FanDuel NBA 3-Man Challenge Strategy: Friday, November 15th
Hello Grinders. We have a really interesting FanDuel 3-Man daily fantasy basketball slate, as there’s a lone $5 option up top in James Harden. We also get four games to work with, which expands our player pool a bit. Let’s dive in and see what we’re working with.
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The 5-1-1 Build
Let me just say I love James Harden today. Clint Capela is out with a concussion, Eric Gordon remains out and Danuel House is doubtful. This will force Harden to carry even more of the offensive burden. It’s not a great matchup against the Pacers, who can throw Malcolm Brogdon on him, but Harden probably has the highest ceiling of anyone on this slate. The problem is we’re going to need that ceiling game, as paying $5 for Harden means you have to spend $1 on two players. And let me just say, I hate the $1 bargain bin today. Normally there’d be one or two players I’d have some interest in, but it’s ugly today. Here are two that I’d most recommend, but I don’t feel great about it:
Markelle Fultz – This is not someone I want to go out and play, but he’s $1 and has a starting role. I can see a route for around 20+ minutes, which is valuable. Fultz has reached at least 19 FD points in six straight games so there’s a decent floor here. I don’t love the matchup against Dejounte Murray and the Spurs, so you’re really going to need Harden to go off to justify using Fultz.
Rudy Gay – Gay is my favorite $1 play on this slate. Like Fultz, he’s not going to see big minutes and will come off the bench, but we’ve seen him reach 27.1 and 32.6 FD points now in back-to-back games, so he can do damage in a hurry. Because Gay doesn’t get heavy run you likely won’t see a ceiling game from him, but he carries a high enough floor where he’s probably the best $1 option we have on this DFS slate.
The 4-2-1 Build
If you decide to pivot off Harden and target the $4 range, here are a few that catch my eye:
Andre Drummond – Drummond against the Hornets at $4 would normally be a smash play, but there is some hesitation on my part. For starters, Blake Griffin is back, and he’s going to soak up some usage. In Griffin’s first game back, he played 24 minutes, took 12 shots and finished with a 19/7/6 line. Drummond ended up playing just 29 minutes and finished with a respectable 11/12/1 line with 4 steals and 3 blocks. The matchup is an elite one, as the Hornets are allowing the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing centers this season. Drummond still has a massive ceiling here, but he’s going to take a hit with Griffin alongside him. Just know that risk if you play Drummond.
Joel Embiid – I don’t love the matchup against Steven Adams, and I don’t love that Embiid has to deal with Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, Josh Richardson and Al Horford, but this is still Joel Embiid we’re talking about. It would not shock anyone if he dropped a 50-60 FD point performance here. I think I slightly lean Drummond over Embiid at the $4 range simply because of the better matchup for Drummond, but it feels close.
Domantas Sabonis – Sabonis will probably much lower owned than Drummond and Embiid, but he has a lot working in his favor. For one, he’s facing a fast-paced Rockets team that’s without Clint Capela. Instead, Sabonis will be doing battle with 37-year old Tyson Chandler and P.J. Tucker, who is six inches shorter than Sabonis. The Rockets are 2nd in the league in pace so there should be a lot of back-and-forth here. Also helping Sabonis’ case is the fact the team will be without Myles Turner and Jeremy Lamb. Goga Bitazde is back to provide some girth, but this is going to be Sabonis’ show. I love Sabonis as a contrarian pivot off Drummond and Embiid.
Here are a few $2 options I like:
T.J. Warren – Everything I just laid out for Sabonis’ case can be applied for Warren. He benefits from Turner and Lamb out, and will get a pace-up spot. Per CourtIQ, Warren sees a 1.9% usage bump with both Turner and Lamb off the court, and he averages 0.95 fantasy points per minute. There’s a path for 30+ minutes here with the team injured, and if things go his way and he can rack up a few blocks/steals, there’s a decent floor and ceiling here.
P.J. Tucker – Tucker isn’t a good fantasy producer, but he has one thing working in his favor today: massive minutes. With Clint Capela out, there’s no way the Rockets can afford to roll out 37-year old Tyson Chandler for big minutes. I’d expect the Rockets to go small at times and play Tucker at the 5. In his last four games, Tucker has seen minutes totals of 37, 32, 33 and 38. There’s a route here for 35+ minutes again, and while not all minutes are created equal, I don’t think taking a chance on Tucker is an awful idea.
Devonte Graham – The Hornets moved Graham into the starting lineup last game for Dwayne Bacon, and it’s expected that Graham will remain a starter moving forward. We’ve seen Graham thrive in the second unit this season, posting totals of 55.8, 37.3, 47 and 35 FD points within the past week. He may take a usage hit as a starter now that he’s no longer the offensive focal point and has to share the ball with Terry Rozier, P.J. Washington, Cody Zeller and Miles Bridges, but his minutes become a bit more secure now. I don’t know how many people have caught on to Graham yet in his breakout season, and I have no problem rolling the dice on him as a $2 option.
The 3-3-1 or 3-2-2 Build
I’ve already touched on some of my favorite $1 and $2 players, but here are a few of the $3 options that I like:
Malcolm Brogdon – I’ve made cases for T.J. Warren and Domantas Sabonis already, so here’s my case for Brogdon. Per CourtIQ, when Turner and Lamb have been off the court this season, Brogdon has owned a 26.5% usage rate and has averaged 1.09 FD points per minute. Brogdon was crushing last game with 31.7 FD points in just 25 minutes, but the game blew out like a baby’s diaper and he didn’t get his normal second half rotations. He’s taken a hit with Sabonis back, but Brogdon should see big minutes as the primary defender on one of Harden or Westbrook. Both Harden and Westbrook are also among the top five in turnovers, so there’s plenty of chances to rack up some steals.
Jonathan Isaac – It’s easy to overlook Isaac on this slate given his matchup against the Spurs, but Isaac is one of those guys who carries massive potential in FanDuel scoring. With steals and blocks weighted so heavily, Isaac’s ceiling is unique in that he’s not a big scorer but has reached some big FD point games because of his defensive chops. Just last week, Isaac dropped FD scores of 58.5 and 45.6. In those games, he had a combined 10 blocks/steals in one and 5 blocks.steals in the other. The Spurs aren’t a turnover-prone team, but Isaac’s skill set is so unique that he’s worth consideration.
Thanks for reading, and good luck tonight. May variance be on your side.