FanDuel NFL Single-Game Strategy: Seahawks/Packers DFS Preview
Update – Jaron Brown and Malik Turner appear to be available to play, giving the Seahawks Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, David Moore, Jaron Brown and Malik Turner as wideout options
Hello Grinders. FanDuel has a nice single-game contest going on for the Sunday Night game featuring the Seahawks and Packers for this Divisional Round Weekend. Let’s quickly look at some of the game factors and touch on some possible roster construction options for our daily fantasy football lineups.
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The Game Environment
Vegas has this game with a 47 over/under, which is the second highest total this weekend only to the Texans/Chiefs game at 51. The Packers enter as 4.5 point home favorites, which is pretty significant because I always have interest in Russell Wilson when he’s playing from behind and the Seahawks are forced to rely on him. We’ll see if that comes into fruition when the game plays out, but that’s worth keeping in mind when you start building lineups and thinking through likely game scripts. I will mention the Packers have been much better against the pass this season, ranking 10th in pass DVOA compared to 23rd in run DVOA. Similarly, the Seahawks have struggled more against the run, ranking 15th in pass DVOA but 26th in run DVOA.
The Injuries
On the Seahawks side, wideout Malik Turner remains questionable while Jaron Brown is trending towards playing. Should one or both be one, that would be a boost for David Moore. I’ll be sure to update the statuses for Turner and Brown should we get something more definitive this weekend. For the Packers, the only injury of note is Jamaal Williams, who is also trending towards playing. Williams has been a full participant in practices this week meaning Aaron Jones may take a hit this week with the Packers now having both backs available. We did get confirmation that RT Bryan Bulaga passed the concussion protocol, so he’ll be available to help guard against Jadeveon Clowney.
The Plays
Let’s look at a few potential stacks we could use, focusing in on some game scripts:
1. Russell Wilson + D.K. Metcalf + Aaron Jones – This one is expensive but it assumes a negative game script for the Seahawks where they are playing from behind (like Vegas is predicting) and the Packers are scoring through the ground via Aaron Jones. As mentioned above, the Seahawks do rank 26th against the run, meaning Jones could have some solid success here. We saw Jones erupt down the stretch, scoring 28.2, 17.1, 27 and 15.3 FD points over his last four games. The return of Jamaal Williams does throw a wrinkle into this stack as Williams is a threat to steal work away from Jones, so just keep that in mind. On the Seahawks side, pairing Wilson with Metcalf makes some sense as Metcalf emerged as one of Wilson’s favorite red zone targets this season. Over his last four games (including last week’s Wild Card game), Metcalf has found the end zone three times.
2. Aaron Rodgers + Davante Adams + Marshawn Lynch – This flips the game script as the one above, where we now assume the Seahawks are operating with a lead and the Packers are playing from behind. In this stack, your hope is that Lynch is the one finding the end zone for Seattle. Lynch only had six carries last week compared to 11 by Travis Homer, but it was Lynch who found the end zone. There are quotes by Coach Carroll suggesting Lynch may be in for an expanded role in this game now that he’s had more time with the team and given the stakes are much higher. On the Packers side, a negative game script would bode well fro Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams, who remains Rodgers’ clear cut number one option. Adams had five receiving touchdowns over his last six games and carries a safe floor given his role on this offense.
3. Russell Wilson + Aaron Jones + Jamaal Williams – This one is a bit contrarian in that its goal is to try and cover as many of the potential touchdowns as possible. By pairing Jones and Williams together, your hope is to capture all the backfield work for Green Bay. Maybe one has a huge game or perhaps both find the end zone, and this way you’ve got this entire running back situation covered. On the Seattle side, playing Russell Wilson allows you to get exposure to all the passing touchdowns. By playing both Jones and Williams together, which I doubt many will do, you can fill in the other two remaining spots with chalk players if you’d like as you should be somewhat differentiated already by playing both Green Bay running backs.
4. Aaron Rodgers + Allen Lazard – Most people who are focusing on the Packers passing attack will likely stack Aaron Rodgers with Davante Adams. But by either including Allen Lazard in that stack or instead going with a Rodgers + Lazard stack, you’ll differentiate yourself a bit from the field. Lazard has shown big-play upside and caught touchdowns in two of his last five games. More importantly, he was playing up to 76% of the snaps in the final three games and running ahead of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Geronimo Allison and Jake Kumerow. Lazard is only $8,500 and his big-play upside gives him touchdown appeal in this matchup.
Thanks for reading, and good luck on Sunday. May variance be on your side.