Thursday Night Football Betting Picks: Falcons at Panthers
The Atlanta Falcons found a new way to lose in Week 7 with a last-minute collapse to the Detroit Lions. The Panthers might return Christian McCaffrey for Thursday night as they look to rebound after a Week 7 loss to the New Orleans Saints. The Panthers will welcome the Falcons as short favorites — can the Falcons find a way to put away a football game? Here are a sports betting preview and Thursday Night Football betting picks for the Atlanta Falcons at the Carolina Panthers.
Update: Christian McCaffrey is not likely to return tonight, according to NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero.
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Falcons at Panthers NFL Betting Odds
70% of bets backing Carolina and 62% on the over, per ScoresandOdds.com.
Falcons at Panthers TNF Betting Preview
The big piece of news that fans and bettors await is an update on Christian McCaffrey. While back at practice, the status of the star running back remains uncertain heading into Wednesday night. While the Panthers will certainly be more dynamic upon his return, Mike Davis figures to remain in the mix for touches after filling in successfully since McCaffrey was injured in Week 2. Russell Okung remains questionable with a calf injury.
On the Atlanta side, Julio Jones was removed from the injury report and will suit up on Thursday night. Jones is coming off of two remarkably productive weeks with 8 receptions in each totaling 234 yards and two touchdowns across both weeks. Jones joins a talented Atlanta offense that leaves fans scratching their heads as to how the Falcons found this low point — finding news ways to snatch losses from the jaws of victory late in games.
Speaking of blowing victories late, Todd Gurley will likely be an emphasis against the Panthers on Thursday night. Gurley took a pile of the blame for not effectively falling down short of the goal line against the Lions. While DFS rejoiced in Gurley falling into the endzone, the Lions mozied directly down the field with the remaining time to score a last-second go-ahead touchdown to serves the Falcons another loss. Gurley wrecked the Panthers in their first matchup — amassing 121 yards on a measly 14 carries. Expect Gurley to be featured as the balance to a strong passing attack for Atlanta. Gurley is the key for the Falcons keeping the efficient Panther offense off of the football field.
The Panthers were able to dismantle the Falcons in Week 5 in Atlanta — without Christian McCaffrey. While I am not sure how to quantify CMC’s impact on a betting line, my guess is that the Panthers continue to move the ball through the air while the two capable backs split the workload. Mike Davis will likely still see his fair share of snaps — especially as McCaffrey gets back in a groove. I would not be shocked to see McCaffrey regain his role as the premier red-zone option for Carolina — but do not be surprised if the offense doesn’t force-feed him the ball all game long like the gameplan utilized in 2019. The Falcons’ defense allows 29.6 points per game — certainly, a big wart to overcome against a team ranked in the NFL’s top-ten offense in yards per play (6.1).
Thursday Night Football Betting Picks
While divisional games typically offer plenty of parody, I am not seeing it here. Despite a 3-4 record, the Panthers are clearly building something with new coach Matt Rhule. The Falcons’ culture seems to invite losing but I would be shocked to see the Falcons hold a big lead at any point in this contest. Look for the Panthers to move the ball at will against the Falcons and control the clock with one or both of their talented running backs.
The Falcons’ defense serves up far too many points and will have trouble with a multi-dimensional offensive attack. The addition of Robby Anderson on the outside keeps defenses in check as the Panthers and Teddy Bridgewater have already shown what will happen if teams attempt to stack the box. I don’t think Atlanta and their inexperienced secondary will be able to bottle up the multi-faceted offense. I will lay the two points over on FanDuel.
TNF Betting Pick: Carolina Panthers -2 (FanDuel)
Falcons and Panthers Player Props
Todd Gurley Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-110) (use our FanDuel promo code to get these odds)
While Todd Gurley made a mess of the final Atlanta drive in Week 7 by accidentally scoring a touchdown, he draws one of the strongest matchups for a running back in the NFL. Gurley smashed against the Panthers in Week 5 — toting the rock 14 times for a massive 121 yards. While I doubt he replicates this type of rushing total, running backs — not named David Montgomery — have devastated the Panthers all season. Allowing 4.9 yards per rushing attempt to backs, the Panthers should allow Gurley to cruise to this rushing total.
Teddy Bridgewater Under 284.5 Passing Yards (-110) (FanDuel)
Teddy Bridgewater threw for north of 300 yards against the Falcons in Week 5 on the road in Atlanta. That said, in a game that might return the Panthers’ superstar running back and playing as a home favorite — I wonder if Teddy will garner enough pass attempts to breach this passing total. Given that Mike Davis is said to factor in the running game even after McCaffrey returns, the Panthers could be running the ball often against a team that gives up yardage to every position on the field. Look for a balanced attack with plenty of rushing attempts to complement a strong passing attack against the Falcons. I will take the under on Teddy’s passing total.
First Touchdown Picks
Here are my first touchdown picks for Thursday Night Football at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Todd Gurley +650
Robby Anderson +1050
Calvin Ridley +1100
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