From DFS to DraftKings Sportsbook in New Jersey: Monday, October 1st
Online sports betting is now a very real and completely legal process in New Jersey. As laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to succeed in a sports betting endeavor.
Please note that I do not profess to be good at this (as the current record now attests). Follow along at your own peril.
Today’s Plays
(Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)
Check back later for NFL thoughts.
MLB
Brewers +118(FD) 1 unit to win 2.2 W +1.18
Brewers 3.5o 1.25 units to win 2.25 L -1.25
NFL
Broncos +3.5 (-110) (BS) 1.1 units to win 2.1
5:15 ET Update
Split the side and total at Wrigley with a small loss on the vig. Tonight, while I certainly respect what the Kansas City offense is done, you wonder if they’ll be able to keep up that pace in Denver. As mentioned earlier today (below), I’m a sucker for a divisional home dog in prime time and maybe its a good thing that it’s not easy to pull the trigger on the Broncos here. I’ve been wavering between the underdog or no play at all, but reverse line movement supports the play and if I am playing the game, it should probably be now with the line on the move downward. While most other sites have moved the line or the vig, BetStars still has it at +3.5 (-110).
Broncos +3.5 (-110) (BS) 1.1 units to win 2.1
3:30 ET Update
As chronicled via Twitter, live betting attempts for the game at Wrigley were unfruitful. The sites weren’t offering the batter by batter approach I was hoping for. The game is currently tied in the seventh with the initial two plays above still live. In the later game, the Dodgers are ranging from a -178 to -188 favorite, which is just too much against a pitcher of Marquez’s caliber. I do think their lineup depth and potency is the only real advantage in this game as starting pitching and bullpen both match up very closely. I do have a lean towards the under at seven, but with a vig at -120, not strong enough to officially play. No play for now, but perhaps this is a spot where I’ll find a live bet that will work for one side or the other once we get a feel for the game. Back one more time with NFL thoughts.
Friday’s Results:
MLB
Indians/Royals 8.5u (-126) (FD) 1.26 units to win 2.26 L -1.26 units
Yankees to win by two runs or more (+200) (FD – DOB) 1 unit to win 3 units W +2 units
Three team parlay: Brewers, Rockies, Dodgers +210 (SH) 1 unit to win 3.1 W +2.1 units
A’s 4.5o (-117) (SH) 1.17 units to win 2.17 W +1 unit
CFB
UCLA/Colorado 58.5 Under (-114) (SH) 1.14 units to win 2.14 W +1
UCLA +9.5 (-110) (SH) 1.1 units to win 2.1 L -1.1
MLB
Day Total 3-1 +3.84 units
Grand Total 88-95-1 +3.78 units
Sides 44-57 -5.6 units
Totals 37-29-1 +5.03 units
Parlays 4-6 +0.48 units
Props 5-4 +3.9 units
NFL
Day Total
Grand Total 5-3 +2.74 units
Spread 2-0 +2 unit
Moneyline 2-0 +2.05 unit
Totals 1-1 -0.06 unit
Parlays 0-1 -1 unit
Props 0-1 -0.25 units
CFB
Day Total 1-1 -0.1 units
Grand Total 5-5 -0.5 units
Spread 2-3 -1.3 units
Totals 3-2 +0.8 units
Friday’s Recap
What an amazing end to the regular baseball season or at least the last published plays from Friday.
The Yankees jumped out to an 8-0 lead and then loaded the bases in the ninth up by five when it took Zach Britton 30 pitches to throw 12 strikes. That was a lot closer than it should have been for two runs when the Yankees led by a large margin the entire way.
The Indians went into the seventh inning with a 1-0 lead and came out of it with a 10-0 one, but that’s okay because the A’s received seven walks, but did not score a run until the eighth inning, when they scored five. A little run bad and then a little run good.
Three team parlay with three of the four NL teams playing tie-breaking games today is good to finally put the record for MLB parlays in profit.
The college football game was a split.
Weekend recap
Not recorded here, college football Saturday was another small loser (four units) and at this point it seems to be something I spend more effort on than it’s worth. The games are just incredibly frustrating to watch. Flags are flying all over the place and these are 18-22 year old kids for the most part. Thinking of my own mentality at that age, I can’t believe I’m placing money on events where they control the outcome. The actual college deficit at this point is near -16 units.
But that’s okay because the NFL profit is now nearing 45 units. A lot of free promo money and some two unit bets each week are involved. DraftKings offered risk free bets up to $100 on every NFL favorite at -200 or better on the moneyline yesterday. I took advantage and won on three of the four (Patriots, Packers, Chargers), while FanDuel also offered boosted odds of +125 on a three team moneyline parlay including those three teams.
Even without the odds boost and risk free bets, Sunday was a very profitable day (near 15 units). The Bears were my only double unit bet, though I won five bets on the Bengals and Falcons, including the Over (52), the Bengals with the spread (+3.5) and on the moneyline (+168) and then Andy Dalton to go over both 17.5 DK points and 265 passing yards.
The last big event of the day was moneyline Round Robin parlay sitting at 4-0 and needing just the Giants to win big, but 4-1 with even money (Houston) and dog (Cincinnati) participants still paid out a three unit profit.
That said, I do not have a Monday Night football lean yet, but will be back later on today if I do. One thing I can say ahead of time is that I’m usually a sucker for prime time divisional home dogs.
Monday’s action and Thoughts
The Brewers have just announced Jhoulys Chacin as their starter today and I had honestly hoped they were planning on bullpening it. Starting pitching props are not really an option today because although, neither game is a true do or die game, nobody wants to end up in a wild card game, so they are essentially must win games.
I’d assume the starting pitchers at Wrigley would have the shortest leashes because they are the inferior pitchers today. Both have platoon split issues and are facing lineups that can take advantage of those issues. Kevin’s forecast does not suggest weather will impact either game.
In the first game, I like the Brewers. The simple reason why is the bullpen. The Brewers have a bullpen 2.36 FIP and 27.6 K-BB% over the last 30 days, both easily best in the majors. The Cubs have a 4.01 FIP and 9.6 K-BB%. With both teams owning lineups which can do damage against each team’s starting pitcher, the managers should be smart enough to give them a quick hook if that ends up the case. The advantage is strongly with Milwaukee at that point.
While I also like the Dodgers at home more due to their lineup advantage, which is basically just as large as the bullpen advantage the Brewers own, starting pitching and bullpens are about equal in the latter game. The home team is a sizable favorite in that game against a pitcher I’m not completely comfortable laying that kind of number against. Both pitchers really broke out in the second half and it’s going to be a fun game to watch.
Brewers +118(FD) 1 unit to win 2.2
Brewers 3.5o 1.25 units to win 2.25
Live Betting
Last night’s experiment in live betting (NFL) was, unfortunately, very frustrating. Issues included failing geolocation software and constantly being logged out. It’s very difficult to line shop and live bet at the same time. At one point, one of the books kept informing me the length of the session, implying there might be some sort of problem, even though I’d only make one wager (Pittsburgh +250) the entire time.
Never the less, I’m going to try it out again today with this afternoon’s MLB games, but generally keep it to one or two sites at a time. Of course, it would be impossible to keep up in real time with updates here, but if anyone is interested, I’ll probably attempt to tweet out all my live plays (@FreelanceBBall). I’ll probably start with DraftKings and then maybe FanDuel for the later game.
Sharp Side News
Don’t forget, the SharpSide app (@SharpSideApp) is officially launched and available on iOS with this weekend’s free contests concluding tonight. There’s still $300 to give away!
RotoGrinders has launched Sharp Side, a new sports betting app. Track plays and win great prizes right now! Many more tools and features are to come.