2023 Genesis Invitational: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2023-02-15 14:47:25

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting picks for the 2023 Genesis Invitational. Use the PrizePicks promo code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf props today!

Tiger Woods returns to the PGA Tour at his event at Riviera Country Club. Almost every member of the qualified PGA members in the top 100 of the OWGR will tee it up at the Genesis Invitational this weekend. Can Tiger contend? Will he make the cut? In what might be the most stacked field of the golf season, 133 golfers will be given a true test to make the weekend. Give our Genesis Invitational Betting Preview a read prior to sifting through this week’s golf betting picks.

Genesis Invitational at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – February 14th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 40/1 or better.

2023 Genesis Invitational: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week

• Course: Riviera CC
• Date: February 14 – 17
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,322
• Greens: Poa

Key Statistics

• SG: Approach
• SG: OTT/Good Drives
• P4: 450-500
• SG: ARG
• Proximity 150-175 yards

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Will Zalatoris +4000 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Will Zalatoris has a penchant for competing in the strongest fields in golf. In his last two starts at the Genesis Invitational, Zalatoris boasts two top-30 finishes. After a missed cut at the Farmer’s, Zalatoris took the week off at Phoenix. Instead, he opted to prepare for the next elevated event on the tour schedule.

Zalatoris is an approach savant. For that reason, he ranks 3rd in the field in strokes gained on Par 4: 450-500. Riviera CC commands excellent ball-striking and an excellent game off-the-tee. Zalatoris ranks fifth in the field in SG: OTT but hasn’t gained at this event yet. I don’t suspect this will continue.

For me, placing an outright bet on Willy Z at 40/1 is going to be a luxury we won’t get accustomed to. In most fields, we will be paying for half the price. While the top of the board is very likely to win this event, I would prefer to spend a little less to get what I suspect is the same amount of upside. We can pay for a few golfers in this range instead of one up top.

So, we are going to open with a half-unit on Will Zalatoris at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Hideki Matsuyama +5000 (PointsBet)

Make it stop! I know the fields at the elevated events are the strongest. However, how can we possibly keep getting Hideki Matsuyama at these odds? Instead of spending up for Jon Rahm or Rory, I can start my card with Will Zalatoris and Hideki Matsuyama? Yes, please.

Matsuyama has three top tens at the Genesis Invitational over the years and has shown the requisite creativity to have success at challenging courses like Riviera Country Club. His short game at Augusta National propelled him to victory. In his three top-ten performances at Riviera, Hideki gained more than 3 strokes around the green.

Matsuyama is a phenomenal driver of the golf ball but continues to fall under the radar because of field strength. I am happy to put 0.4 units on him at PointsBet. Matsuyama is also under strong consideration for this week’s one-and-done pick as a very likely low owned play.

Matthew Fitzpatrick +4000 (BetMGM)

Another mid-range golfer with plenty of potential to win in a strong field, Matt Fitzpatrick takes our third slot. Coming off of a made cut at a stacked Phoenix Open field, Fitzpatrick brings success at Riviera Country Club with him to this elevated event.

With a 6th and 30th place finish, Matt Fitzpatrick has shown form at Riviera. His ability to grind out pars and avoid bogeys places him squarely in play as yet another mid-range value. Fitzpatrick stood alone at a very challenging U.S. Open in 2022 when most players struggled to stay afloat. Riviera is a tough test and Fitzpatrick has a history of staying attached to the top of the leaderboard now matter how difficult the course is.

Ranking 13th in SG: OTT, Fitzpatrick’s recent form isn’t ideal but I am willing to lean on his longer-term history given the price. We happily throw a half-unit on him at BetMGM. Fitzpatrick is another contender for one-and-done at similarly likely low ownership.

Shane Lowry +11000 (PointsBet)

This is purely a price play. Shane Lowry has not shown much recently as he just missed the cut at the WM Phoenix Open. That said, I choose to pay a ridiculously cheap price for successful track record at golf’s toughest tests.

Lowry missed the cut in his only appearance at Riviera but has won at golf’s toughest courses in golf’s toughest fields. He was in excellent form up until giving away the Honda last season to Sepp Straka. Looking to regain that form ahead of major season, Lowry ranks in the top 20 in both SG: App and Bogey Avoidance while ranking in the top 30 in Good Drives.

110/1 feels like a pretty wild price for Shane. We happily place 0.2 units on him at PointsBet.

2023 Genesis Invitational Betting Card

Genesis Invitational Total Units in Play – 1.6

2023 Net Units: -10.85

Good luck with all of your golf betting picks and DFS lineups this week.

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

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