Fontaine's Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 4

by Bryan Fontaine (rookieblitz) Last Updated 2013-09-29 09:36:18

Bryan Fontaine (BryanFontaine on RotoGrinders) is regarded as one of the best dynasty minds in the business. He is the Dynasty Editor and a Senior Writer for PFF Fantasy at ProFootballFocus.

Each week I will recommend several players that are primed for big performances when you look deeper at the numbers and trends. With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football, simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone won’t give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups.

Note: Hit the ($) icon for player prices this week

Jimmy Graham (TE) – Saints vs. MIA

To put Graham’s early season dominance into perspective, he is on pace for 122 receptions, 1,909 yards and 21 touchdowns or 8/119/1 on a weekly basis. He is due for some regression to his current pace, but it won’t be this week. The Dolphins are surrendering 6 rec./71 yards/1 TD to opposing tight ends through three games. The raw numbers match up well when we dig into the advanced data. Here is how the Miami defenders have fared so far:

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On quick glance we see that the Dolphins are trying to cover the tight end with their linebacking corps with mixed results. That is where the majority of the reception totals are coming from. Advantage Graham in this area. The touchdowns have all been from inside the Dolphins’ 7-yard line with Cameron (Misi), Fleener (Jones) and Toilolo (Wilson). Another advantage to Graham.

It won’t matter who the Dolphins decide to cover him with. Through three games most teams have attempted to cover Graham with a defensive back with poor results:

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The Dolphins’ linebackers will struggle even worse because of their blitzing tendencies. This has been a long way of saying that Graham is worth paying top dollar for this weekend. Find a way to squeeze his salary in and enjoy the results.

Robert Griffin III (QB) – Redskins at OAK

Griffin III has been living on the edge each week this season. In his effort to come back from his ACL injury, RGIII has become the new garbage time king taking the mantle from Carson Palmer. Here are his splits between the first three quarters versus the fourth quarter:

His defense has not done him any favors and he is running much less too. His scramble rate per drop back is 5.2 percent (down from 9 percent last year) and his designed run ratio is 46 percent (down from 64 percent). Luckily for fantasy owners his designed runs are increasing each week as he improves from his time away.

This is a plus matchup for Griffin that regardless of game script – he’ll have a big day. The Oakland defense was just torched by Denver and if for some reason the Washington defense doesn’t show up again on the road, we know Griffin can put up points in a hurry.

Ben Roethlisberger (QB) – Steelers at MIN (London)

The struggles of the Pittsburgh Steelers are actually a blessing for fantasy football. Instead of becoming a run-first team again, Big Ben has been forced to air it out more often than the coaching staff would like. The team is sorely lacking the presence of Mike Wallace and the offensive line is off to their usual poor start allowing 11 sacks.

The Vikings secondary has been brutal thus far with poor performances against Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler and Brian Hoyer of all people. Hoyer’s 321 yards and three touchdown performance is the most encouraging of the three because Roethlisberger could run laps around him as a passer. It is worth noting that Roethlisberger has a higher average depth of throw (10.9 aDOT) without Wallace than with him.

Roethlisberger has a high ceiling than most value plays this week but reserve caution in constructing your lineup around him. We are talking about the new-look Steelers after all.

Bilal Powell (RB) – Jets at TEN

You are probably going to see Powell on a lot of tournament rosters this weekend because of his salary on most sites. The problem is that you almost need to use Powell because he’s a strong candidate for the top-10 this week. He has the backfield to himself with Ivory’s injury struggles and the Titans present a decent matchup.

Tennessee has allowed 303 yards rushing (4.3 YPC) to running backs in three games. The issue is that over 70 percent of those yards have come after first contact and includes 17 missed tackles. Powell is an average talent but should see a net gain in his rushing yardage because his yards after contact only accounts for 50 percent of his total rushing yardage. He could see a 20 percent increase in production just because of some missed tackles.

DeMarco Murray (RB) – Cowboys at SD

Murray is a favorite around these parts because he is criminally undervalued. He showed it last week with 26 attempts for 175 yards and a touchdown. He threw in seven tackles avoided for good measure in addition to three catches for 28 yards.

San Diego has been semi-stout against the run with 391 yards allowed to running backs (3.9 YPC) but this one has the makings of another strong Murray performance – especially with Miles Austin on the mend.

