FanDuel NBA DFS Playoffs: Day 1 Darlings
After the last two weeks of the NBA’s Irregular Season – a time when names like Alex Caruso, Walt Lemon and Jemerrio Jones are making waves – it feels fantastic to have meaningful basketball back in our lives.
One of my favorite things to take advantage of at the beginning of the playoffs is rostering guys who had their regular season minutes monitored closely. Teams have no reason to keep anyone on a leash at this point and they are going to get as much out of their regulars as possible.
Playoff basketball is also more matchups-motivated, so being able to identify and exploit those situations is key to GPP success on Day 1. In this space, I’ll break down one player per position that should see a value spike early in the postseason.
Point Guard – Kyle Lowry ($7,800 on FanDuel) – The Raptors were one of the most cautious teams this season in terms of making sure their stars were rested. Lowry played at least 33 minutes in each of the last three games he suited up for in the regular season, but from March 11th through April 1st, he didn’t log a single game over 30 minutes. He’s a little too cheap here in a plus draw with an Orlando team that ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency against PGs. You can make a GPP case for Jamal Murray at the same price tag, but Lowry has the slightly higher floor/ceiling combination.
Shooting Guard – Klay Thompson ($5,800) – Klay is probably feeling fortunate that the Dubs let him suit up for the season finale. He shot the ball terribly in early April and hasn’t surpassed 20 real points in any of his last five games but was able to shoot an efficient 8-12 from the field (3-5 3PT) in 17 minutes to get himself back in track in the finale against Memphis. His shooting woes in early April likely contributed to his price falling below $6K for the playoff opener. He’s the top upside target at SG below $6K and is cash game playable at this price.
Small Forward – Danilo Gallinari ($7,500) – This one is GPP-only, but there is a lot of upside for Gallinari at this price. He immediately became the focal point offensively with the first unit once Tobias Harris was dealt to Philly, and Gallo responded with elite per-minute rates while having his playing time monitored down the stretch. The Clippers weren’t all that worried about trying to move up in seeding, they just wanted to get to the postseason healthy. Given that the Clippers open on the road in Golden State, there is some blowout risk here but if Gallo can corral upwards of 32-34 minutes, he has a great shot to exceed value at $7,500.
Power Forward – Paul Millsap ($5,800) – The Nuggets have a deep enough rotation that they don’t necessarily need to lean heavily on Millsap on a consistent basis, but in this postseason matchup he should see a full allotment of minutes. The Spurs will likely start big to try to help combat Nikola Jokic, so I’d imagine Millsap should be on LaMarcus Aldridge’s hip. Millsap did struggle against the Spurs during the regular season, but only averaged 25.4 minutes per game over those three contests and shot a paltry 25%, a figure that will surely improve. He also has a very real ability to contribute in every stat category and can rack up defensive stats with the best of them, so there is a massive ceiling on Millsap’s $5,800 tag. He is my favorite GPP upside target on the slate.
Center – Marc Gasol ($6,000) – Nikola Vucevic made it clear earlier in the year that he prefers to work against smaller centers, and he showed it a few times by dominating the Raptors (and Serge Ibaka) in regular season meetings this year. Vuc will be the obvious focal point for the Raptors defensively, and the presence of Marc Gasol is a big upgrade on Ibaka in this matchup. It’s been somewhat of a back and forth between Gasol and Ibaka for the starting center spot – it’s been mostly matchups dependent – so Game 1 is a great time to hop aboard the Gasol train and hope for 28-30+ (with upside for more) minutes if this one stays close late. Gasol is a fine per-minute producer in his own right, so the $6K tag is salivating.