Lawrence and the Jags off the field as much as possible with long methodical drives, but if you’re doing MME (mass multi-entry) I’d definitely have plenty of Ridder and stacks with Bijan, London, and Pitts. As the fifth most expensive player from this game, I’m not considering Ridder a must play in cash games.
Running Back
This is the part of the game I’m most excited to watch, as we have Bijan Robinson and Travis Etienne in a battle of highly explosive pass-catching RBs who probably have the most upside of any skill player on either team. They are the two most expensive plays from this game, so using both in cash games is going to be tough, but both should be heavily captained if you’re doing MME. If I had to choose just one for my main build, I would go with Etienne, as he has a safer floor for touches and should get more work if the likely game script has the Jaguars leading late. I can’t blame anyone who goes with Bijan over Etienne in their main build though, as the Falcons falling behind could actually favor Robinson’s upside, as he’d see more targets, and he’s most dangerous when he gets the ball in open spaces. Bigbsy and Allgeier are just GPP plays for me, as they’re both extremely TD dependent for any value.
Wide Receiver
I want all the Calvin Ridley here, as he’s averaging 8.7 targets per game, will be highly motivated to put up a big line against his former team, and will be heavily relied on again with Zay Jones out. He’s coming off two terrible games, so recency bias may see his ownership slightly reduced, but I think he bounces back in a huge way here. For under $10,000, he’s a must-play cash game flex option if you don’t use him in the captain spot. Christian Kirk is also a great play for just $8,000, as he should see 7-12 targets easily and has big play ability like Ridley. I still prefer Ridley if I only use one Jags WR in cash games, but I would definitely do some Ridley / Kirk stacks in GPPs on lineups that don’t include Etienne for max leverage. If Jamal Agnew plays, he’s a dart-throw GPP play on a couple teams.
Drake London is the eighth-most expensive player from this game, and at $6,800 makes for a great cash game salary saver. The Jaguars defense has been much worse through the air than on the ground so far, and I’d expect Ridder to take at least a couple deep shots to London here, so he could smash his salary if he can connect on one long TD. Mack Hollins is cheap at $4,800 and has seen as many targets as London (14) this year, but he’s still just a GPP target for me, as I think he has a wider range of outcomes and risk for your main build over London. Hodge and Miller are off my radar, with just one total target between them so far.
Tight End
I know I keep saying I like the Jags in cash games, but Evan Engram ($7,200) is also a strong salary saver for a flex spot in your main build. Choosing between him and Kirk (if not taking both) is going to come down to whom you go with in your captain spot and how much salary you have left, but it’s going to be hard to not find a spot for Engram and his likely 7-10 targets. The Falcons have also given up solid lines to opposing TEs in two of their three games, with LaPorta coming off a huge 8-84-1 game, so the matchup is strong for Engram too.
Kyle Pitts has been about as frustrating as any player in DFS since coming in to the league, as we know he has insane upside if used correctly, but he landed on a Falcons team that just isn’t big on throwing much or utilizing him in ways to make him feel safe in any form of DFS. He is coming off a 9-target game last week, and the Jags are better to attack through the air, so at just $5,200 I think Pitts makes a ton of sense of a salary saver in cash games and a sneaky captain play on a few GPP teams.
Defense / Special Teams
Both kickers are definitely in play for around $4,000 each, as they should both see at least 2-3 attempts, as both offenses are capable of moving the ball but aren’t always the best at finishing drives. I’m not too high on either DSTs, but the Falcons are pretty cheap at $3,800 if you have to fill a final flex spot.
Sunday Morning Football NFL DFS Strategy
I’m going much heavier on the Jaguars here, and most builds will likely be 5-1 or 4-2 in their favor. I think a lot of optimal lineups will have at least one kicker and / or at least one of the TEs, while getting the right RB and WR in your main build will be crucial. I’m not super high on the QBs outside of GPP stacks, and I like using a lot of Ridley, Etienne, and Bijan in the captain spots.
DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings
1. Calvin Ridley – I’m expecting a big game from Ridley against his former team. He’s too cheap not to have him in at least a flex spot.
2. Travis Etienne – My preference from the top 3 expensive plays. Big usage rate and can score any time he touches the ball.
3. Drake London – Just too cheap at $6,800 and the best way to get ATL exposure in cash games.
4. Christian Kirk / Evan Engram – At similar prices, I would use at least one in your main build, and I like stacking both on GPP lineups that don’t include Ridley.
5. Kyle Pitts – Should easily pay off his $5,200 price if he gets 7+ targets and would smash that salary if he can find the end zone.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer for Sunday Morning Football
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