Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Lakers vs. Nuggets Odds
| Lakers Odds | +5 |
| Nuggets Odds | -5 |
| Over/Under | 228.5 |
| Date | Tue, Oct. 24 |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. |
| TV | TNT |
The first game of the 2023-2024 NBA regular season is a highly-anticipated rematch of last year’s Western Conference Finals, featuring the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets. LeBron James teased retirement after last year’s postseason, but is back with the Lakers for opening night. Nikola Jokic and the defending champions get to start the new campaign at home, where they went 34-7 last year.
Below, we break down the matchup for both teams and offer a free pick for the betting community!
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Los Angeles Lakers
Anthony Davis looking to be aggressive at “three levels”
Earlier in October, Lakers head coach Darvin Ham joked that he wants to see Anthony Davis shoot six three-pointers per game this season. Though the comment was clearly a hyperbole, Ham did make a point to end his thoughts on the matter by saying that he wants Davis to “be aggressive at all three levels,” which translates to – “he has the green light to shoot from the perimeter.”
Davis has shot 30.0% from beyond the arc for his career, so the idea of him being more intentional about spreading the floor is far from outlandish. In fact, Davis made at least one three-pointer in each of his five games played during the preseason, despite playing as few as 13 minutes in one of those contests.
The changing of the guard appears to be a real thing, with Davis taking over from LeBron James as the team’s primary offensive threat. Davis could be in store for an MVP-level campaign if he is able to knock down shots from beyond the arc on a consistent basis, and of course, stay healthy.
James, Lakers looking for payback
The Nuggets swept the Lakers during last year’s Western Conference Finals, but each of those four games was highly competitive. As a result, some members of the Lakers roster, including Austin Reaves and LeBron James, appeared to take it personally when Denver head coach Mike Malone openly mocked James and the Lakers during the Nuggets’ parade celebration.
Reaves, James, Anthony Davis, and even head coach Darvin Ham have made public comments suggesting that this game is circled on their calendar for opening night. Ham said on a podcast, “This s— ain’t over,” according to ESPN. Expect Los Angeles to come ready to play on Tuesday evening.
Denver Nuggets
Home juggernauts
Last year, the Nuggets finished the regular season 34-7 on their home floor, ranking second in the NBA in offensive efficiency and sixth in defensive efficiency in those contests. Only the Memphis Grizzlies had a better Net Rating on their home floor than the Nuggets.
Much of Denver’s success at home can be attributed to their leader, Nikola Jokic. In 35 games at home last season, Jokic averaged a triple double, posting averages of 24.8 points, 13.1 rebounds, and 11.1 assists. He shot 64.1% from the floor in those games.
Playing in the altitude is one of the most significant and undeniable home court advantages in the NBA, and something that opposing teams are forced to contend with each time they travel to play Denver.
Denver defense is vulnerable in the paint
If there is one major concern for Denver’s defense in this matchup, it is around the rim. Only the New Orleans Pelicans and Orlando Magic allowed a higher field goal percentage on attempts in the restricted area last season. LeBron James and Anthony Davis ranked third and fourth in the entire NBA, respectively, in field goal attempts per game in the restricted area last year, converting roughly 75.0% of those shot attempts into points. If the Nuggets are unable to slow down the Lakers’ top two stars, this matchup could get interesting on opening night.
Lakers vs. Nuggets Prediction & Pick
Los Angeles was swept by Denver during last year’s Western Conference Finals, but their four losses came by a combined 24 points, with three of the four games being decided by six points or less. The Lakers roster matches up well with the Nuggets. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are a tough duo to handle for any defense, and this year’s Los Angeles roster has better shooting around their two stars, which should help with spacing and overall flow on the offensive end of the floor. Nikola Jokic has been busy scouting horses while the Lakers have seemingly been directing all of their energy towards opening night, with one goal in mind. Do not be surprised if we see an upset right out of the gate to start the NBA season.
- PICK: Lakers Moneyline (+164)