FanDuel SportsBook MLB Plays: Thursday, July 18th
We’re into the heart of the summer, which means insufferable heat and plenty of MLB betting action. We’re still a little ways away from any sort of meaningful football and the NBA is even further down the road, so this time of the year is made for baseball. It’s an abbreviated main slate this evening, but there are still a few night games I’m getting down on.
Let’s get started on breaking down the MLB odds for tonight.
Arizona Diamondbacks ML -108 – The D’Backs return home after faring well in Arlington, knocking off Lance Lynn on Tuesday followed by a 19-run effort on Wednesday. They’ll return home to face a Milwaukee team that just won a home series against a very tough Braves squad, but fortunately, Arizona will get to tee off on one of Milwaukee’s most hittable arms. Those who are living in the stone age and still look at pitchers win-loss records might be surprised to see that Davies estimators are considerably higher than his ERA, and a home draw against the Giants in his most recent start was his first plus outing since the very beginning of June. The most important factor to me here is that despite the Brewers getting more of the public tickets and money, the line has moved slightly away from them suggesting some sharp action on the home team as an unpopular favorite. At close to even money, I’ll be riding with Arizona. I think the over also has some value here.
Atlanta Braves ML +118 – The Braves will throw Kyle Wright in the series opener with Julio Teheran, who was the originally listed starter, pushed back a day. Wright has struggled in his very limited time in the big leagues but is still a very highly thought of prospect that will come into his own. On the bump for the Nationals will be Stephen Strasburg, so the starting pitcher advantage clearly goes to the Washington side. However, the Braves have seen a TON of Strasburg over the past few years, and they’ve had success against him. Atlanta is one of the tougher draws out there regardless of SP handedness as they can challenge you up and down the lineup, and arguably their most talented hitter in Freddie Freeman has had some notable success against Stras in the past. Washington is getting almost 60% of the public betting tickets at the time of this writing, but it’s the Braves who have more than half of the total money, indicating some sharp action on this side. This is another game where I’m leaning towards the over as well.
Detriot Tigers F5 ML +160 – This one is admittedly a little scary given how putrid Detroit’s offense is against right-handed pitching. It’s especially scary when they are facing one of the better right-handed arms in the league, although there are quite a few metrics to suggest that the better starter in this game is on the Detroit side. Bauer has an 4.17 SIERA which hints that some minor regression may be coming, and a walk rate just shy of 10% does give the Tigers an avenue to reach base without actually having to put the ball in play. Despite having a lot of success against right-handed pitching, the Indians are a bottom-ten offense against southpaws and will have to face off with one of the best in the league with Matt Boyd toeing the rubber. Boyd does have his issues with the long ball and that very well may continue tonight, but he otherwise does a great job of limiting damage and should make quick work of the bottom of Cleveland’s left-handed heavy lineup. Cleveland does have a much better pen than the Tigers, so I’ll ride Detroit in the first five here and hope they can get to Bauer just enough to give Boyd a shot at the win.