Great Britain vs. Mexico: World Baseball Classic Odds, Picks and Predictions
Great Britain vs. Mexico Odds
| Great Britain ML | +6.5 |
| Mexico ML | -6.5 |
| Over/Under | 12.5 |
| Date | Tue, Mar. 14 |
| Time | 10:00 p.m. |
| TV | FS1 |
Tonight, Great Britain and Mexico will meet in pool play as part of the 2023 World Baseball Classic. Great Britain enters play 1-2 in their first Classic appearance in the history of the event. Mexico, fresh off of a win against the United States, is 1-1, looking to keep their hopes alive of advancing to the next round.
In this matchup, oddsmakers have Mexico priced as heavy 6.5 run favorites on the spread in this matchup, with the over/under on the total set at 12.5 runs.
Great Britain
King of the hill
In 2022, the 21-year-old Joseph King turned in a 3.72 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 19.8% strikeout percentage, and a 5.0% walk rate pitching for California in the Pac 12. Prior to his start against Mexico on Tuesday, King has tossed only 89.1 innings during his collegiate career, with zero experience in the minor leagues or elsewhere on his resume.
Hill will have his work cut out for him in this spot, even against a top-heavy Mexico offense.
What to expect from Great Britain’s offense
Great Britain does not have many recognizable names in their lineup, but that has not stopped them from scoring an abundance of runs through their first three pool play games. Entering play on Tuesday, Great Britain has five players with an .871 OPS or better in this year’s Classic.
Overall, this lineup ranks ninth out of 20 countries in OPS as a team, despite scoring only two runs against the United States in their pool play opener. There are dangerous bats in this lineup, even if they are not MLB household names.
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Mexico
Walker gets the ball
Taijuan Walker will get the nod for Mexico in this contest. In 2022, Walker posted a 3.49 ERA, 3.94 xERA, 3.65 FIP, and a 1.19 WHIP for the New York Mets.
Facing left-handed batters, Walker is primarily a split-finger/fastball pitcher, with his curveball, cutter, sinker, and slider being used infrequently. Against right-handed batters, Walker relies more heavily on his four-seam fastball, with his split-finger and slider each being used at least 23.0% of the time.
Overall, Walker does not have major concerns against either side of the platoon, but he gives up far more hard-contact than is desirable for a starting pitcher. Facing a Great Britain offense that has proven themselves capable of scoring runs, Walker could be in for a challenging outing.
What to expect from Mexico’s lineup
Mexico’s lineup produced only four runs against Colombia in their pool play opener, but exploded for 11 runs against the United States in their most recent contest. After two games played, Mexico ranks 12th out of 20 teams in OPS as a team.
Randy Arozarena has been as good as advertised so far in this tournament, with a .556 batting average and a 1.822 OPS in nine at-bats. Joey Meneses and Austin Barnes each have a .944 OPS or better as well.
The biggest concern for this offense is whether or not they will be able to get help from further down the batting order. Other than their big-three, this lineup is a combined 11-for-54 (.204 batting average).
Great Britain vs. Mexico – Picks & Predictions
Great Britain has made at least two errors in each of their first three pool play games. Simply, poor defense is not a recipe for run prevention. Unsurprisingly, Great Britain has allowed six runs, 18 runs, and five runs in their three games.
Mexico’s offense has been overly reliant on only three hitters during their first two contests, but that is likely to change in this spot, with a matchup against a college-level pitcher to begin this game. Expect Mexico to jump on the board early in this one to start a high-scoring battle.
Take the over.
PICK: Over 12.5 (-115, DraftKings)
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