Fontaine's Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 11

by Bryan Fontaine (rookieblitz) Last Updated 2013-11-17 00:56:36

Each week I will recommend several players that are primed for big performances when you look deeper at the numbers and trends. With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football, simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone won’t give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups.

The best part of daily fantasy football is you can start fresh every week and learn from mistakes and missteps the week before. Let’s get to it. I’ve tried to go with some less obvious picks to give you some players worth using in GPP tournaments that will have a lower ownership percentage.

Here are my picks for this week:

Note: Hit the ($) icon for player prices this week. All tables are sortable.

Case Keenum – (QB) Texans vs. OAK

This matchup on paper will become even better for Keenum if Matt McGloin makes his first NFL start. We know the story with Keenum. He’s gone from third string quarterback to rising star and in the process displayed an ability to make the Texans’ passing game more explosive.

In the side by side comparison below, the differences between Keenum and Matt Schaub become more apparent:

Keenum is completing a lower percentage of passes but throwing downfield almost a full four yards more than Schaub did earlier this year. That has reinvigorated Andre Johnson and the veteran receiver is playing some of the best football of his career in recent weeks.

The Raiders have been awful against opposing quarterbacks recently. They are allowing quarterbacks to complete 73 percent of their throws for an average of 266 yards and two touchdowns. Keenum has also displayed some surprising scrambling ability on play action fakes and bootlegs. His scramble rate of 3.5 percent is above the league average and the Raiders have been burned there as well – allowing 12 QB scrambles for 80 yards and a touchdown through nine games.

I really like pairing Keenum and Andre Johnson, who is a semi-obvious play, in a GPP especially with only an ailing Ben Tate and Dennis Johnson at running back.

Projection:

Josh McCown – (QB) Bears vs. BAL

Josh McCown returns to the starting lineup with Jay Cutler dealing with a high ankle sprain. Lucky for McCown this is a good matchup against the Ravens. Obviously McCown’s salary across the industry will be in the backup range but if we do a side by side comparison of his passing metrics with Cutler, we see that they have functioned similarly in the offense. The only caveat is that McCown does not possess the same arm strength that Cutler has in spades:

McCown has a comparable completion percentage and can make all the required depth throws (aDOT) that Cutler can with the added benefit of more scrambling opportunities.

The Ravens defense has been up and down lately after facing Tannehill, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Campbell and Dalton in their last five games. Per game, they have allowed 264 passing yards and 1.6 passing touchdowns with an addiotnal 2.5 QB scrambles for 19.3 yards. McCown is a sneaky bet to add two fantasy points to his total just on a few scrambles. Lardarius Webb, Corey Graham and Jimmy Smith have been below average in coverage as well and Marshall/Jeffery should have a field day which makes Bennett a sneaky play (more on him later). A semi-Bears stack of McCown/Jeffery/Bennett could be dangerous in a large field tournament.

Projection:

Darren Sproles – (RB) Saints vs. SF

Don’t view using Sproles this weekend as chasing last week’s points – the Saints finally remembered how to utilize him. Plus he is much better on the home turf of the Superdome. This week he looked more like the 2012 version of himself with seven catches for 76 yards and a touchdown and didn’t look too bad in his few rushing attempts, adding a rushing touchdown there as well. Each game Sproles is targeted on a third of his pass routes run which equates to about eight targets per week. At an 83 percent catch rate we are looking at least six catches most weeks.

San Francisco’s defense has not been as dominant in 2013 as their reputation indicates they should be. In particular, they have struggled with pass-catching backs like Sproles at times this year despite not facing many similar players. The best comparison I could find was Andre Ellington ’s 36 rushing yards and seven catches for 56 yards and a touchdown earlier this year. That was more than the 4.2 receptions, 36.4 yards and 0.22 touchdowns they surrender to running backs on average per game.

The 49ers offense has sputtered lately and that will give the Saints every reason to keep the pedal to the floor when given the chance. Because Sproles played during primetime last week, sites like Fanduel did not adjust his bargain basement price. Take advantage this week and spend your cap dollars at other positions.

Projection:

Le’Veon Bell – (RB) Steelers vs. DET

The Steelers don’t have much of a shot to win if they get in a shootout with Detroit. So look for them to give Le’Veon Bell 20 carries or more to take control of the clock. Their offensive line is not the best unit in the league, but teams have had success running the ball against the Lions. Some comparbles to Bell include Eddie Lacy (23 carries for 99 yards with 63 yards after contact and four forced missed tackles) and Alfred Morris (15 carries for 73 yards and a touchdown with three forced missed tackles). For the season, the Lions allow runners to average 18.7 carries for 79.8 yards (47.1 after contact) and 0.55 touchdowns and three forced missed tackles.

I would not feel comfortable with Bell as my top running back choice this week but as a secondary option he should have no problem hitting value in a GPP.

Projection:

Cecil Shorts – (WR) Jaguars vs. ARI

Shorts has been limited in practice this week with a groin injury but it appears it is just cautionary for the Jaguars primary receiver. He had a down week last week with just two catches (on four targets) for 42 yards in Jacksonville’s first win of the season. Combine the injury with the poor box score last week and you have a good contrarian pick for Week 11. Without Blackmon to content with, Shorts has been targeted on 28 percent of his pass routes run. And when Jacksonville is playing from behind as often as they do – that creates plenty of garbage time opportunities against soft prevent defenses.

