FanDuel NBA Single-Game Strategy: Warriors/Bucks DFS Preview
Hello Grinders. FanDuel has a solid single-game offering for tonight’s Milwaukee Bucks / Golden State Warriors game. Let’s dive in and see what we can make of this game.
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The Spread
I’m writing this late Tuesday night so the over/under hasn’t been reported yet, but Vegas has this game opening with the Bucks as heavy 13.5-point road favorites on the NBA odds board. The Bucks rank 1st in defensive rating while the Warriors are all the way down at 21st. Obviously anything can happen here, but there are some blowout concerns here if Vegas is correct.
The Injuries
The reason the Warriors are heavy home dogs is because they will be without D’Angelo Russell (shoulder), Kevon Looney (abdomen) and Marquese Chriss (waived). The good news is they are expected to have Draymond Green back. The return of Green should push one of Damion Lee or Eric Paschall back to the bench (my guess is it’s Paschall). Also with Chriss being waived, the Warriors guaranteed Lee a spot on the team and are working on a multi-year deal with him. This also means Ky Bowman will likely remain on his two-way contract as there haven’t been reports of him getting a guaranteed deal.
On the Bucks side, George Hill is out (illness), which will leave their second unit a bit thinner. Donte DiVincenzo should see a bit more run with Hill out.
The Options
Giannis Antetokounmpo – Let’s start with the obvious question: is Giannis worth $17K in a game that may be over by the 3rd quarter? Giannis continues to play through a back injury and the most worrisome aspect is that his minutes have been trending down a bit. In his last four games, his minutes have been 27 > 31 > 28 > 33. He’s averaging just 31 minutes per game this season, down from 32.8 from last season and 36.7 the season before. Granted two of those last four games have been blowouts, but it seems like the Bucks are willing to be more cautious than normal with his workload. He still has 60 FD point upside here even if this game gets out of hand, and if it somehow stays close, I love his upside. I’m willing to build around Giannis as my MVP and just take the floor. I’m also willing to play Giannis because even though it leaves you with just $10,750 per player after that, we don’t have to worry about playing another high priced player like D’Angelo Russell at $15,500 because he’s out.
Donte DiVincenzo – One way to get some salary relief is to play DiVincenzo, who should get more run with George Hill out. We saw DiVencenzo start not too long ago when Eric Bledsoe was out, so the team clearly trusts him. He’s continually been getting minutes in the 22-26 range, and he’s scored 20+ FD points in 9 out of his last 11 games. With George out and the potential for some garbage time run if this game gets out of hand, I like the potential upside of DiVincenzo at this reasonable price tag.
Glenn Robinson – We’re going to need some exposure to the Golden State side, and I have trouble prioritizing any of the spend ups like Alec Burks ($13,000) or Draymond Green ($12,000) in a potential blowout. Burks is interesting if you think the Warriors can actually keep this game close, because he’s shown 40+ FD point upside lately but we’ve also seen him just sleepwalk through games, so he’s very boom/bust. As for Draymond, he’s also someone I would consider if you think the Warriors keep it close but his minutes have been under 30 in three of his last four games and I don’t expect him to be pushed if this game gets out of hand. Which is why this brings me to Glenn Robinson. Robinson’s minutes seem secure, as he’s now averaging 32 minutes per game as a starter. He’s not a good per-minute producer, but given the depth the Warriors have in terms of big men (Draymond, Spellman, Cauley-Stein, Paschall, Smailagic), I don’t mind targeting a wing instead like Robinson and hoping he can produce in his minutes.
If Robinson is too scary for you and you have the salary to get up to Damion Lee, I think that’s a decent strategy. Lee’s minutes also seem more secure as the Warriors are working on giving him a long-term deal and it would make sense for them to continue developing him during this lost season. Lee is also shooting 43.6% from beyond the arc over his last 10 games, and the Bucks allow the most three-pointers per game in the league at 14.2 (the Warriors are second at 13.5 three-pointers allowed). There’s some upside for Lee here if you have the funds to get him over Robinson.
Khris Middleton – This is a smash spot for Middleton on paper. The Warriors allow the most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards, and pairing Giannis with Middleton should soak up a ton of the Bucks’ production. The same concerns I have with Giannis in terms of minutes also applies with Middleton as he could see his minutes scaled back if this game gets out of hand, but you’re hoping that the game is out hand because Middleton is going off. The matchup is just too good to ignore and I have no problem slotting Middleton into a STAR or PRO spot and taking the multiplier on him
Thanks for reading, and good luck tonight. May variance be on your side.