PLAYERS Championship — PGA Golf Betting Picks 2025 - RotoGrinders
The 2021 PLAYERS Championship, also known as the “fifth major,” tees off Thursday, March 11. The world’s best golfers convene in Florida at TPC Sawgrass to compete for the biggest purse on the PGA Tour schedule. Will Hideki Matsuyama pick up where he left before the event was canceled in 2020? Here’s a full betting preview of the tournament, with odds and PGA Golf betting picks for the 2021 PLAYERS Championship.
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PLAYERS Championship Betting Picks & Preview
THE PLAYERS Championship — TPC Sawgrass
- TPC Sawgrass
- Par 72
- 7,180Yards
- Field: 154 golfers
- Cut Rule: Top 65 after the first two rounds
THE PLAYERS Championship — Past Winners
| Year | Champion | Runner Up |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Rory McIlroy | Jim Furyk |
| 2018 | Webb Simpson | Schauffelle/Schwartzel/Walker |
| 2017 | Si Woo Kim | Oosthuizen/Poulter |
| 2016 | Jason Day | Kevin Chappell |
| 2015 | Rickie Fowler | Garcia/Kisner |
| 2014 | Martin Kaymer | Jim Furyk |
Course Notes – TPC Sawgrass
The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass is a test for all golfers — bomber, ball-striker, short-game specialist, it doesn’t matter. Odds are they’ll encounter trouble sooner than later.
Just ask the golfers themselves.
“Sawgrass tests everyone, and favors no one.”
Though McIlroy is our defending champion after winning the tournament in 2019, don’t sleep on shorter hitters here. Dye course typically play shorter than other venues and is littered with trouble throughout. And Sawgrass is no different, as water hazards, trees, bunkers — and of course the occasional gator — accompany golfers throughout the 18 holes.
But golfers don’t necessarily have to be sharp off the tee to score.
Of the past 10 PLAYERS Championship winners, only Webb Simpson finished inside the top-10 in driving accuracy, while five of the eight most recent winners have finished in the bottom half of the field in driving accuracy, including McIlory and Jason Day.
It’s worth noting that there is speculation that tournament officials are trying to make Sawgrass play longer than normal.
This will be the fifth PLAYERS Championship start since the iconic venue underwent renovations. The biggest change on the Pete Dye course took place on the greens, rebuilding them with Tiff-Eagle Bermuda grass. Additionally, the renovations converted the 12th hole to a drivable Par 4. The hole is only 298 yards, so it’s reachable almost any golfer who isn’t spooked by the hazard left of the green.
Ultimately, the winner will need to strike the ball well and find a good putting stroke if they want to contend for the championship on Sunday. Greens-in-regulations are obviously crucial, as scores can reach around 15-under. I’ll look at strokes gained ball-striking and strokes gained approach, with a premium on proximity from 200-plus yards as I make PLAYERS Championship golf betting picks for this week.
The Field
The PLAYERS Championship made the appropriate decision to invite back all participants from 2020, which increases the field to 154 golfers. It’ll be that much more difficult to have all six golfers from your PGA DFS lineups make the cut, but it only helps to lengthen the odds for us on the golf betting board at online sportsbooks.
2021 PLAYERS Championship Golf Odds
Odds are referenced herein are from BetMGM Sportsbooks, accurate as of Monday, March 8, 2021, unless stated otherwise.
U.S. Open Odds — 2021 Torrey Pines
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jon Rahm | +1000 |
| Dustin Johnson | +1400 |
| Brooks Koepka | +1600 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +1600 |
| Jordan Spieth | +1800 |
| Rory McIlroy | +1800 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1800 |
| Collin Morikawa | +2000 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +2500 |
| Tony Finau | +2500 |
| Viktor Hovland | +2500 |
| Patrick Reed | +2800 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +3300 |
| Will Zalatoris | +3300 |
| Justin Rose | +4000 |
| Scottie Scheffler | +4000 |
| Webb Simpson | +4000 |
| Daniel Berger | +4000 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | +4000 |
| Tyrell Hatton | +4000 |
| Cam Smith | +5000 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | +5000 |
| Paul Casey | +5000 |
| Phil Mickelson | +5000 |
To no one’s surprise, it’s Dustin Johnson (+1100) who enters the week as the betting favorite to win the PLAYERS Championship, according to oddsmakers. This time last year Johnson carried nearly a price tag of +2700, but Johnson is undoubtedly the best golfer in the world after a dominant fall swing which included three outright wins, plus three runners up, between August and November. Johnson has cooled off with the start of the new year. His most recent finishes included an 11th at the Tournament of Champions, an 8th at The Genesis, and a disappointing 54 at the WGC-Mexico.
