FanDuel NBA Single-Game Strategy: Wizards/Trail Blazers DFS Preview
Update – Thomas Bryant is out with a foot injury and Ish Smith is now doubtful, which is good news for Jerome Robinson. With Bryant out, this is a boost for Davis Bertans and could give Anzejs Pasecniks some additional minutes, but I’d still rather go Robinson as my main punt option.
Hello Grinders. FanDuel has a solid single-game offering for tonight’s Washington Wizards vs Portland Trail Blazers game. Let’s dive in and see what we can make of this game.
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The Spread
As of late Tuesday night we still don’t have an over/under, but the Blazers open as 8.5-point favorites on the NBA odds board. It’s worth noting the Wizards are coming off a 133-126 loss to the Kings last night, so this is the back end of a back-to-back. Most of the starters played limited minutes with the exception of Bradley Beal, who played a game-high 39 minutes. Normally this would concern me but the Wizards haven’t shown any willingness to scale back Beal’s playing time despite the fact they have nothing left to play for other than pride. Just two weeks ago, the Wizards played Beal 39 and 41 minutes in a back-to-back, so I’m assuming we’ll see Beal get normal minutes once again. That should help keep this game somewhat close, but it’s hard not to think the Blazers come out strong here if the Wizards are tired from last night’s game.
The Injuries
The big news from this game is Damian Lillard is expected to return. That’s going to shift Gary Trent Jr. back to the bench, and it’s going to hurt C.J. McCollum big time as he’s been on fire lately with the offense flowing through him. Per CourtIQ, when Lillard is on the court, McCollum sees a -2.6% usage decline. There hasn’t been any word yet whether Lillard will be on any minutes restriction so I’ll update the article at the top if we do get word, but for the purposes of this article, I’m assuming he’s a full go.
The Options
Bradley Beal – As mentioned up top, I’m not expecting Beal to be limited despite playing 39 minutes last night. He’s now topped 50+ FanDuel points in six straight games and has been a man on mission since he got snubbed for the All-Star Game. It’s not the best matchup against the solid back court of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, who I respect as defenders, but we know Beal is going to get whatever shot he wants in this offense. If Vegas is right and this game can stay somewhat close, I’d expect Beal to be a major factor in that.
Damian Lillard – It’s hard to tell whether Lillard will get his normal workload right away coming off a groin injury, so I’m willing to go back on this recommendation should we get word during the day that Lillard will be limited. But this is someone who leads the team with a 30.4% usage rate and is averaging 1.3 fantasy points per minute when healthy. The matchup for Lillard is one of the best against a Wizards team that ranks 5th in pace and is dead last in defensive efficiency as a team. It’s tempting to pivot down to C.J. McCollum for $1,500 cheaper given the streak he’s been on, but McCollum is now much less appealing with Dame back. I’m willing to swap this recommendation to McCollum if we hear Lillard won’t get a full compliment of minutes, but for now, I’m siding with Dame.
Jerome Robinson or Mario Hezonja – There are two value plays that stand out to me, and they open up a ton if you choose one of them as they are both $6,000. They are Jerome Robinson and Mario Hezonja. I much prefer Robinson of the two, who is coming off a 30-minute performance and has scored 18+ FanDuel points in three of his last four games. That may not seem like much, and he’s not a big per-minute producer, but it appears that he’s carved out a role on the Wizards as Shabazz Napier is the starter by name but is not seeing a huge workload, while Ish Smith appears to be losing minutes to Robinson. The other punt option I’m calling out is Hezonja, who is coming off a big 28.6 FanDuel point performance. I’m more skeptical about Hezonja because 1) Lillard is coming back tonight, and that’s going to soak up a ton of usage and 2) Hezonja played 27 minutes last game despite seeing fewer than 15 minutes in his previous three outings, so I’m wondering if this was just a case of him getting hot and Coach Stotts riding the hot hand. I do think both are worth a look as a salary saver, but Robinson has the safer floor here in my opinion.
Trevor Ariza – Ariza’s price point of $9,500 is pretty fair, and like the other Blazers starters, he’s much less appealing with Lillard coming back. But this is someone who has played 34+ minutes for seven straight games and we know he’s going to be out there a ton tonight. This is more a play on his minutes upside as opposed to his per-minute production, which hasn’t been amazing. I doubt we see a 40+ FanDuel point performance out of Ariza anytime soon, but given the minutes and the matchup, there is at least upside here should he get lucky and run into a few more steals than he normally does.
Thanks for reading, and good luck tonight. May variance be on your side.