Primetime Parlay: Giants vs. 49ers Same Game Parlay Picks
Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped us create a variety of fun same-game parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting sites. Along with the simulation, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same-game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a Thursday Night Football same-game parlay for the New York Giants versus the San Francisco 49ers.
The Giants travel to San Francisco to square off with the San Francisco 49ers. The Giants come off an illustrious comeback against the Arizona Cardinals. Unfortunately, that was the Cardinals. The task will be very tall for the G-Men as they meet one of the favorites in the NFC without their best offensive player. The 49ers are favored heavily on Thursday Night Football. Can we find an interesting a creative way to make a same-game parlay ticket for what could be a lopsided affair? We’ll start with odds, injuries, and stats before building our parlay.
Giants vs. 49ers Same Game Parlay
At the time of this writing, FanDuel Sportsbook posts a 10.5-point spread in favor of the 49ers. Even with Saquon Barkley, the Giants would have been sizable underdogs on a short week with plenty of travel. After a little movement throughout the week, the game total sits at 43.5 points — the opening number.
Money and tickets are pouring in on the 49ers as SAO reports that 80% of both categories lie on the San Francisco side. That would explain the one-point increase in the line as the week proceeded. As for the total, 72% of money bet on the game rests on the under. I would suspect that sharp bettors do not anticipate many points being scored by the New York side.
Unfortunately for the Giants, we must start with the injury report. Saquon Barkley was ruled out with his ankle injury. As if that was not enough, the Giants will also be without two starting offensive linemen — Andrew Thomas and Ben Bredeson. Against a San Francisco defense that has only allowed 4.5 yards per play this season, Daniel Jones is going to struggle to find time to work. Without his favorite safety valve, this could be a long night. Wan’Dale Robinson is slated to return and might find himself peppered with targets in the short game given the immense pressure likely to face Daniel Jones.
The 49ers are very healthy coming into the contest with only Brandon Aiyuk questionable with a shoulder sprain. The 49ers could sit Aiyuk on a short week as 10.5-point favorites to help the receiver rest his sprain. If Aiyuk misses the game, look for additional work for both Deebo Samuel and George Kittle.
Christian McCaffrey has been a problem for defense thus far in 2023. The veteran playmaker played 100% of the offensive snaps for San Francisco last week. Thus far, the Giants allowed opposing rushing attacks 4.6 yards per attempt. This number might balloon tonight if the 49ers are able to play downhill against the Giant defense.
The game is looking like it should be very one-sided. Barring some big turnovers or huge plays, the Giants look to be playing from behind nearly the entire game against the current favorite to win the NFC (+310 on FanDuel). With a healthy team, the 49ers are going to be a tough matchup for anyone this season.
Let’s see if ParlayIQ can help us build something to sweat tonight for what appears to be a very lopsided contest.
Same Game Parlay Picks for TNF
San Francisco Team Total Over 27.5 (+104)
For reference, the simulations generated by ParlayIQ suggest the 49ers’ moneyline as the top betting option this evening. So, even at a price of -520, ParlayIQ wants us to pay the freight for a 49ers’ victory. I can’t disagree.
With that said, I don’t want to pay that price, especially for a recreational bet. Instead, I think starting with the over on the 49ers’ points is just as fine. We need the 49ers’ to score four touchdowns and given the Giants’ performances this season, this feels very likely. The over on our implied game total is also appealing to ParlayIQ, likely because the 49ers are expected to score so often.
The 49ers have appeared to be a well-oiled machine on offense. The defense will put so much pressure on the New York offense that we can expect some turnovers or, at least, great field position for the home team. We will start here and try to develop a script that makes sense for the 49ers’ offense.
Deebo Samuel Over 14.5 Rushing Yards
ParlayIQ seems to think that Thursday Night will be the Deebo Samuel show. When we select the over on the 49er point total, our simulations expect Deebo to exceed this rushing prop 63% of the time. That is a very comforting number.
When you supplement that projection with Deebo’s 5 carries against the Rams last week, we feel really good about this prop. The days of Samuel presenting lofty rushing projections are over with the presence of Christian McCaffrey. Yet, with no other running back seeing the field, Samuel offers Kyle Shanahan another option in the running game to keep opponents off balance. If Deebo can see 3-4 carries against this defense, this rushing prop will be checked off of our list.
Deebo Samuel Over 55.5 Receiving Yards
Given our previous two selections, ParlayIQ is still bullish on Deebo Samuel in the receiving game. Most likely due to Brandon Aiyuk sitting this contest out, Brock Purdy will have more passes to split between Samuel and Kittle on Thursday night.
The Giants’ defense has given up plenty of offense this season. A matchup with this offense is not likely to buck that trend. While the game is still in the balance, I expect Deebo to be featured primarily with CMC until the 49ers are able to lay off the gas pedal. Our simulations have this over in 55% of the sims with our previous two legs. I’m in.
Isaiah Hodgins Under 30.5 Receiving Yards
Hodgins saw one target in a week one romp against the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas jumped on the Giants early and proceeded to shut out the home team without even the slightest bit of resistance.
In the first game, the Giants were at home, had Saquon Barkley, and didn’t have both offensive linemen out of the lineup. This week, they travel to San Francisco to play a Thursday Night game without any of the aforementioned key pieces. Hodgins could be held without a catch.
We are sweating a long pass play for this prop. Given how much exposure we have to the 49ers, I don’t think picking a Giants’ leg is the worst idea.
Giants vs. 49ers Parlay Odds
- San Francisco Team Total Over 27.5
- Deebo Samuel Over 14.5 Rushing Yards
- Deebo Samuel Over 55.5 Receiving Yards
- Isaiah Hodgins Under 30.5 Receiving Yards
Here is a look at what ParlayIQ suggests for a ticket price on Thursday night:
Here is a look at our ticket on FanDuel Sportsbook:
Lock in Joe’s Pick in 1 Click
PLACE THIS BET ON
Parlay Odds: +1098
Risk: 1/2 unit to win 5.49 units
We could use a win tonight, as we are down 3 units to start the season. The Nick Chubb injury on Monday spoiled what seemed to be a likely winning ticket. Let’s hope we can get very lucky tonight to regain some ground.
Good luck with all of your bets and plays this evening. Share your parlays with me on Twitter. First touchdown scorers? Touchdowns? DFS lineups? Player props? Thanks for reading.