Hawks vs. Sixers Odds, Game 5 Preview, Picks, & Prediction

by Sloan Piva (SloanPiva) Last Updated 2021-06-16 22:44:57

Hawks vs. Sixers Game 5 Odds

NBA Picks: Hawks vs. Sixers Odds Update

_Updated Wednesday afternoon.

• _*GM 5 Moneyline:* The Sixers are are receiving a large portion of Game 5 moneyline bets head of tip-off Wednesday night. According to ScoresAndOdds.com, 77% of the moneyline betting handle is behind Philadelphia.

• _*GM 5 Spread:* Though sportsbooks are seeing two-way action on this game, the spread has stretched to Sixers -7.5 at some shops, including DraftKings, FanDuel, and PointsBet.

• GM 5 Over/Under: Surprise, surprise. The public is predicting a high-scoring affair in Game 5, with a whopping 70% of money on the Over. Though there’s more cash on the Over, oddsmakers haven’t budged when it comes to the point total, which opened where it currently sits: O/U 224.5.

The Atlanta Hawks stunned the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 4, with a comeback victory at home that evened the semifinals series at 2-2. Now Philly has a chance to turn the tables once more, with a crucial Game 5 back at the Wells Fargo Center. The top-seeded Sixers are currently listed as -6 favorites against the spread at sportsbooks, and a whopping -250 on the moneyline.

Atlanta had trailed by as many as 18 points late in the first half of Game 4, but flipped the script in the second half. Trae Young was once again magnificent, finishing with 25 points, 18 assists, and four boards. Big men John Collins and Clint Capela combined for 26 points and 25 rebounds. Veteran swingman Bogdan Bogdanovic added 22 points and five boards.

Meanwhile, the 76ers were stifled. League MVP candidate Joel Embiid finally had an off night offensively, finishing with just 17 points (although he did have an incredible 21 rebounds). Tobias Harris was the only Philly player to finish the game with 20 points.

Ball security and clutch shot-making were the biggest disparities in Game 4. Atlanta committed just one turnover in the third quarter, and held Philly to 8-of-21 shooting during the frame. Embiid somehow missed all 12 of his second-half field goal attempts, including what would have been the go-ahead layup with 10 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter. Embiid finished a putrid 4-of-20 from the floor.

The Hawks outscored the Sixers 31-20 in the third quarter of Game 4, and outscored Philly by 16 points when Embiid was on the floor in the second half. Simply put, the Hawks MVP dazzled, while the Sixers MVP fizzled.

Hawks vs. Sixers Game 5 Preview

If you are Sixers coach Doc Rivers, or a member of the Philly faithful, you are probably looking at the bright side. Atlanta won the Game 4 turnover battle 4-to-12, and held Embiid to 17 points, and somehow only won by three points in a home game. And the 76ers had a chance to take the lead at the end of the game!

All Philly has to do is show up with extra energy and a short memory in Game 5, and everything should be fine for the No. 1 seed. The Sixers leading trio of Embiid, Harris, and Ben Simmons cannot possibly replicate their abysmal shooting performance from Game 4. The trio made just 17-of-45 shots (37%)—they haven’t been that poor all season, never mind at home.

Philadelphia shot an NBA-best 52.4 percent from the floor at Wells Fargo this season, and finished 33-8 at home and 25-15-1 against the spread at home. The Sixers were also 31-5 as a home favorite, 21-15 ATS as a home favorite, and 15-9-1 ATS after a loss.

Meanwhile, the Hawks were just 19-22 on the road this season, and 19-21-1 ATS on the road. Young has been fantastic regardless of venue, but his supporting cast has struggled from the floor in away games. Atlanta’s shooting, interior defense, and rebounding metrics have also taken a big hit in road tilts.

ATL’s shooting percentage drops 1.4 percent in away games. Its opponent floor percentage increases 1.5 percent in enemy territory, while the Hawks’ rebounding percentage drops 1.7 percent. These may seem like small numbers, but in actuality, they are quite significant.

Hawks-Sixers Picks & Predictions

I don’t expect Embiid to struggle nearly as much in Game 5, and I don’t expect Philly’s defense to allow Atlanta to develop the pace it enjoyed in the second half Monday. The Sixers roster enjoys three All-Defensive selections in Embiid, Simmons, and Matisse Thybulle, which helped rank Philly second in the NBA in opponent turnovers per home game this season (15.8). I would be exasperated to see a dribble-heavy offense like Atlanta’s commit four turnovers in another postseason game, never mind a road game against the East’s top seed.

I’m taking Philly’s -250 moneyline Wednesday, and I might consider betting them against the spread. I’m also quite intrigued by the Sixers’ -200 first-half moneyline, as well as their -3.5 first-half spread. Rivers’ squad has dominated its first halves for most of the playoffs, and the No. 1 seed will be playing with a chip on its shoulder Wednesday. I’m not in love with the points totals, but if I had to pick one way or the other, I’d probably choose the OVER. A 103-100 final is as rare a score for these two teams as a 17-point game on 4-of-20 shooting is for Embiid.

• HALFTIME SCORE PREDICTION: 61-54
• FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: 119-113
• GAME 6 PICK: Sixers -250 ML at BetMGM

Image Credit: Imagn