JMToWin's NFL Edge: Week 8

by JM Tohline (JMToWin) Last Updated 2017-10-30 13:04:15 Premium Content Part of the product Core4

Each week this NFL season, JMToWin will break down every game on the NFL slate from top to bottom, with a look at game flow, player matchups, coaching tendencies, DFS strategy, and anything else that shows up in his research that might give you an edge on the slate. Widely regarded as the most in-depth, DFS-specific article in the industry, this top-to-bottom breakdown is just what you need in order to conquer the slate and take home money each week!

A Look Back At Week 7

Last year, I broke down my “main DraftKings team” each week at the top of this article (the team on which I usually have about 80% to 90% of my money), in order to provide a glimpse into what my thought process was. I’ve had a few people ask throughout the season if I could bring that back.

Here you go!

Score: 136.56
Result: Good for almost all double-ups, and about 60% H2H win rate; just short in most tourneys

Team:

Russell Wilson – 29.36
Chris Ivory – 9.70
LeSean McCoy – 28.20
Pierre Garcon – 9.90
Jordan Matthews – 3.00
Demaryius Thomas – 2.90
Hunter Henry – 11.30
Le’Veon Bell – 25.20
Rams – 17.00

I originally had a different setup, with Dak Prescott over Russ, Marqise Lee over Matthews, Mark Ingram instead of Le’Veon, and the Jaguars instead of the Rams. Russ and Dak were a wash, Ingram and Bell were a wash, and the Rams and Jags were a wash. I lost only about one point from that portion of the switch, but Matthews fell about eight points shy of Lee, which made a big difference for me in tourneys. Incidentally, Matthews was the reason I changed my team, as I wanted him over Lee (or Woods) if he was active. While Lee has big upside when the targets flow toward him, we established in the Edge last week that Bortles is less likely to top 30 pass attempts when the Jags have a lead (which I expected them to have), while Matthews should have benefitted from his return and the absence of Charles Clay against the worst pass defense in football. On the one hand, it’s easy to say in retrospect that “I shouldn’t have trusted Matthews in cash games in his first game back from a broken thumb,” but these changes also enabled me to move from Ingram up to Bell – whose workload gives him a higher weekly floor/ceiling.

Ivory (as laid out in this article last week, and again on the Friday night Round Table) was a lock for me if Fournette was out. The moment news broke around 4:00 AM that Fournette was not expected to play, Ivory was on my team. While Yeldon had a huge game on fewer touches, I feel that could just as easily have been Ivory; no regrets there.