From DFS to DraftKings Sportsbook in New Jersey: Tuesday, September 4th
The DraftKings Sportsbook is now a very real and completely legal entity in New Jersey. As originally laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to success in a sports betting endeavor.
Please note that I do not profess to be good at this (as the current record now attests). Follow along at your own peril.
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Today’s Plays (Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)
Any additional plays will be released via Twitter tonight (@FreelanceBBall)
Angels/Rangers 9 Under (-104) 1.03 units to win 2.03
Twins/Astros 7.5 Under (-112) 1.11 units to win 2.11
Marlins +123 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.23
Braves +116 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.16
Parlay: White Sox and Rockies +143 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.43
Twins +255 (SH) 0.5 units to win 1.78
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7:30 ET Update
I think the right way to go here is with Lucas Giolito, but I’m slightly uncomfortable with the price. Consequently, I believe the Rockies may be under-priced at home. German Marquez has been great. I also think the Astros are over-valued right now. The Twins are throwing the bullpen at them, which is really somewhat similar to a number three or four starter. It’s not terrible. The Astros are -300 and seem to be getting all the bets, but the line hasn’t moved. It’s frozen. Only a half unit on this one and, once again, the more favorable lines come from Sugar House.
This is the last update here tonight. Any additional plays will be released via Twitter tonight (@FreelanceBBall)
Parlay: White Sox and Rockies +143 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.43
Twins +255 (SH) 0.5 units to win 1.78
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6:45 ET Update
Two additional early game plays, both NL East dogs. The starters in Miami are separated by 0.01 by SIERA. Trevor Richards actually has a strong reverse split. The Phillies have two quality RHBs in the lineup. I think this game is a toss-up and will take the home dog in what I expect should be a low scoring game, but don’t love the number at seven runs. I’ve been wavering on the Braves for most the day. Neither pitcher has been pitching all that well. Both are decent pitchers though and Newcomb handles RHBs better than Porcello handles LHBs. I’ve started to see some reverse line movement on this game, which made me more confident. Unsurprisingly, as we’ve seen with every side played over the last two days, Sugar House has the more favorable lines.
I also have a strong lean towards the under in Pittsburgh, but am not going to act on it because I don’t trust the visiting bullpen at all.
At least one more update prior to 8pm games.
Marlins +123 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.23
Braves +116 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.16
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5:30 ET Update
The Rangers scored just one run against a pitcher making his first start since March last night. Tonight, there’s two pretty decent lefties going in Texas. The Rangers’ don’t have a lineup equipped to beat up on southpaws. The Angels don’t have a lineup equipped for much of anything behind Mike Trout. Across the state, you have Justin Verlander in a closed dome with a favorable umpire in the most negative run environment in baseball against a depleted Minnesota lineup, while the Twins will be bullpening against a good, but not great Houston lineup this year. The Astros have just a 103 team wRC+ at home and vs RHP this year. Another update in about an hour.
Angels/Rangers 9 Under (-104) 1.03 units to win 2.03
Twins/Astros 7.5 Under (-112) 1.11 units to win 2.11
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4:45 ET Update
This is a tough slate. I’m not even intentionally attempting to narrow down too much, but not much is jumping out. So far, I have interest in one dog and several totals (all on the Under side, two of them in the state of Texas). One side I was surprised to like as much as I did (White Sox) are more well liked than the books than I had expected as well (-167), so not so much a surprise for them. Another update before 6pm, once all except west coast lineups are out. No official plays as of yet.
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Yesterday’s recap:
Cardinals/Nationals 7.5 Under (-125) 1.25 units to win 2.25 W +1
Reds +120 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.20 L – 1
Cubs/Brewers 8.5 Over (-121) 1.2 units to win 2.2 L – 1.2
Brewers +107 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.07 W +1.07
Tigers +108 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.08 L – 1
Yankees/A’s 8 Under (-114) 1.14 units to win 2.14 L – 1.14
Yankees +102 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.02 L – 1
Rangers -122 (SH) 1.22 units to win 2.22 L – 1.22
Padres/Diamondbacks 8.5 Under (+102) 1 unit to win 2.02 W +1.02
Day Total 3-6 -3.47 units
Grand Total 39-41-1 +0.48 units
Sides 20-21 +3.86 units
Totals 20-19-1 -0.99 units
Parlays 1-3 -2.39 units
CFB
Day Total
Grand Total 1-2 -1.2 units
Spread 0-2 -2.2 units
Totals 1-0 +1 unit
You make one little joke about a winning streak and everything goes to hell. We all knew it wasn’t going to last forever though and that was probably cemented by increasing unit sizing yesterday (not reflected here) due to the bankroll increase.
The early winner was an under that scored three runs in the first and then went to extra innings with two in the bottom of the ninth (final 4-3). The Reds were never in it. The Tigers had a ninth inning lead and quickly blew it by allowing three in the inning. Brewers blow a lead in the eighth, then walk it off in the ninth, but also fail to cash the over. The Yankees didn’t look ready to play a baseball game early on the west coast on Monday.
The short late slate featured a split and more frustration. The favorite losing in Texas made it a loss and while the Rangers scoring a single run at home against a pitcher who hasn’t started since April is not ideal, it was really the inability to pull the trigger on a game that would have more than cut the deficit on the day in half that hurts more. Four teams projected by Vegas to score five or more runs last night scored a combined eight.
This quote from yesterday: “There’s some interest with the way the line has moved in Arizona, but I’m not brave enough to put my money behind “(player-popup #bryan-mitchell)Bryan Mitchell”:/players/bryan-mitchell-16046.”
One the one hand, the bet and money movement indicators that have been used here have led to a profit so far, even if I’m still relearning how to interpret them. On the other hand, those indicators did not fare well on Monday. And for those with a third hand, how the hell could anyone see legitimate reasons other than bet/money percentages to back the Padres in that spot?
It was bound to happen sooner or later though. You can’t win every day. Every indicator used took a beating as well as research and own intuition. Only good news is that line shopping allowed for better lines.
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It’s not something that’s done as a personal choice, but as anyone who’s followed knows, there have been a lot of plays. Are there too many? Is it necessary to cut down to remain profitable?
While MLB has up to a staggering 15 games per day, several times per week, more games than any other sport by a wide margin, I’ve rarely seen a successful professional bettor giving out nine games per day. If this is a problem, it means that my filters aren’t exclusive enough, but what’s the alternative when the triggers and indicators that are being utilized are kicking in on so many plays?
Using logic and intuition is probably part of the solution, but how does one avoid their own biases? An example besides that San Diego play last night would be a team that’s burned you several times in a row. Is there something wrong with the filter, you start to wonder, or is there something wrong with you if you now begin to cherry pick it.
The problem is, if I’m going to play every game with reverse line movement, we’re talking about a lot of sides and totals, more than you would expect. And that’s before even getting to the games I’ve handicapped myself without the benefit of even looking at the lines until I’ve come up with my own estimation or small expected range.
I don’t think the answer is to blindly cut down on games just for the benefit of doing so, but perhaps additional scrutiny is required. Perhaps I’m also over-analyzing this, as one often does after a particularly bad day. One thing is for sure though, a large number of selections certainly offers an easy setup for those potential disaster days, though I’m not sure the goal is necessarily to avoid those if the overall process is sound.