From DFS to SugarHouse Sportsbook in New Jersey: Friday, September 28th
Online sports betting is now a very real and completely legal process in New Jersey. As laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to succeed in a sports betting endeavor.
Please note that I do not profess to be good at this (as the current record now attests). Follow along at your own peril.
Today’s Plays
(Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)
Check back later once lineups start to roll out for updates.
MLB
Indians/Royals 8.5u (-126) (FD) 1.26 units to win 2.26
Yankees to win by two runs or more (+200) (FD – DOB) 1 unit to win 3 units
Three team parlay: Brewers, Rockies, Dodgers +210 (SH) 1 unit to win 3.1
A’s 4.5o (-117) (SH) 1.17 units to win 2.17
CFB
UCLA/Colorado 58.5 Under (-114) (SH) 1.14 units to win 2.14
UCLA +9.5 (-110) (SH) 1.1 units to win 2.1
7 PM ET Update
Two more plays for tonight. I mentioned earlier, hooking up the Brewers and Rockies with large moneylines in a parlay. This is pretty much self-explanatory. Both teams are playing well and still playing for something. I’m also going to add the third NL team in that mix tonight.
The Dodgers probably do need an explanation after losing their last two in Arizona. In the first game, they put eight runners on base against Matt Koch in just over four innings, he stranded them all. The next day, they hit rockets against Zack Greinke, but couldn’t score runs. I posted the Statcast game feed link yesterday. It was astonishing.
Tonight, much is being made about Madison Bumgarner being pushed back to help knock the Dodgers out of the playoffs. Great story, but he has a .381 xwOBA over the last month. His xwOBA for the season is 50 points higher than his actual wOBA against RHBs. The Giants may be doing the Dodgers a favor.
Lastly, the A’s are pulling some silly stunt with their pitching that has gotten them pulled off the board at FanDuel and BetStars. It’s going to be the same guys in a different order, so I don’t understand why. What I like is the team total for the A’s. They hit the ball hard. Jaime Barria allows a lot of hard contact and has a reverse split. The A’s have RHBs who hit the ball hard against RHP.
It was not intentional that we’re playing just about all meaningful games tonight. It just worked out that way, aside from the early total.
Three team parlay: Brewers, Rockies, Dodgers +210 (SH) 1 unit to win 3.1
A’s 4.5o (-117) (SH) 1.17 units to win 2.17
6:35 ET Update
Another quick update to note that I see UCLA down to +8 in some places now, but was able to still pick them up at +9.5 on Sugar House. It’s now down to +8.5 on Sugar House even as I write this, while the under we got 58.5 this morning is now down to 57 as well.
UCLA +9.5 (-110) (SH) 1.1 units to win 2.1
6:30 ET Update
I’m officially playing the Daily Odds Boost on the Yankees winning by at least two runs (+200) and will mark it as a Prop for record keeping.
There will be one more update with a few more plays soon, but nothing else starting prior to 8pm ET.
Yankees to win by two runs or more (+200) (FD – DOB) 1 unit to win 3 units
5:30 ET Update
We’re only waiting on lineups from the west coast and game two in Minnesota right now. There don’t look to be any weather issues other than cooler temperatures and some winds blowing in that were mentioned this morning, causing the early jump on the total in Kansas City.
I’ve gone through all the individual pitcher props and J.A. Happ is the only one of seven pitchers I have even coming close to his total of six tonight. It pains me to pass on those for the second night in a row.
Friday is an odd slate. Aside from trying to decipher the motivations of teams at this point and considering the cooler whether when analyzing totals, I find myself liking more favorites than dogs tonight and also find those lines climbing out of ranges I’m comfortable with. I’m considering hooking the Rockies up with the Brewers in a two team parlay, but with few other leans on the board, at least for early affairs, I’m thinking even more strongly about the FanDuel Daily Odds boost (Yankees -1.5 runs +200). The odds were boosted from +150 to +200 when it was originally offered and while the promotion remains stable, the current line for the Yankees -1.5 runs is +120 on FanDuel,
No official plays yet, but another update is coming before 7 pm ET. It’s likely to be another light MLB night though.
Yesterday’s Results:
MLB
Mets +102 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.02 W +1.02
NFL
Vikings +7 (-106) (SH) -1.05 units to win 2.05 Push
MLB
Day Total 1-0 +1.02
Grand Total 85-94-1 -0.06 units
Sides 44-57 -5.6 units
Totals 36-28-1 +5.29 units
Parlays 3-6 -1.62 units
Props 4-4 +1.9 units
NFL
Day Total
Grand Total 5-3 +2.74 units
Spread 2-0 +2 unit
Moneyline 2-0 +2.05 unit
Totals 1-1 -0.06 unit
Parlays 0-1 -1 unit
Props 0-1 -0.25 units
CFB
Day Total
Grand Total 4-4 -0.4 units
Spread 2-2 -0.2 units
Totals 2-2 -0.2 units
Yesterday’s Recap
The bullpen made it less comfortable than I would have liked for the Mets, but the lone MLB play on Thursday was a win, pulling the overall record to even on a 6-2 run after the ship looked like it may be sinking for a while. Today, we try to finish the regular season in profit.
You get 31 points out of a TD underdog in the NFL and are somehow lucky to get a push.
Weather and Props
It appears that most games will experience cooler temperatures tonight without much of an edge to be found in most places. One potential exception could be in Kansas City with temperatures in the 50’s and a decent wind blowing in from center. We’ve got two fly ball pitchers, one an extreme fly ball pitcher and we also know that this is a meaningless game for Cleveland, who have been resting players. The total is currently on the move downward and there’s a chance it looks even better when lineups come out. Acting on this one early…
Indians/Royals 8.5u (-126) (FD) 1.26 units to win 2.26
There may also be an early update on some afternoon baseball. Both games are showing some early reverse line movement on the dogs. The Cardinals are still fighting for a post-season spot.
The Daily Odds Boost is on the Yankees winning by two or more runs, boosted from +150 to +200. The Yankees are in Boston tonight and still playing for a home wild card game. J.A. Happ starts against Brian Johnson. I don’t normally play run lines. In fact, I haven’t played one yet, but this might be an interesting one to keep an eye on and see where the actual line goes as this prop remains stable.
Stars has moved all their team Odds Boosts parlays over to football for the weekend, but individual pitcher props (including strikeouts) appear for the Pirates & Reds, just J.A. Happ, the Marlins & Mets, which seems an odd choice, and the Nationals & Rockies.
I’m a bit disappointed to not see pitcher props for the arms with the highest strikeout rates on the board (I’d probably be leaning heavily towards Corbin going over anything under 10 against the Padres) or the Giants and Dodgers tonight, although with the Dodgers now trailing in the division, Hyun-Jin Ryu likely has a very short leash tonight.
Early College Football Thoughts
There are a couple of uninteresting college football games tonight (Memphis/Tulane & UCLA/Colorado), the latter with some reverse line movement on the dog and under. I’ve been doing well enough tracking just reverse line movement on totals the past couple of weeks, but have not come across any other interesting information on either of these games yet. SugarHouse still has the total at 58.5, a full point higher than Stars and FanDuel. With the total dropping, I’m going to play that one now too.
UCLA/Colorado 58.5 Under (-114) (SH) 1.14 units to win 2.14
Sharp Side Contest
Officially launched and available in the Apple (iOS) store now, the SharpSide app (@SharpSideApp) and they’re giving away prizes all weekend. Make your picks on the app and win a share of $2,000!
RotoGrinders has launched Sharp Side, a new sports betting app. Track plays and win great prizes right now! Many more tools and features are to come.