Fantasy Football and the NFL Playoff Picture

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2012-12-20 21:58:56

Looking back at the year that was, my least profitable times were at the end of the MLB and NBA seasons. In truly daily fantasy sports it can be difficult to adjust on the fly to the idea of starters sitting out to rest and random role or bench players having massive nights. But with the NFL we have an entire week to prepare so with Week 16 on the horizon, let’s take a peek at the playoff implications and try to find which teams can be counted on most this weekend to give it 110%.

First, I’ll go through the NFL Playoff Picture and look at which teams are still fighting for something and which teams have either clinched or have nothing left to play for. I’ll discuss all of the NFL fantasy implications that come with the playoff races. I’ll do this for Week 16 and then next week for Week 17.

The important thing to note here is that the severity of stars being benched in Week 16 isn’t all too much but you should still be aware of what’s going on. Some teams MIGHT sit starters in the 4th quarter if the game becomes a blowout, so I’m not saying you should totally ignore these guys but rather be prepared for them to potentially only play 3 quarters. For Week 17 you will need to be watching the player news like a hawk.

NFL Standings

NFC Playoff Picture

AFC Playoff Picture

Breaking Down Implications By Team

For the team breakdown of this article we will focus on the teams you can trust, ones you should be wary of, and those who you might just be better off avoiding.

Teams Who Will Be “All-In” In Week 16

• Dallas Cowboys – In the thick of a playoff race, it’s all hands on deck for the Boys.
• New York Giants – On the cusp of not making the playoffs after the Superbowl last season. They are definitely all in.
• Washington Redskins – Control their own destiny. Two wins and they take the NFC East.
• Pittsburgh Steelers – Need to beat Cincy this weekend to have a fighting chance at a playoff spot.
• Cincinnati Bengals – On the flip side, the Bengals have to hold off the Burgh to secure a playoff spot.
• San Francisco 49ers – A loss this weekend and they may end up as a wildcard team.
• Seattle Seahawks – A win this weekend and they can win the NFC West.
• Minnesota Vikings – So surprised that they would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. AP and company won’t rest a bit.
• Chicago Bears – Hanging on their last thread. You’ll see an all out effort this week but if they lose Week 17 will be a different story.
• Indianapolis Colts – Win and you’re in for Andrew Luck and company.
• Carolina Panthers – Quick note, I see this as a team that is looking to prove to themselves they are a good football team for next season.
• Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles might be the face of “quitting on your season” but Foles wants to prove he can be an NFL starting quarterback and this is his audition time.
• Cleveland Browns – A young team looking to improve and grow, they won’t be resting any starters.
• Baltimore Ravens – They have a playoff spot locked up but they don’t want to “back in”. They need to find their identity in the next two weeks.
• Miami Dolphins – Still not mathematically eliminated with a rookie QB looking to build for next year. Reggie Bush in a contract year means he too will be trying to earn some extra cash in the final two weeks.

Teams You Must Proceed Cautiously With

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers – After that embarrassing loss last week, they are eliminated from the playoff picture and Freeman’s benching scares me. Could see a big let down but the starters should see their regular run.
• St. Louis Rams – All but eliminated in the NFC West, the Rams are never a great fantasy option and their bleak outlook makes them even worse.
• Detroit Lions – Outside of Calvin Johnson going for the receiving record, the rest of the Lions have quit on this season.
• Denver Broncos – An example of a team where if the game gets out of hand in either direction the stars may sit down. Manning and company will certainly start but if it’s a blowout in either direction in the 4th you could see the subs in the 4th.
• New England Patriots – Could become a blowout in Jacksonville. If so, Brady will likely sit after 3 quarters.
• Houston Texans – Schaub, Johnson and Foster will likely take a seat late if the game starts leaning heavily in one direction. Not saying they won’t play but if the outcome is clear late, then you might not get the full 4 quarters out of them.
• Atlanta Falcons – Much like the Pats, Broncos and Texans, Atlanta has very little to play for and relies way too much on some guys with injury issues this season like Roddy and Julio so you may not see them finish the entire game.
• Green Bay Packers – They have a history of benching their starters and if the gang gets well ahead against Tennessee in Week 16 you may see them pull back on the reigns especially with Jordy and Jennings having fought injuries all year.
• New Orleans Saints – Not quite eliminated yet but they are on the verge and face a hard-hitting Cowboys D. They can’t lose Brees and this season is over.
• Tennessee Titans – Another young team I think will try to build a foundation for next season but that leaves a lot of question marks as to who might see some more touches.

