Jaguars vs. Bills Same Game Parlay Picks and Predictions for Today

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-09-23 17:42:29

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The NFL offers a 2-game slate for Monday Night Football. The Commanders will travel to Cincinnati to play the Bengals. The Jaguars will head to Buffalo for an AFC showdown with the Bills. The Bills opened the season 2-0 after a strong performance against the Dolphins in Week 2. Josh Allen and company look to keep the train moving as the Jaguars look to find their first win. Let’s break down the game before building a same game parlay for Monday Night Football.

Jaguars vs. Bills Same Game Parlay Preview

DraftKings Sportsbook posted the Buffalo Bills as 5.5-point home favorites on Monday night. The implied game total is 45.5 with an abundance of action falling on the over per ScoresAndOdds. Both teams opened the season on opposite paths. The Bills look like a contender. The Jaguars look to be on the decline.

We’ll start with key injuries. The Bills did a great job against Miami in Week 2 but lost two key players. Slot corner Taron Johnson will not play on Monday night. LB Terrel Bernard will miss with a strained pec and could potentially see the injured reserve. With Matt Milano lost earlier, the Bills defense continues to be bombarded with injuries. I wonder how long this defense can keep things together as key players keep falling out of the rotation.

For the Jaguars, Evan Engram is likely to miss Monday Night Football with a hamstring injury. Engram missed last week and was replaced by Brenton Strange. Strange secured 3 catches for 65 yards and will likely need to be productive for a struggling Jaguars offense. Tank Bigsby looks to be a game-time decision with a shoulder injury. If Bigsby can’t play, Travis Etienne will receive a heavy workload for the Jaguars. Etienne has not been that efficient thus far in 2024 but might find room against a Bills defense beleaguered with injuries.

After losing Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, the Bills opened the season with several question marks on the offensive side of the football. Will Dalton Kincaid break out? Can rookie Keon Coleman assume the production of the jettisoned veterans? Can Khalil Shakir and James Cook continue to take steps forward?

The answer seems to be Josh Allen. Allen opened the season with two sterling weeks. The MVP candidate hasn’t turned the ball over in 2024 and has looked incredible with a new receiver room. Allen faces a Jaguars defense that sits in the bottom third of yards per pass attempt on defense. Allen will look to hog the spotlight on Monday night and keep sole possession of first place in the AFC East.

The Jaguars have struggled. They held a lead against the Miami Dolphins in Week 1 until the very end of the game. They lost to a Cleveland Browns team that couldn’t move the ball on offense in Week 3. The postseason Jaguars seem to be a thing of the past unless they can turn it around on Monday night. Trevor Lawrence has been pedestrian at best thus far with a 51% completion rate and 82.3 passer rating. He has 1 passing touchdown with no interceptions.

Brian Thomas Jr. looks to be a budding star in the NFL with a very explosive first couple of weeks. Thomas caught a 66-yard touchdown in Week 2 and looks to be a true downfield threat like teammate Gabe Davis. Both receivers have 6 catches and more than 100 yards through the first 2 weeks. Christian Kirk, however, has only caught 2 passes on 7 targets for his quarterback. Kirk should get more slot work without Evan Engram and might find room with Taron Johnson out.

The Jaguars defense allowed 341 rushing yards to the quarterback position in 2023. Jacksonville allowed a league-worst 109 receptions to the running back position in 2023. In the first 2 weeks, running backs have 12 catches against Jacksonville. The Jaguars defense has a history of struggling with two key cogs in the Bills’ offensive machine — Allen’s legs and Cook’s versatility. We might want to jump on these prop lines.

Let’s build our same game parlay for the Bills versus the Jaguars on Monday Night Football.

Same Game Parlay Picks for Jaguars vs. Bills

Bills Moneyline
Josh Allen Over 31.5 Rushing Yards
James Cook Over 2.5 Receptions

Bills Moneyline

I don’t want to play around this evening. The Jaguars have not looked great in 2024 and the defense could be playing a bit over their heads thus far. The Bills might not have a superstar receiver outside, but Josh Allen is just too much to defend. The Bills can spread teams out or pound the football with James Cook. The Bills defense is injured but can make enough plays if playing with the lead.

I like the spread and might consider an additional SGP where I replace the moneyline with the points for better odds. However, given the ability to add extra legs, I will let the Bills win for me on Monday night.

Josh Allen Over 31.5 Rushing Yards

With a Bills victory, one would assume that Josh Allen is going to take a great part in the effort. The Jaguars allowed plenty of rushing yards to the quarterback position in 2023. Josh Allen is not your average rushing quarterback.

The Bills offensive coordinator has made it clear that he wants his star quarterback to make plays. When the Bills don’t need to, they will hand the ball off. However, when this game is close, Allen will call his number if there is room to run. Allen will likely have a few plays called for him to run as well and should make a run at this number in a Bills victory.

James Cook Over 2.5 Receptions

Unlike last season, the Bills are making it clear that James Cook is the guy in the Buffalo backfield. Ray Davis saw carries last week but that was after James Cook scored 3 touchdowns. When the game is in jeopardy, the Bills will lean on their talented back. He will receive a big share of the rushing and will also see a handful of targets. Toward the end of last season when the Buffalo offense got white hot, Cook was more involved. The Jaguars struggled with receiving backs last season.

I don’t think that is going to change against one of the more dynamic backs in the league. I think the over on receptions or receiving yards is in play on Monday night for James Cook.

Outside of my selections, I like Christian Kirk on the other side. At the time of this writing, DraftKings does not have props for Kirk posted, while other betting sites do. I would love to add Kirk over 2.5 catches to this SGP and will if DraftKings posts before game time.