Fantasy Football Injuries & Notes Ahead of NFL Week 4
Injuries are a bummer and one of the worst things about fantasy football, but unfortunately, they are inevitable. When they occur, roles adjust and many times a player will emerge with an increased expectation in snaps and target share which means more potential fantasy points. Generally speaking, players on DraftKings are priced based on what they’ve done and not what they are expected to do when given more offensive responsibility in a new role.
The purpose of this article is simple. I will highlight injuries that may lead to some players being too cheap for a bigger role in Week 3.
NFL Week 4 Injury Report
Mike Williams [ACL, Out for Season]
David Montgomery [thigh, Q]
Derek Carr [shoulder, week to week]
Aaron Jones [hamstring, Q]
Austin Ekeler [ankle, Q]
Saquon Barkley [ankle, day to day]
Christian Watson [hamstring, P]
Rashod Bateman [hamstring, Q]
Anthony Richardson [concussion protocol]
Jaylen Waddle [concussion protocol]
Jimmy Garoppolo [concussion protocol]
Jonathan Mingo [concussion protocol]
Gus Edwards [concussion protocol]
Fantasy Football & DFS Impact for NFL Week 4
Joshua Palmer – $4,000
It is early, but Palmer is looking like a top value play on the main slate. The brutal season-ending injury to Mike Williams opens the door for Palmer to get a boost in snaps/targets, especially considering pass-catching RB Austin Ekeler is looking dicey to play this week. Some people are going to try and make the much-hyped rookie Quentin Johnson happen, but I think the Chargers continue to bring him along slowly. I can absolutely see a scenario where QT overtakes Palmer at some point in the season, but in DFS we care about today and today only. While you can definitely tell yourself a story and roster Johnson, Palmer feels like the more reliable cheapie on the LAC depth chart.
Maybe a little trickle-down goes to the TEs. In Week 3 Gerald Everett outsnapped Donald Parham (38 to 34), ran more routes (24 to 17), and saw more targets (6 to 2), but DPJ had a ridiculous run out of 2 catches for 4 yards and 2 touchdowns. Typically, I would say we shouldn’t chase this fool’s gold, but idk; maybe the Chargers run more 2 TE sets going forward? Also, what do we really need out of $2,800 TE when considering the low positional opportunity cost and what that savings opens up for you at other positions?
Adam Thielen – $4,500
Just to get this out of the way, I’m taking a big ol’ L here as I thought 2023 Adam Thielen was gonna be dustier than the Sahara Desert. How this relates to injuries is WR Jonathan Mingo is currently questionable and franchise QB Bryce Young missed last game with an ankle. Professional game manager Andy Dalton loved himself some Thielen last week as he targeted him 14 times leading to a 11-145-1 game for the vet WR. Ideally for Carolina Young will be the man sooner than later, but specific to this week, I want Dalton to draw another start if I’m rostering Thielen. To be clear, I don’t need that to be the case, but I do think Adam will take a slight hit if Young is back. Some people love their REVENGE games, which is fine, while others get excited at the prospect of rostering players against the putrid Vikings defense. With Adam Thielen this week you don’t have to choose, as you get both.
A few other situations to monitor
If Anthony Richardson can pass concussion protocol, I’d love to see what he can do vs. the Rams in the dome. The Rams’ defense hasn’t exactly looked as bad as anticipated, but I feel like they overachieved a little, and I expect them to eventually be a bottom-five defense.
This is not injury related, but I just wanted to note that Alvin Kamara three-game suspension is up. It will be interesting to see how much the Saints are willing to give him in his season debut vs. TB. Speaking of the Saints, and REVENGE GAMES, it is looking likely that teammate Jameis Winston will draw the start vs. his former team. Officially, I currently don’t love it, but at $5,300, I’m okay with it.
Feel free to follow me @DFS_Almanac and tell me what you agree/disagree with, who I left off the list, and just your general NFL thoughts/questions. The RotoGrinders team (including myself) will be live on the RotoGrinders YouTube channel every Sunday at 9:30AM breaking down the main NFL DFS slate and all the late breaking news right up to kickoff.
Please note that as more information and news breaks the closer we get to kickoff, injury designations are subject to change. Make sure to sign up for RG Premium to get the most accurate information and projections.