Teams That You’d Be Better Off Avoiding Altogether

• New York Jets – Run and never look back, this team is a ticking time bomb.
• Kansas City Chiefs – A possible Ricky Stanzi sighting at QB and a laundry list of injuries makes them a must avoid. Even Charles will likely be cautiously used because of his injury history.
• Buffalo Bills – A nightmare season is about to come to an end with a whimper.
• Arizona Cardinals – Their offense is a joke, their season is over and they don’t seem to really care.
• Oakland Raiders – A once potent offense this season is in shambles and they will be looking to see if anyone on their bench can step in and earn a role for next year.
• Jacksonville Jaguars – Going for the worst record in the NFL and that #1 overall pick shouldn’t be hard against New England.
• San Diego Chargers – They already saw Matthews hit the IR last week, so expect them to try and avoid more serious injuries in Week 16 with their season in the tank.

Five Stars You Can Trust in Week 16

For this section I’ll discuss which fantasy stars you can trust in Week 16 because they are playing for the postseason, a contract, or a job. I’ll also look at their DraftKings salaries because of their $250K Main Event this weekend.

Five Quarterback Stars To Trust

#1) Eli Manning – I can’t believe I’m saying this after last week’s embarrassment but the Giants have us all right where they want us. They are in a now or never spot and Eli is going to have to muster up a big game against Baltimore. At $6,900 on DK, you can guarantee he’ll go the distance this weekend.

#2) Robert Griffin III – If healthy, RG3 will be an excellent play this weekend as the Redskins control their own destiny. Shanahan won’t rush him back for a game against Cleveland but this one is too important not to roll the dice and have RG3 out there. If he’s healthy enough to go, plug him in a bunch of lineups.

#3) Cam Newton – As I said earlier, the Panthers are looking to build on next season and are not in full tank mode. Newton has a great match up and even at $9500 on DK he offers great upside as he will certainly play the whole game.

#4) Andrew Luck – Like RG3, the rookie phenom is battling for a playoff spot where he controls his own destiny. All systems go on Luck this week at $8800

#5) Tony Romo – The final leg of the NFC East battle is Dallas. Romo has the best matchup of all NFC East quarterbacks and the arguably the best weapons surrounding him. Romo might also be playing for his job as another season without the playoffs in Dallas could bring on BIG changes.

Five Running Back Stars To Trust

#1) Adrian Peterson – If you can afford him at $9K on DraftKings then do yourself a favor and get him. I don’t care that Houston’s rush D is incredible because Peterson has yet to be stopped by anyone this season. He’s a man possessed, chasing the rushing record AND his team is actually in the playoffs if the season ended today.

#2) Knowshon Moreno – Moreno will probably be the beneficiary of the Broncos taking a cautious approach with Manning and their star wideouts. That should lead to a ton of touches this week and incredible value on DK at $6300.

#3) DeMarco Murray – Much like Romo, Murray comes in with a great matchup and a big reason to play hard. The playoffs are looming and Murray has gone over the 20 FP mark twice since coming back from injury with the other game being a 17 point performance. Murray is a GREAT play this weekend at $6200.

#4) Reggie Bush – At $5800, Bush comes in as one of my favorite plays of the weekend for upside and value. The Bills struggle against the run, Miami hasn’t yet been eliminated from the playoffs (although they don’t have much of a shot), and Bush is playing for a contract. Look for him to run hungry.

#5) Trent Richardson – The matchup is tough and you can probably do better as far as value goes on DK because he’s $6800. But Richardson should be going all out in an effort to get ready for next season. Rookies are usually pretty trustworthy at the end of the year because coaches will be looking to grow them.

Five Wide Receiver Stars To Trust

#1) Brandon Marshall – The Bears, as discussed above, are on their last legs and Marshall is one of the most competitive guys in the NFL. At $8K on DraftKings I expect a monster performance from Marshall as he will be “all-in” this week and using his best Jamie Robbins “one-time”.

#2) Randall Cobb – Cobb is the one Packers WR who hasn’t had significant injury problems this season so while I think GB reigns in Jennings and Jordy (if he plays) to keep them healthy for the playoffs, it should be all systems go on Cobb who at $6K on DK is a bargain especially with the full point PPR.

#3) Calvin Johnson – Not a DK Main Event pick because it’s the Saturday night game but Johnson is chasing the receiving record and will be giving every last effort he has to take it down. Expect another 20 targets for him against ATL this week.

