FanDuel NBA Single-Game Strategy: Lakers/Nuggets DFS Preview
Hello Grinders. FanDuel has a solid single-game offering for tonight’s Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets game. Let’s dive in and see what we can make of this game.
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The Spread
The Lakers enter as slight one-point road favorites against the Nuggets. As of late Tuesday night the over/under hasn’t been posted on the NBA odds board yet, which is a bit surprising considering we have most of the injury news we’re waiting on. This makes me wonder if there’s something more here as the final game before the All-Star break. There was an interesting tweet here by Lakers beat writer Mike Trudell mentioning that despite playing with a nine-man rotation last game, the plan is for the Lakers to use a 10-man rotation on a nightly basis. Alex Caruso got squeezed out of the rotation last game because Rajon Rondo got hot, but this makes me less trusting of Caruso’s role as the 10th man off the bench.
The Injuries
The Lakers enter this game healthy, with Anthony Davis probable with his finger sprain. On the Nuggets side, they are dealing with a bunch of injuries. Will Barton and Michael Porter have already been ruled out, which will likely leave Torrey Craig drawing another start. Jamal Murray did suffer an ankle injury last game but played through it for 34 minutes and is expected to play in this game, but monitor the news just in case things change. It’s also worth noting that Paul Millsap was on a minutes restriction last game and played just 19 minutes, so it’s likely his workload gets limited once again heading into the All-Star Break. Despite just playing 19 minutes, he still finished with 43.9 FD points and a 22/7/3/2/1 full line on his birthday. Birthday narrative!
The Options
Nikola Jokic – This is a brutal matchup for Jokic against the Lakers, who rank among the best at guarding opposing centers. From a matchup standpoint there isn’t much to like here, but the CourtIQ data shows that with Barton/Plumlee/Porter off the court this season, Jokic owns a 28.8% usage rate and averages 1.49 fantasy points per minute. If this game stays close like Vegas expects it to, it’s likely going to be one of Murray or Jokic leading the charge. With Murray dealing with his ankle injury, albeit being probable, I’m going to side with Jokic here if prioritizing a spend-up option from the Nuggets.
Anthony Davis – I’m finding it tough to actually roster both AD, LeBron James AND Nikola Jokic, even though I’d want to in order to capture all the upside on the Lakers with the upside of Jokic. If I had to choose just one stud Laker, I slightly lean Davis. Davis has the harder matchup on paper but I think Davis carries higher upside at this point. In his last six games, he’s reached 70 FD points twice, while James has only reached 50 FD points twice in that stretch. If choosing just one of them, I’m going to chase Davis’ ceiling. The “GTD” tag and “2nd oppk” tag may also help depress his ownership a tad, even though all signs point to him playing.
Torrey Craig – We’re going to need salary relief from somewhere, and I think it either comes from Craig or someone like a min priced Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. I slightly lean Craig if punting because of the injuries to Barton and Porter Jr. opening up minutes for Craig. The problem with Craig is that even with minutes, he’s not a big per-minute fantasy producer, so there’s a low floor here. He’s played 36, 31 and 31 minutes over his last three games, and has scored 24+ FD points in two of those three games. His defense should be needed on LeBron and I’d rather chase the minutes of Craig than the minutes of KCP, whose minutes have hovered in the mid-twenties lately. KCP also carries a dangerously low floor and is shooting-dependent, so he’s not going to contribute much if he’s not knocking down the three-ball.
Jamal Murray – I was tempted to write up Paul Millsap who has been on an absolute tear lately, but it’s tough for me to endorse someone who has played fewer than 20 minutes per game lately. I don’t see a reason for the Nuggets to push him here and while I’d want to chase his last two games, I’d rather pay up and get exposure to Murray. Like Jokic, the CourtIQ data shows Murray benefits from all the injuries as he owns a team-high 28.8% usage rate and averages 1.09 fantasy points per minute. Millsap actually averages a crazy 1.3 fantasy points per minute so he’s much more efficient, but I’d project for Murray to see significantly more minutes tonight to offset those rates.
Thanks for reading, and good luck tonight. May variance be on your side.