Home Run Derby: Monday, August 19th
Calling home runs, besides great fun, often makes the difference between a wildly profitable night in DFS and missing the cash line. Throughout the 2019 MLB season, I will endeavor to find a few home runs in three salary tiers on DraftKings. Join me throughout the year and call your home runs for monthly and seasonal RotoGrinders prizes. Without further ado, let’s play Home Run Derby!
Throughout this season, I will produce the Home Run Derby for main slates on DraftKings 2-3 days per week — selecting a home run from three different pricing tiers. If you want to call your home runs, please use these tiers for your selections to be eligible for any Derby prizes. Here are the tiers.
Luxury Box – $4,500 and above
Club Seats – $3,500 – $4400
Bleachers – Below $3,500
Hitters must be selected from the DraftKings Main Slate.
Schedule this Week: Monday, Tuesday, Friday
Happy Monday, Grinders! I apologize for the missed article on Friday. With the due date approaching, my family is in high gear with all preparations for our next addition. Friday was extremely hectic between appointments and tasks and I just could not get it done. This week is the expected week — the due date is specifically Thursday — so who knows what will happen. With that out of the way, I am going to get into my picks for tonight’s nine-game slate. The leaderboard will follow. Since the update is from almost one week ago, I will just post the leaderboard with a few closing thoughts.
The Astros will face Edwin Jackson this evening. The Royals travel to Camden Yards to hit — probably — 35 home runs this series. Arlington plays host to a baseball game with a 99-degree temperature. Who is going yard? Here are my picks for this evening.
The statistics for each player are for the 2019 season.
Jorge Soler — OF – $5,500
Soler in 2019 – .292 ISO, 40.6 FB%, 47.2 Hard%, 92.3 MPH aEV
Means vs RHH – .184 ISO, 87.2 MPH aEV, 47.0 FB%, 30.2 Hard%
While the name recognition may not be present, Jorge Soler is truly hitting for a ton of power in 2019. While his power mostly emanates from the right side of the platoon, Soler still hits enough fly balls (39.2%) and makes enough hard-contact (47.3%) to get the job done against John Means and company.
John Means and company… While Means has been relatively solid in his young career, company, well, company is not good. The Orioles’ pitching woes are well-document and I see no reason for a change in hot and humid weather. Soler could be the most legitimate multiple-homer candidate on the slate considering the shape of the Orioles’ bullpen.
Mike Moustakas – 2B/3B – $4,000
Moustakas in 2019 – .252 ISO, 42.9 FB%, 42.1 Hard%, 89.6 MPH aEV
Hudson vs LHH – .223 ISO, 91.5 MPH aEV, 24.3 FB%, 44.8 Hard%
Dakota Hudson is a groundball pitcher — even to lefties — but Mike Moustakas is a fly ball hitter. Moose has been relegated to this price tier for quite some time now and while his home confines are a more attractive location — hot and humid St. Louis should be just fine.
Hudson gives up more than enough hard-contact to lefties to counter his high groundball rate. Moose’s fly ball rate is even more pronounced against righties — with his 46.2 FB% indicating he will hit a couple of balls in the air tonight. The climate and context are perfect for those fly balls to leave the yard against an average pitcher.
Mike Brosseau – 2B/3B – $3,400
Brosseau in 2019 – .200 ISO, 46.8 FB%, 43.0 Hard%, 85.3 MPH aEV
Gonzales vs RHH – .146 ISO, 88.5 MPH aEV, 37.7 FB%, 31.1 Hard%
Of course, there is this tier. Despite all of the great environments in play this evening, this tier remains pretty ugly. Instead of targeting a really, really bad hitter in a great context, I am going to target a hitter with the requisite fly ball tools in a less appetizing situation.
Brosseau’s numbers indicate fly ball tendencies that we pine for each day. Of course, Tropicana Field is not the ideal location for home run hunting and neither is his opponent. Marco Gonzales does not allow much hard contact against righties but possibly just enough fly balls that Brosseau can get into one. I don’t know. I am eager to see who everyone likes in this tier. I struggled down here, today.
Leaderboard (sortable by column)
A handful of contestants — myself included — were able to secure a home run last Tuesday. Shanekern03 and DJESQUIRE were two of the contestants to do so, meaning they are still deadlocked atop the August leaderboard with seven home runs apiece. With a nice-sized slate this evening, and plenty of hot weather, we should see a handful of home runs.
Who is going to hit home runs, tonight? How many home runs will the Royals hit in Camden Yards? Will the Astros bring Edwin Jackson back to Earth? Will Shane continue his quest to sweep the month? I will — hopefully — be back tomorrow to update the standings and pick a few more home runs. Until then, good luck and have a great day, everyone.
I am happy to announce that at the end of each month I will be rewarding the highest home run total with a RotoGrinders T-shirt. Having a rough month? Don’t let up. The RotoGrinders member with the most home runs throughout the season — until the end of August — will be awarded a 3-month Combo Premium subscription to start the NFL season!
Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed the article, stick around for the rest of the MLB season. Want to compete against me? Drop your expensive, mid-tier, and cheap home run calls in the comments (DraftKings pricing). Otherwise, give me a follow on Twitter where I typically post slate-relevant statistics and embarrassing comments about professional wrestling.
Statistics for this article are obtained from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, RotoGrinders Daily Research Console, and Baseball Savant.