Chiefs vs. Bengals Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Chiefs vs. Bengals Odds
| Chiefs Odds | -2 |
| Bengals Odds | +2 |
| Over/Under | 53 |
| Date | Sun, Dec. 4 |
| Time | 4:25 p.m. |
| TV | CBS |
On Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs will travel to Paycor Stadium to battle the Cincinnati Bengals in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game. Entering play, Kansas City has five consecutive games and owns the best record in the AFC. Cincinnati has won three in a row and five of their last six contests to pull into a tie for first place in the AFC North division standings. Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair between these two teams this weekend, pricing the Chiefs as 2-point road favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Kansas City Chiefs
Only the Philadelphia Eagles own a better record than the Kansas City Chiefs through 11 games in 2022. Kansas City has lost only twice this fall – in Week 3, by three points against the Indianapolis Colts, and in Week 6, by four points against the Buffalo Bills. Patrick Mahomes and company are 5-0 since Week 7, with three double-digit victories and a +53 point differential overall. In that span, Mahomes is averaging 369.8 passing yards per game. On the season, he leads all qualified signal callers in passing yards and passing touchdowns, and ranks second in QBR. Playing behind an elite offensive line, bettors should not expect Mahomes to drop-off significantly any time soon. Facing a strong Cincinnati run defense, Kansas City could once again lean heavily on the superior arm-talent of their quarterback this afternoon. It is worth noting that left guard Joe Thuney is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. Per Pro Football Focus, Thuney has been the best pass-blocker in the entire NFL this season among guards.
Defensive end Frank Clark was also a late add to the injury report this weekend. Clark is reportedly dealing with an illness, but his potential absence is less concerning than Thuney’s. Clark has been a poor run-defender in 2022, and has made only a minimal impact as a pass-rusher, collecting three sacks in nine games. More importantly, cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and L’Jarius Sneed will be on the field on Sunday. Since McDuffie returned from injured reserve in Week 9, Kansas City’s secondary unit ranks 10th in Dropback EPA/play. In those four games, the defense has allowed 17 points or fewer three times. The largest vulnerability for this group in Week 13 will, once again, be the play of their safeties. If the Chiefs can limit explosive plays, Cincinnati could find it difficult to put points on the board in this matchup.
Cincinnati Bengals
There is both good news and bad news for Bengals fans when they wake up on Sunday morning. The good news is that wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase is expected to play for the first time in over a month. In seven games with Chase on the field this fall, Cincinnati ranked 6th in offensive EPA/play, and only the Chiefs and Bills had better advanced metrics through the air. The bad news is that running back Joe Mixon has still not graduated from concussion protocol, and appears unlikely to suit-up this afternoon. If he is unable to play, the bulk of the backfield duties will be assigned to Samaje Perine, who has totaled 88 rushing yards on 28 attempts (3.1 yards-per-carry) across the last two weeks.
Defensively, the Bengals are in a much better spot than they were before defensive tackle D.J. Reader returned to the field last week. From Week 1 to Week 3, with Reader on the field, the Bengals ranked 14th in Rush EPA/play and allowed only 258 rushing yards on 69 attempts (3.7 yards-per-carry). From Week 4 to Week 11, with Reader off of the field, Cincinnati’s defense ranked 27th in Rush EPA/play and allowed 913 rushing yards on 199 attempts (4.6 yards-per-carry). Last week, Reader helped the Bengals hold running back Derrick Henry to 38 rushing yards on 17 carries. Expect his presence to be a boon for this run defense against the Chiefs as well. The larger issue for this defense is a secondary unit that ranks 20th in Dropback EPA/play since Week 7.
Chiefs vs. Bengals – Picks & Predictions
The status of guard Joe Thuney is worth monitoring ahead of kickoff, as his absence would only further support taking the under in this spot. Since cornerback Trent McDuffie returned to the field in Week 9, the Chiefs have been extremely strong against opposing passing attacks, ranking top-10 in Dropback EPA/play, and holding their opponents to 17 points or fewer in three of four games. The return of defensive tackle D.J. Reader for the Bengals significantly improves Cincinnati’s ability to win at the line of scrimmage, which should help the entire defense perform better than they did in his absence. The market often overlooks key injuries on the offensive line and on the defensive side of the ball – take the under here.
PICK: Under 55 (-145, MGM)
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