The matchup on paper does not look good with Patrick Peterson looming. Except we know that Peterson has only shadowed a single wide receiver in five of the teams nine games and only draws the WR1 for the opposing team 50 percent of the time. He does draw the WR2 on 34 percent of his snaps. For as great as Peterson is advertised to be, he has still allowed 373 yards receiving and five touchdowns this year. With the Jaguars moving Shorts around the formation, he is just as likely to see Peterson in coverage as he is Jerraud Powers.

Shorts has a nice discount across the industry and his matchup with Peterson/Powers is not detrimental.

Projection:

Antonio Brown – (WR) Steelers vs. DET

Antonio Brown doesn’t get much press because he’s not a flashy touchdown scorer but he is as consistent as they come in PPR leagues. His breakout season continues and he is flourishing with a high volume of 9 to 10 targets each week. Most of his targets are in the intermediate range (10.6 aDOT) and they aren’t just throwing him bubble screens.

Detroit’s defensive backs are struggling this year to stop opposing receivers, especially at cornerback:

With Brown spending most of his time lined up out wide on the left, he will see plenty of right cornerbacks Rashean Mathis and Darius Slay. Neither has the speed to cover and stay with Brown in coverage and both allow more than 23 percent of their receiving yards after the catch. As a team, the Lions give up a staggering 196 yards to opposing receivers (57 yards YAC) and 1.2 touchdowns. Brown actually has a good chance to find the end zone this week if he can break off a long play.

Projection:

Eric Decker – (WR) Broncos vs. KC

Decker’s price drop on Fanduel has been surprising but takes advantage of the lowest priced Broncos receiver out of Wes Welker and Demaryius Thomas. His production has tailed off recently but Denver will need all hands on deck in a tough matchup with their division rival at home.

Kansas City has a tough defense on paper but when you dig a little deeper into the metrics you find that they can be thrown on. They have had a few gift matchups against the likes of Henne/Gabbert, Fitzpatrick, Pryor and Jeff Tuel that make their season-long totals look good. When we isolate how they have defended teams with multiple receiving threats with a good quarterback, it looks very different. If we take just the Eagles, Giants, Cowboys and Texans – the vaunted Chiefs’ defensive backs can be beat:

During those four games, the opposing receivers averaged an aDOT of 13.6 yards downfield and 12.5 receptions, 203.5 yards and a touchdown. Because Decker lines up at each receiver spot, he is just as likely to see Flowers (slot), Cooper (LCB) or Smith (RCB).

Even a hobbled Peyton Manning should be able to handle this Kansas City tough on paper. Plugging in Decker into your lineup is the cheapest way to get a share of Manning’s touchdown passes.

Projection:

Jordan Reed – (TE) Redskins at PHI

Jordan Reed has been one of the biggest surprises at tight end this year and his salary across the industry still lags behind his weekly potential. He’s the 1B to Pierre Garcon as the 1A for Robert Griffin’s top targets on offense – an offense that is improving each week. Reed has been targeted on 28 percent of his pass routes run which has equated to at least 7 to 8 targets each week regardless of the matchup. The Shanahan’s are using his position versatility to create mismatches all over the field. He’s lined up in the backfield (16%), slot/out wide (30%) and inline (54%). We can see that when we see how opposing defenses have attempted to defend him by position:

He has been able to easily win against linebackers and safeties and has drawn attention from much smaller corner backs as well.

The Eagles have been stout against opposing tight ends as a whole – though they haven’t faced many of the top threats at the position. In Week 1, they surrendered 5-38 to Reed and 2-22 to Fred Davis and just last week gave up their first touchdown to a tight end when Brandon Bostick caught a pass from Scott Tolzien in Week 10. On a per game basis, they allow 4.9 receptions, 57.9 yards and 0.10 touchdowns to tight ends.

However, Antonio Gates, Jason Witten and Julius Thomas each had success against Philadelphia. That trio averaged 5.3 catches and 71.7 yards. Here is how each Eagles defender fared in those three games:

Reed should easily reach value in one of the highest scoring games of the weekend.

Projection:

Martellus Bennett – (TE) Bears vs. BAL

One of the reasons McCown should have a good week at home against Baltimore is Bennett. While the Ravens will focus heavily on the dynamic duo of Jeffery/Marshall – Bennett will be able to excel as the check down option and red zone threat. He has four touchdowns on just seven red zone targets and has gained almost six yards after each catch.

Baltimore has tightened up on tight ends since they allowed Julius Thomas to catch five passes for 110 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1 and Jordan Cameron to catch five passes for 95 yards a week later. Of course, Cameron caught just one pass for four yards in Week 9 in the rematch in Baltimore. One a per game basis, the Ravens have allowed 3.5 catches for 56.7 yards and 0.55 touchdowns.
Bennett makes a good pairing with McCown in a GPP and should reach value with a salary outside the top 12 at the position.

Projection: