NBA Finals Game 5: Betting Notes, Odds and Predictions

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If you had the Lakers -7 in Game 4, Tyler Herro was a villain on Tuesday night. Millions of dollars exchanged hands with Herro’s “meaningless” three-pointer, which narrowed a 9-point margin to a 6-points in the final 1.1 seconds of the game. Of course, if you were on the Heat side of things, then Herro was, well, a hero — like he’s been for much of the NBA playoffs.

Herro’s heroics have helped the Heat cover the spread in a whopping 15 of their 19 playoff games. Can they do it again Friday night in the fifth and possibly final game of the 2020 NBA Finals?

NBA Finals Game 5 Odds

Dragic Remains Doubtful

Unfortunately for the Heat, it looks as if they’ll have to play Game 5 without starting guard, Goran Dragic. Despite getting an extra day of rest between games 4 and 5, Dragic remains doubtful after injuring his foot in the series opener.

Dragic was a pivotal piece for the Heat’s offense, but they’ve covered the spread in each game of the NBA Finals without him, including an outright win in Game 3.

LeBron Knows How to Close

LeBron James is 38-10 (.792 win percentage) in games where his team can clinch a postseason series. With James and the Lakers up 3-1, you should feel pretty good if you have a Lakers futures ticket or if you bet on the them to win the series.

The Lakers will wear their Black Mamba uniforms tonight, which were designed by James and inspired by Kobe Bryant. True to form, the Lakers have yet to lose while wearing the commemorative jerseys.

According to RotoGrinders’ NBA odds comparison tool, the best moneyline price for the Lakers in Game 5 is -320 at PointsBet. Feeling good about Jimmy Butler and Heat with their backs against the wall? You can get +260 on them extending the series by signing up at BetMGM.

Game 5 Predictions — Finals MVP & Props

With somewhat poor performances from Anthony Davis in Games 3 and 4, James has pulled away in the NBA Finals MVP race. Up from his -275 pricetag on Wednesday, James is a massive -1000 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Behind James sit Anthony Davis +600, Jimmy Butler +2300, and Bam Adebayo +2000.

Oddsmakers are right — this race isn’t close. James is averaging a series-high in points (27.8) and rebounds (11.0). He’s also fallen just short of recording a triple-double in each game, which means he’s dishing out plenty of assists.

However, not everyone thinks James has as big of a lead as sportsbooks do. Writing for CBS Sports, Sam Quinn says James’ lead over Davis is only a “slim” one. Sorry, Sam, but I’m inclined to trust the oddsmakers.

If James does win Finals MVP, he’ll be the first player to win the award with three different teams. It’s fitting that he does it while wearing the Black Mamba jersey tonight — Kobe won Finals MVP twice with the Lakers during his NBA career.

And if you still want a piece of the James Finals MVP action despite the hefty price, head to FanDuel Sportsbook where you can bet James -800.

Game 5 Player Props

Though I’m pretty comfortable with my Finals MVP ticket, which I grabbed when James was merely -190 to win the award after Game 1, it’s still worth looking for hedge opportunities.

Barring an injury or some other unforeseen event, James will win NBA Finals MVP, but one way to hedge is to bet Over on Anthony Davis player props.

I’m taking Davis Over 29.5 points in Game 5. Davis needs to score at least 30 points in his remaining games to have a chance at stealing the award. Best case scenario, Davis drops 30 tonight, the Lakers close the series and James wins MVP tonight. That’s actually how I think things play out.

NBA Finals Game 5 Betting Picks

The Miami Heat haven’t rolled over yet, and I don’t expect them to do so now. Led by Jimmy Butler, the Heat have all the confidence in the world regardless of where the series currently stands. They’ve shocked teams throughout the playoffs and continue to stay competitive with the Lakers despite being hobbled by injuries.

I’d be lying if I said there was an edge on either side of tonight’s spread. The oddsmakers have this one pinned down, just as they did on Wednesday. But more than likely, this is our last NBA game to bet on until later in the winter, so you don’t have to twist my arm to get me to bet.

The Heat have heart, but the Lakers have James, Davis, and Black Mamba jerseys. I expect the Lakers to pull away in the fourth quarter, and this time, Herro won’t be taking a last-second three-pointer.

Game 5 Pick: Lakers -7

Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images

About the Author

schmitto
Matt Schmitto (schmitto)

Matt Schmitto is an Organic Strategy Lead for Better Collective. He was introduced to daily fantasy sports in 2012 and soon became a member at RotoGrinders. Seven years later, Schmitto joined RotoGrinders Network full time as a staff writer shortly after the Supreme Court overturned PASPA. He has since covered important stories in the sports betting and fantasy sports industries for sites like SportsHandle and USBets and has had roles as a sports betting editor and commercial content manager. He continues to play DFS and loves placing Futures bets at sportsbooks. His favorite DFS sites are DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, and PrizePicks. Follow Schmitto on Twitter – @Matt_Schmitto