#4) Mike Wallace – The Steelers are fighting for all they’ve got on Sunday in an intense division match-up with Cincy. Wallace will need to bring his A game and will certainly be in for a ton of targets and action. No chance he finds the bench unless he gets hurt.

#5) Miles Austin – Dez should be good to go again but I think it’s Austin this week who comes up big for the Boys. A PPR machine, Austin can put up big numbers on DK and offers tremendous value at $5100.

Three Tight Ends to Trust

#1) Jason Witten – I have a Cowboy at every position in the players to trust because they face a soft defense and are playing for more than even a playoff spot. If this team misses out again it could be complete restructuring. Oh and he’s only $5600 on DK.

#2) Heath Miller – Miller, like the entire Steelers team, will be going for it big on Sunday and playing desperate. I like taking guys on an experienced team that is desperate, especially ones who are only $4K and have gone over 10 FP in each of their past 3 games.

#3) Martellus Bennett – The G-Men will need Bennett to come up big this weekend if they want a chance of beating the Ravens and staying alive in the NFC East.

Three Stars To Be Wary Of

For this section I’ll flip the script and let you know who you should be afraid of this weekend because of playoff implications or other factors. Except I’ll hold it to 3 guys this week and open it up to 5 next week when there is a lot more clarity in the playoff picture.

Three Quarterback Stars To Be Wary Of

#1) Peyton Manning – The Broncos are going to take ZERO chances with Manning getting injured. They are counting their lucky stars that he made it this far and the last thing they want to do is kick a gift horse in the mouth(I think I said that right, I’m not very country.) So if this one is a blowout at the end, Manning could sit.

#2) Tom Brady – This one is a juicy matchup and he could easily cover his salary after just 3 quarters but the blowout possibility and the fact that the Pats have clinched the division makes me weary of Tommy Bahama.

#3) Matt Schaub – Like Manning and Brady, Schaub is an older QB who is playing for very little in Week 16. Look for the Texans to play him cautiously and have no fear about inserting Yates after a few quarters in a blowout.

Three Running Back Stars To Wary Of

#1) Darren McFadden – Between the injury-plagued season, the terrible rush attack and the disaster that is the Oakland Raiders, I’d say just steer clear of McFadden. Yes he has upside but he could easily ruin your week in the DK $250K Main Event.

#2) LeSean McCoy – McCoy should be back this week for the Eagles but the combo of Bryce Brown playing fairly well and the Eagles having nothing to play for makes me think he’s just not worth it.

#3) Arian Foster – Much like Schaub, Foster will be shut down if he even sneezes on the sideline. The Texans know this is their year to make a run at the Superbowl and will let nothing hold them back.

Three Wide Receiver Stars To Be Wary Of

#1) Andre Johnson – Seeing a pattern with Houston? Johnson is an older WR who means everything to the Texans offense. If he wakes up with a runny nose he won’t see the field in these meaningless games. More likely though, he only plays a 2-3 quarters.

#2) Greg Jennings – I mentioned above how I like Randall Cobb. Well that’s because I think Jennings plays very sparingly in these final two weeks. If anything they will target him a few times to try and get him back in the swing of the offense and while he’s fighting for a contract, the Packers know they will need him at full strength in the playoffs.

#3) Julio Jones and Roddy White – I’ll combine the duo because deciding which one to play has been harder to crack than the Da Vinci Code this season. Anyways just avoid them altogether as the Falcons aren’t playing for much and both have been banged up. Atlanta won’t risk losing either of them for the playoffs.

Three Tight End Stars To Be Wary Of

#1) Rob Gronkowski – Gronk practiced today and looks like he might give it a go this weekend. Even if he does Belichick will use him very cautiously and work to avoid injuries. Don’t trust a guy on a team that has clinched and is coming off of injury, that’s a basic fact of life.

#2) Jimmy Graham – Graham is knicked up and the Saints know how important he is to their long term success so they will likely play it safe with Graham and use him sparingly. At his price tag he’s just not worth the headache.

#3) Owen Daniels – This completes the Houston quad-fecta. Daniels is another guy that Houston knows they can’t lose and they have decent backups who can step in and do enough to keep the game close and keep Daniels healthy.

Alright so that about does it for the Week 16 NFL Fantasy Playoff Implications breakdown. I hope you learned something and whether you agree or disagree with these predictions you definitely know the playoff implications will be in your mind when picking lineups this week. So be sure to follow the injury updates closely and try your best to avoid the Jets! Good luck this week to everyone in the DK Main Event, I’m still trying to earn a seat but student loans take priority in my bankroll.