PGA Golf Betting Picks for the 2021 Valspar Championship

by Matt Schmitto (schmitto) Last Updated 2021-04-28 13:29:18

Following a 150-1 winner at the RBC Heritage (Thank you Stewart Cink!), I decided not to push my luck and took a week off from golf betting for the team event that is the Zurich Classic. Turns out I made the right decision because I wouldn’t have bet on Cam Smith and Marc Leishman. However, the PGA Tour returns to Florida for one final stint in the Sunshine State, and I’ll try my best to pick up where I left off with this week’s PGA golf betting picks for the Valspar Championship. Here’s a look at odds across sports betting sites.

Valspar Championship Golf Betting Picks

It’s a huge sports betting week. On top of the Valspar Championship, you can wager on the NFL Draft, which starts Thursday, and the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. So with so much to cover elsewhere, this golf betting article will be slightly different than usual. I’ll mostly cut to the chase and break down favorite Valspar betting picks rather than providing an in-depth course preview and looking back at the tournament’s history. However, if you want more information about the course, consider signing up for RG Premium, especially if you’re playing PGA DFS.

And of course, make sure to check out our 2021 NFL Draft Betting Guide and Kentucky Derby picks.

2021 Valspar PGA Betting Picks

There’s certainly a solid field at Innisbrook Golf Club this week At the top of the board is Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas. My golf bets don’t typically include favorites, but I’m even less scared of the chalk this week. I feel that Johnson and Thomas are looking ahead to the PGA Championship, using Copperhead Golf Course to prepare. While perusing odds, Corey Conners’ name definitely sticks out, but his short price (now 20-1) is too much to swallow. If you find Conners 25-1 or better, take it.

So that’s why my Valspar Championship golf betting picks begin here, with Abraham Ancer, 35-1 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Abraham Ancer +3500 (FanDuel)

Betting 1u to win 35u

Ancer didn’t come through as one of my Masters picks, but I’m not looking away from him now. He did play well enough to finish T26 at Augusta in spite of a pair of 75s. The 30-year-old followed up with T18 at the RBC Heritage, making it four consecutive top-25s in non-major events. Ancer has been a model of consistency, gaining strokes with his approach shots in nine straight tournaments. Aside from recent hiccups with his putter, there’s really nothing Ancer struggles with on the course. I hadn’t been much of oracle this season prior to the Heritage, but I have a feeling Ancer’s first PGA Tour victory is coming soon.

[Bet Ancer 35-1 at FanDuel Sportsbook]

Justin Rose +4000 (PointsBet)

Betting 1/2u to win 20u

It hasn’t been a pretty season for Rose, but the Englishman looked in form during his 7th-place finish at the Masters. Unfortunately, his odds have dropped significantly as a result. However, if Rose is healthy, I don’t mind investing in his price at PointsBet Sportsbook. Rose has proven comfortable at the Valspar Championship in previous years, finishing 5th in 2018 and 8th in 2014. The only concern is that his back might be sore after carrying Henrik Stenson at the Zurich.

[Bet Rose 40-1 at PointsBet]

Doug Ghim +10000 (PointsBet)

Betting 1/2u to win 50u

Doug Ghim isn’t a household name, but he’s picking up steam in golf betting circles. If you follow the game more closely, you might be more familiar with the former top-ranked amateur. Ghim isn’t as threatening as recent amateur prodigies like Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Matthew Wolff and Bryson DeChambeau early on Tour, but Ghim definitely has enough talent to succeed. Amongst the field, the 25-year-old ranks 6th in strokes gained approach and 12th in ball-striking. He’s struggled mightily with his putter, but hitting it pure has led to seven made cuts in 2021, which includes a T5 at The Amex and a T29 at The PLAYERS. Ghim actually entered the final round of The PLAYERS Championship tied for third before closing with a disappointing 78. Ghim will be better prepared to handle that kind of pressure if he finds himself in contention this Sunday.

[Bet Ghim 100-1 at PointsBet]

Gary Woodland +10000 (FOX Bet)

Betting 1/2u to win 50u

Similar to Rose, 2021 hasn’t been kind to Woodland. The 2019 U.S. Open Champion missed three of four cuts in February and March. He’s also been hobbled by health issues, which now appear to be behind him following a T6 at the Valero Texas Open and respectable showing at the Masters. Woodland missed cuts at the Valspar in 2019 and 2018, but I’ll buy Woodland stock more often than not anytime it dips to 100-to-1.

[Bet Woodland 100-1 at FOX Bet]

Keegan Bradley +10000 (FOX Bet)

Betting 1/2u to win 50u

Keegan Bradley is basically Corey Conners before Conners figured out how to putt. Bradley ranks 2nd in strokes gained approach, Conners is 5th. Conners is first in ball-striking, while Bradley is 2nd. Tee-to-green, Bradley is 1st and Conners is 2nd. You get the point. Despite his shaky putter, Bradley has managed to make six cuts in a row. During that span, he has a top-10 plus two top-25s.

[Bet Bradley 100-1 at FOX Bet]

Chase Seiffert +25000 (PointsBet)

Risking 0.10u to win 25u

I’ve been on Seiffert a couple of times recently, and I’m not stopping now that his odds have stretched to 250-1. His best career finish came early this spring at the Honda. There Seiffert proved he was a capable ball-striker, gaining eight strokes on the field with his approach game. It’s a difficult bunch to compete with this week, but I can justify a dart at his price.

[Bet Seiffert 250-1 at PointsBet]

Valspar Championship Golf Betting Card

2021 PGA Golf Betting Results: +1.3 Units

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