Hawks vs. Bucks Game 5 Preview, Picks, & Prediction
Hawks vs. Bucks Odds
| Hawks Odds | +2 |
| Bucks Odds | -2 |
| Moneyline | +110/-133 |
| Over/Under | 216.5 |
| Time | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
| Odds accurate as of Saturday at BetMGM | |
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What a blessing and a curse the 2020-21 NBA basketball season has proven to be. On one hand, it has been amazing to have professional hoops back in our lives, basically every day for the better part of a half-year. On the other hand, it has been tragic to see so many star players go down with injuries, a possible byproduct of the short turnaround between seasons, not to mention the lingering effects COVID, COVID protocols, and the bubble had on players.
Alas, the show must go on, and the Eastern Conference Finals matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks has been entertaining throughout, despite injuries to the two most dynamic stars of the series. Atlanta lost emergent superstar Trae Young to a bone bruise in his foot late in Game 3, when he stepped back onto a referee. Milwaukee then lost two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo to a knee injury in Game 4.
Hawks Role Players Soar After Young’s Injury
When stars go down, new storylines present themselves. With ‘Ice Trae’ on the shelf (see what I did there?), hometown hero Lou Williams started his first playoff game in 87 postseason appearances. The three-time Sixth Man of the Year chipped in 21 points, eight assists, and five rebounds in a vintage performance. Sweet Lou kept the Hawks in rhythm and in a dominating pace, especially after Giannis hyperextended his knee and exited the game.
The biggest factors for Atlanta, though, were quality three-point shooting and improved defense up and down the floor. The Hawks shot 13-of-38 from long range (34.2%), one game after shooting 15-of-37 from deep (40.5%). Atlanta has also made it a point to limit Milwaukee’s fast-break points, getting back on defense to avoid long outlets and runouts.
The Hawks dished seven more assists than the Bucks (26-19), and they won the turnover battle 11-15. Atlanta had 11 steals, compared to just five for Milwaukee. The Hawks shot 50.6 percent from the floor, and they went 11-of-13 from the line (84.6%). The Bucks shot 39.3 percent (20.5% from three), and they converted just 14 of 19 free throw attempts (73.7%).
Bucks Struggle Without Giannis
Long story short, Mike Budenholzer’s Bucks lost their best player and fell flat on their faces. No Milwaukee player reached 20 points, or pulled down nine rebounds. Khris Middleton went from the playoff game of his life in Game 3, to ‘thumbs down, fart sounds’ in Game 4 (I jest—16-8-5 is not terrible… it just looks terrible compared to his 38-11-7 line one game prior).
Some teams are far too dependent on their best player. You’d expect Atlanta to be one of those squads, given its youthful core and lack of playoff experience. But on Tuesday, the Bucks were the team that looked lost without its leader. Milwaukee got boat-raced 110-88, in a game that really wasn’t even as close as that score indicates.
The Hawks believe in themselves, and they have a fantastic opportunity to grab another game before Antetokounmpo potentially returns from his knee injury. Word on the street is that Giannis did not suffer any major structural damage (i.e. ACL/MCL, etc… that’s a lot of letters), so he could return later in the series. But there’s absolutely no way Milwaukee will risk rushing him into a Game 5 return. You can’t mortgage your franchise’s short and long-term futures to take a one-game lead in the Eastern Conference Final
Hawks vs Bucks Game 5 Picks
Long story short, I’m all-in on Milwaukee’s -240 moneyline. But I’m somehow still intrigued by the ‘dogs against the spread. Call me cuckoo, or just a converted Trae fan, but I still like the idea of backing the Hawks against the ropes at home if we can get the spread up to +7. We have already seen Atlanta steal Game 1 of this series on the road, and it did the same in its first two playoff rounds. And like we said, the Hawks led for three quarters of Game 3—do we really expect them to get boat-raced in Game 4? I don’t.
Atlanta’s home record ATS this season is 26-16, fourth-best in the NBA. The Hawks are a resilient bunch. I have no doubt they will show up with their heads held high, and at least cover the spread on Tuesday. I just don’t think they will win the game straight up, or for that matter, win another game this postseason. Moneyline bettors, it seems it’s time for the NBA to once again ‘fear the deer.’ But spread bettors, don’t count on Young reading or adhering to that memo.
- Game 4 Prediction: Bucks 108-105
- Pick: Hawks +2
Image Credit: Imagn