FanDuel NFL Single-Game Strategy: 49ers/Seahawks DFS Preview
FanDuel has a nice single-game contest going on for the Sunday Night game featuring the 49ers and Seahawks. Let’s quickly look at some of the game factors and touch on some possible roster construction options for our daily fantasy football lineups.
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The Game Environment
Vegas has this game pegged at a 47 over/under, which would’ve been the second highest implied total if this game were on a main slate. Only the Falcons/Bucs game has a higher implied team total at 48, to provide some context. Despite being on the road, the 49ers are slight 3.5 point favorites. When these two teams met a few weeks ago, the Seahawks won in overtime 27-24, so a 47 over/under does sound reasonable if we see another similar game. But that’s a big “if” considering we have a ton of injuries in play now.
The Injuries
San Francisco RG Mike Person is questionable for this game, and that may be their most impactful injury. On the Seahawks side, Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny and C.J. Prosise are all done for the year while Josh Gordon was suspended for the year. This forced the Seahawks to sign free agent and fan favorite Marshawn Lynch, as well as Robert Turbin for depth. It’s worth noting the team still has 6th round rookie Travis Homer on the roster and it’s possible Homer sees the majority of work in this backfield as both Lynch and Turbin work their way back into game shape.
The Situation
There are some playoff implications for this game, although both teams have clinched a playoff spot. If the 49ers win or tie this game, they clinch the NFL West title. The 49ers could clinch a 1st round bye if:
1. SF win OR
2. SF tie + GB loss or tie OR
3. SF tie + NO loss or tie
The 49ers could even clinch homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs if:
1. SF win OR
2. SF tie + GB loss or tie + NO loss or tie
For the Seahawks, a win would give them the NFC West title. They could clinch a 1st round bye with a win and a Packers loss. And should the Seahawks win, the Packers lose and the Saints lose, Seattle would clinch homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.
The Plays
Before even diving into any specific plays, a lot here depends on your read of the Marshawn Lynch situation. Lynch is 33 years old and has been out of the game for over a year. The last time he took a hit on the field was October 14, 2018. You could argue that he’s “fresh” having been on the sidelines for a year, but you have to wonder how much is in the tank. Based on everything I’ve read, nobody knows what to expect from Lynch, including the beat writers. Coach speak has been that the team will lean on Travis Homer, and that makes sense given he’s been with the team all season and showed the ability to work in the passing game during the preseason. I’m going to assume Lynch doesn’t see a workhorse load here and is moreso a GPP dart throw who could rumble into the end zone for a touchdown or two in goal line sets, but is otherwise somewhat risky.
Raheem Mostert – It feels scary to suggest a 49ers running back considering San Francisco has been using a committee approach all season, but Mostert has emerged late in the season as the clear lead back. He played on 54% of the snaps last week for the 49ers, compared to Tevin Coleman at 42%. Mostert finished with an 11-53-1 line on the ground but more importantly, Matt Breida didn’t even touch the field. This is how Coach Shanahan explained the situation:
“Went through a little bit of a lull in the third quarter where we had a number of three-and-outs, so it was tough to sub him in,” Shanahan said. “We didn’t have any long drives. The runs that the other two guys did get, they were being effective. It was nothing against Matt. Just unfortunate how the game worked out for him.”
This doesn’t mean Breida won’t find the field this week, but it’s clear he’s now the distant #3 back in this backfield, making Mostert’s role much safer. The Seahawks rank just 26th in Run DVOA and just allowed Kenyan Drake to gash them for a 24-166-2 line on the ground last week, so this is a vulnerable run defense that the 49ers can exploit.
George Kittle – I was initially going to write up Kittle + Jimmy G for the stack, but I actually think it’s viable not to pair Kittle with Garoppolo in this format. In their first meeting, Kittle did not play, leaving Deebo Samuel to go off for a 8-112-0 line and Kendrick Bourne to find the end zone for the lone receiving touchdown for the 49ers. Kittle’s five receiving touchdowns is tied with Bourne for the team lead, but his 100 team targets is leaps and bounds the most on this team by a huge margin (Samuel is next at just 76). The Seahawks rank 14th against the pass so it’s not an easy matchup on paper, but I would have to think Kittle gets peppered with targets here. We’ve seen Garoppolo flash some upside this season against the Saints and Cardinals (twice), but he’s also been held to <19 FD points in 10 of his last 13 games. In other words I have no problem using Kittle here and hoping he captures a lot of the production from the receiving game.
Russell Wilson + Jacob Hollister – If you assume a negative game script for the Seahawks and that Vegas is right in the 49ers being a slight favorite, it makes sense to pair Russell Wilson with one of his pass catchers. In my opinion Tyler Lockett is too expensive at $12,000, as the 49ers rank 2nd in Pass DVOA and I question we see a ceiling game from Lockett (who has also been #bad down the stretch). For me it would either be between DK Metcalf (who played on a team-high 98% of snaps last game) or tight end Jacob Hollister. Hollister roasted this 49ers defense a few weeks ago for a 8-62-1 line off 10 targets and finished with 16.2 FD points. We also just saw fellow tight end Tyler Higbee roast the 49ers defense for 104 receiving yards and 14.9 FD points. At $8,000, pairing Hollister with Wilson and hoping he’s the one finding the end zone here for the Seahawks makes some sense.
Travis Homer – As mentioned in the opener, there are plenty of question marks around what the Seahawks do in the run game. I don’t love Homer’s price, but I felt it was best to write him up and break him down further to save you some work.
Homer is a 6th round pick from Miami who had a career 334/1,995/12 rushing line and a career 37/405/1 receiving line. He ran a 4.48 40-yard dash and excelled in special teams in college as well. In the preseason, Homer rushed 19 times for 85 yards (4.5 yards per carry), including a 27-yard carry. Homer hasn’t seen a major role during the regular season, but he does have eight carries for 52 yards while he’s also caught six of his eight targets.In the past two weeks, we’ve seen Chris Carson get an 80/20 split with C.J. Prosise, so it’s not impossible that we see something similar here with Homer and one (or both) of Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin. You can make an argument there’s a chance Homer loses some goal-line work to those two, but again, we don’t know what his role would be. I’d definitely include some shares of Homer if MME’ing, but this play comes down to your risk tolerance on how much you’re willing to embrace the unknown.
Thanks for reading, and good luck on Sunday. May variance be on your side.