JMToWin's NFL Edge: Week 13

by JM Tohline (JMToWin) Last Updated 2017-12-03 13:34:29 Premium Content Part of the product Core4

Each week this NFL season, JMToWin will break down every game on the NFL slate from top to bottom, with a look at game flow, player matchups, coaching tendencies, DFS strategy, and anything else that shows up in his research that might give you an edge on the slate. Widely regarded as the most in-depth, DFS-specific article in the industry, this top-to-bottom breakdown is just what you need in order to conquer the slate and take home money each week!

Patriots at Bills

Vegas-Implied Total: Patriots 28.75, Bills 20.25

KEY MATCHUPS:

Bills Run D – 27th DVOA / 20th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O – 7th DVOA / 14th Yards per carry

Bills Pass D – 11th DVOA / 13th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Patriots Pass O – 1st DVOA / 1st Yards per pass attempt

Patriots Run D – 29th DVOA / 32nd Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O – 27th DVOA / 21st Yards per carry

Patriots Pass D – 25th DVOA / 26th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Bills Pass O – 25th DVOA / 24th Yards per pass attempt

______

LEVEL I – The Research

The Buffalo Bills run a zone-dominant coverage scheme and rank 29th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate – which means that Tom Brady will typically have all day to dissect a zone defense, with Josh McDaniels calling plays that fit receivers into the soft spots of this zone. This sets up well for the Pats’ passing attack, and sets up poorly for the Buffalo defense.

Since Chris Hogan went down, Brandin Cooks has seen target counts of 11, nine, and seven, and he should be locked into at least seven targets once again in this spot. Phillip Dorsett continues to see time on the field, but he has only three total targets in the last three weeks, and Danny Amendola will provide a third down outlet and check-down option for Tom Brady – though on a Patriots attack that has emphasized downfield throwing this year (sixth in average intended air yards; first in yards per pass attempt), against a Bills defense unlikely to get pressure on Brady for large stretches of the game, this shapes up as the sort of spot in which Amendola is likelier to land on the lower end of his target range (four) than on the higher end (nine). Rob Gronkowski is the best tight end in football, and he has seven or more targets in five of his last six games. For what it’s worth, Gronk grew up in Buffalo and has seven touchdowns in six games at the Ralph (he has scored at least once in five of six games he has played there). He has also topped 100 yards in four of six games at Buffalo, with his worst yardage game in Buffalo yielding a 4-54-2 line in his rookie season, and with his “worst” DFS line going 7-94-0.