Jamaal Charles (RB) – Chiefs vs. NYG

The Giants have been one of the biggest disappointments through three weeks, but that means it’s the perfect time to use a stud running back like Charles in this matchup. The Giants are allowing 33/130/1 TD and 5/30 to opposing running backs.

Charles will be able to do even more damage than that catching the football based on how much Alex Smith is leaning on him in the passing game. His target rate per pass route run of 29 percent is one of the highest among all running backs and he is leading all running backs in targets over the likes of Matt Forte, Danny Woodhead and Darren Sproles.

Charles is worth the price tag this week as the potential top-scoring running back in Week 4.

Emmanuel Sanders (WR) – Steelers at MIN (London)

Sanders is a player that should find a way into your lineup this week if you stack at other positions. He is one of the better values when you consider his salary, expected work load and plus matchup. He is leading the Steelers in targets and most will immediately consider Antonio Brown first because of his breakout performance on Sunday night in a comeback bid.

In a common theme week after week, we need to target the suspect Vikings secondary. My recommendation of Josh Gordon blew up last week and it’s been a three week trend of big wide receiver performances. On average, they are allowing 15/177/1 TD to wide receivers.

Expect a steady dose of receptions from Sanders at a low price with the potential for a big play paired up with Roethlisberger.

Eric Decker (WR) – Broncos vs. PHI

Manning is going to have a field day against the poor Eagles’ secondary so we need to find a way to get some value plays in your lineup making Decker your man. After a subpar Week 1, Decker has returned to form and is still undervalued on sites like FanDuel based on his expected production.

A few things working in Decker’s favor this week is the Broncos will attempt to dominate the time of possession battle with Chip Kelly’s breakneck pace. The Broncos are averaging 71 offensive plays through three games after averaging 66 per game last year. For all the hype the Eagles’ offense has received – they are only averaging 66 plays per game themselves.

The extra plays have allowed Decker’s targets per game to increase from 9.3 from 7.5 last year without a huge shift in offensive philosophy.

It goes without saying the Eagles defense is one of the worst in the league. They have allowed a 67 percent completion percentage to the likes of RGIII, Philip Rivers and Alex Smith with 340 passing yards per game.
Let’s keep it simple, get Decker in your lineup.

Pierre Garcon (WR) – Redskins at OAK

As I mentioned above with RGIII, the Redskins have a plus matchup at Oakland. Garcon is having a breakout season even if most of his production is coming in the fourth quarter. He is second among all wide receivers with 11.3 targets per game. The opportunity is there week in and week out because of his heavy volume of targets.

Garcon does play about 20 percent of his targets in the slot, but it’s likely that rookie D.J. Hayden will shadow him on the outside after drawing assignments for Cecil Shorts and Demaryius Thomas in recent weeks. The rookie is allowing completions at a 76 percent clip with 13 receptions for 152 yards in three games. Thomas had four grabs on four targets for 44 yards with Hayden in coverage last week. Mike Jenkins also gave up four receptions on four targets last week for 116 yards, including 58 after the catch.

Torrey Smith (WR) – Ravens at BUF

The knock on Torrey Smith entering this year was that he was a one-trick (9 route) pony. He’s quietly put those concerns to rest with an expanded route tree. His average depth of target (aDOT) has dropped from 18.6 yards to 14.1 yards this year – while his target rate has increased dramatically with a higher catch percentage. You might want to write off Smith because of the lack of touchdowns through three games, but he hasn’t had the opportunity to score. He has just one red zone target on the season.

Smith gets a juicy matchup in Buffalo this week. The Bills have allowed plenty of yards to opposing wide receivers without Stephon Gilmore in the lineup:

Look for Smith to get his first touchdown this week on a big play with the Bills allowing 18.5 yards per reception to outside receivers. Smith has lined up out wide on 91 percent of his offensive snaps this year.

Brandon Pettigrew (TE) – Lions vs. CHI

This one is a bit of a reach because Pettigrew’s metrics don’t necessarily predict a strong performance. He only has 10 percent of Stafford’s targets so far for a measly 5 catches for 38 yards. However, the team just lost Nate Burleson due to injury and someone needs to pick up the slack.

The Bears have surrendered 18 receptions (on 24 targets) for 207 yards a touchdown through three games to opposing tight ends. Although rookie Joseph Fauria has two touchdowns to Pettigrew’s none – Fauria is only a part time player on passing downs while Pettigrew is playing nearly every offensive snap.

If you want to stack your lineup elsewhere and bypass paying a top TE salary, Pettigrew is your man this week with a chance at some sneaky points.