Identifying Trends for FanDuel - Week 11
Identifying trends is extremely important to daily fantasy football and online sports betting success. If you want to win your weekly contests and bets, you have to be proactive in identifying trends and figuring out how those trends influence the value of that player and his teammates.
This weekly article will attempt to help you in that process by highlighting a couple of players whose values may be trending up and a couple of players who are trending down.
Trending Up
Devin Singletary ($6,500)
Devin Singletary’s playing time has been trending up ever since he returned from injury in Week 7 and he once again saw lead-back duties in Week 10 as he logged a 67.8% snap-rate. Singletary’s lack of fantasy production was disappointing but his continued involvement as a pass-catcher (7 targets) and his 57.1% rush share among Buffalo RBs was encouraging.
Next up for Singletary and the Bills is a Week 11 matchup against the lowly Miami Dolphins. Miami is riding high after consecutive wins but remains a favorable matchup for opposing running backs, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position through the first ten weeks of the season.
J.D. McKissic ($5,800)
J.D. McKissic was already locked into a third-down/pass-catching role for the Lions and now may see his role expanded even further due to Ty Johnson suffering a Week 10 concussion. Johnson suffered his head injury early in the game, playing just 12 offensive snaps, and as a result, McKissic saw his most playing time of the season, logging a 69.5% snap-rate. In comparison, Detroit’s third RB Paul Perkins played just 15-of-82 snaps.
Now before we get too excited about J.D. McKissic’s possible featured role we have to remember this is Matt Patricia and the Lions we’re talking about. Patricia has already shown us this season that he’s willing to give four RBs playing time on any given week which could ultimately cut down on McKissic’s workload. Realistically, I wouldn’t bank on a 70% snap-rate for McKissic moving forward but his role as a pass-catcher may be all he needs to keep his fantasy value afloat.
Brian Hill ($5,900)
Brian Hill is another RB that may be vaulted into a feature role due to injury as Devonta Freeman left Week 10 early with a foot injury. Freeman’s Week 11 status remains up in the air but he seems unlikely to play which means Atlanta will likely rely on Hill for lead back duties with former backup RB Ito Smith already placed on IR.
Atlanta gave Hill a heavy workload in Freeman’s absence as he totaled 21 touches on a 50% snap-rate. Hill will have a more favorable matchup next week as the Falcons will square off against a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in rush defense DVOA and is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the RB position through ten weeks. Provided Freeman is out against the Panthers, Hill’s role seems more stable than the aforementioned J.D. McKissic.
Trending Down
David Johnson ($6,200)
David Johnson returned to action in Week 10 and it was his first time seeing the field with Kenyan Drake also active. Johnson finished the game playing just 29-of-68 snaps, lost a fumble, and was only able to parlay 6 touches into 13 total yards. On the other hand, Drake was also inefficient totaling just 41 yards on 16 touches but operated as the lead back playing 43-of-68 snaps.
In addition to Johnson’s lack of on-field production, Monday’s coach speak wasn’t favorable for the former RB1 either. Cardinals’ head coach Kliff Kingsbury stated that Johnson is still working through injuries and Drake worked ahead of Johnson down the stretch because he wanted to keep him “rolling”. Even if Johnson sees a more expanded role moving forward, the fact remains he’s now firmly a part of a timeshare and will be hard to trust for fantasy production in the foreseeable future.