Close behind Johnson is another bomber and the Tour’s most recent winner, Bryson DeChambeau (+1400). Rory McIlroy sits tied for third with Jon Rahm if you’re willing to shop golf odds across the online sports betting industry. The Ryder Cup teammates are +1400 at BetMGM but carry +1600 odds at FOX Bet and William Hill.
The betting board is stacked with formidable golfers in the +2000 to +2200 range, including Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland and a former PLAYERS Champion in Webb Simpson.
Tony Finau (+2500) and Jordan Spieth (+2800) are not far behind. Speith, at least temporarily, appears to be returning to form. Finau meanwhile is playing superb golf but is still waiting to close the deal on his first real PGA Tour victory (Puerto Rico Open not included).
Online Sportsbooks Where You Can Make PLAYERS Championship Golf Betting Picks
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2021 PLAYERS Championship Betting Picks
Hideki Matsuyama +4000
I am in fact betting that Hideki will pick up where he left off — that is, leading the PLAYERS Championship after shooting a blistering nine-under 63 in the first and only round last year. That was arguably one of the best rounds of Matsuyama’s career, giving him a two-stroke lead before the tournament’s abrupt cancellation due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
That wasn’t Matsuyama’s first good round at Sawgrass, though. The now 29-year-old has an impressive resume on the difficult track. Here are his most recent finishes dating back to 2014: 8/MC/22/7/17/23. Matsuyama also gained an encouraging 4 strokes on his approach shots last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Risking 1 Unit to Win 40 at BetMGM
Sunjae Im +5000
The South Korean golfer has struggled with his irons as of late, but this is a price I’m willing to take for a golfer who plays aggressively and has winning upside, as he proved last year, on Florida golf courses.
Risking 1 Unit to Win 50 Units at BetMGM
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Abraham Ancer +8000
Ancer has started the year with mixed results — three top-20s, including a top-five finish at The Amex, but also two missed cuts. One of those cuts came during the week of the Texas snowstorm, which disrupted Ancer’s schedule and left him without a single practice round heading into The Genesis. During this stretch, Ancer has gained strokes on his approach shot in each tournament, while losing strokes on the green in four of the five events. The 80-1 longshot played well in his debut at TPC Sawgrass, finishing 12th at the 2019 PLAYERS Championship. Considering he’s as short as +6600 elsewhere, I think we can get behind him as one of our PLAYERS Championship golf betting picks with these odds at FOX Bet.
Risking 1/2 Unit to Win 40 Units at FOX Bet
Justin Rose +15000
Rose was playing well last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational before a combination of back spasms and an ugly quintuple-bogey on the third hole of the third round led to an early WD. The Englishman was five-under up to that point. Last week I wrote that I really like taking Rose when his odds lengthen in the 70-1 range. Well, this week we get 150-1 at FanDuel.
Risking 0.20 Units to Win 30 Units at FanDuel Sportsbook
Keegan Bradley +18000
Bradley is hitting his irons flush, and last week he finally made some putts. The result? His first top-10 finish of the year. Unfortunately a 6-over final round kept him from cashing our 150-1 outright tickets, but he wasn’t the only casualty at Bay Hill on Sunday. In fact, only two golfers shot under par in that final round, so I don’t think his 78 is too alarming. Couple his current form with a 16th and 7th place finish in his most recent appearance at THE PLAYERS Championship, and I think we can justify another small bet on his long golf odds.
Risking 0.20 Units to win 36 Units at FanDuel Sportsbook
2021 PGA Golf Betting Results: -21.6 Units
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