Identifying Trends for FanDuel - Week 10
Identifying trends is extremely important to daily fantasy football and online sports betting success. If you want to win your weekly contests and bets, you have to be proactive in identifying trends and figuring out how those trends influence the value of that player and his teammates. This weekly article will attempt to help you in that process by highlighting a couple of players whose values may be trending up and a couple of players who are trending down.
Trending Up
Ronald Jones ($6,300)
Ronald Jones’ snap-rates through the first nine weeks of the season:
Week 1: 32%
Week 2: 12%
Week 3: 31%
Week 4: 49%
Week 5: 33%
Week 6: 16%
BYE
Week 8: 26%
Week 9: 53%
Is Ronald Jones finally going to see a big enough workload for us to roster him on our FanDuel rosters? Jones’ saw a season-high snap rate in Week 9 and saw his second-highest touch total of the season as he parlayed 18 carries and 2 receptions into 82-yards and a touchdown, good for 15.2 FanDuel points. We saw Jones’ snap-rate spike back in Week 4 just to trend back down in Week’s 5 & 6 but there’s some reason to believe Jones will the Tampa Bay’s lead back moving forward as Bruce Arians said that Jones has earned the right to start and play more. Furthermore, Arians stated Jones has been the most explosive back on the team.
If Jones’ increased field time is here to stay, it’s coming at a perfect spot in the schedule as Tampa Bay will host the fast-paced Arizona Cardinals in Week 10. Arizona has been below average against the run this season ranking 19th in rush-defense DVOA but more importantly, their quick pace leads to increased volume for opposing offenses. 20 touches could be in the cards (pun intended) this week and he is way too cheap for that kind of workload on a potent offense.
Damien Williams ($6,000)
I want to start by saying the Chiefs’ backfield has been nearly impossible to predict this season. I also don’t think that we can reliably take one week of snap allocations and use that as the benchmark moving forward. With that said, Williams’ increase in playing time was extremely encouraging as he was on the field for 43-of-57 offensive plays. Damien exploded for a 12/125/1 line against the Vikings and looked good in his increased role as he sprung a 91-yard touchdown run and saw his most carries of the season since Week 1.
Patrick Mahomes is expected back soon for the Chiefs and whoever is the lead back at the time of his return holds a lot of value simply due to Kansas City’s expected offensive efficiency. Week 10’s matchup isn’t especially strong for Williams against the Titans but the Chiefs schedule lightens up the following two weeks as they travel to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers and then host Oakland after their Week 12 bye.
Ty Johnson ($5,900)
While Ronald Jones’ and Damien Williams’ increased roles aren’t flying under-the-radar, Ty Johnson’s is as he wasn’t able to parlay his increased Week 9 role into a strong fantasy performance. Detroit’s backfield was a disaster in Week 8 with Tra Carson in the mix but things seemed to clear up a bit for Johnson last week against the Raiders with Carson placed on IR. The Lions went from a four-back committee in Week 8 to a two-back committee in Week 9 with Johnson leading the way with a 60.8% snap-rate and 12 touches. J.D. McKissic drew a 37.7% snap-rate while Paul Perkins was on the field for just 3-of-69 snaps.
Similar to Williams, Johnson doesn’t benefit from a fantasy-friendly matchup in Week 10 but the schedule does clear up for him a bit in weeks 11 and 12. Johnson’s role is unlikely to hold as much value as Jones and Williams moving forward but it is something I want to keep my eye on as he could be a strong buy-low candidate in future weeks if he remains as active as he was in Week 9.
Trending Down
Nick Chubb ($7,900)
If you were like me and rostered Nick Chubb in Week 9 you didn’t have a whole lot of fun. Chubb continued to be frustratingly used as just an early down-back as Dontrell Hilliard was on the field on the majority of third-down and passing situations. Hilliard’s usage is in and of itself a fantasy hindrance to Chubb moving forward but Chubb will now also battle for playing time with Kareem Hunt who is returning from suspension in Week 10.
It’s unknown what Hunt’s role will be exactly but Freddie Kitchens’ was quoted as saying Hunt “will definitely have a role” against the Bills. Buffalo has been surprisingly giving on the ground on the season, ranking third-worst in rush-defense DVOA, but it’s tough to project Chubb for a big enough workload to justify his price tag as the fifth-most expensive RB on Sunday’s Main Slate.