Last Min. Research: NFL Week 4
I know better than anyone that digging through the daily research console can be a daunting task. There’s a lot there and finding which tools hold the most value for you is challenging. With that in mind, this is the inaugural Last Minute Research article where I’ll pull out some interesting stats for the weekend’s games and then link you to where I found them. You can dig deeper if a stat interests you, or move onto the next one if it doesn’t.
Have a question about a specific research tool? Feel free to post in the comments or check the links beneath each section for FAQ-related answers
Last Week’s Targets
Shown below are all players with over 10 targets in Week 3.
| Target Leaders – Week 3 | LAST-WK | DIFF | Week1 | Week2 | SeasAvg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 19 | 19 | |||
| Cecil Shorts | 15 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 13.3 |
| Jimmy Graham | 15 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 12.7 |
| Pierre Garcon | 13 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 12.3 |
| Antonio Brown | 13 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 9.7 |
| Stevie Johnson | 13 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 9.7 |
| Calvin Johnson | 13 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 10 |
| Julio Jones | 12 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 11.7 |
| Randall Cobb | 11 | -1 | 12 | 10 | 11 |
| Denarius Moore | 11 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 6.7 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 11 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 9.3 |
| Jordan Cameron | 11 | -2 | 13 | 7 | 10.3 |
| Robert Woods | 10 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Santonio Holmes | 10 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 6.3 |
| Aaron Dobson | 10 | 10 | 10 | ||
| Nate Washington | 10 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 7.3 |
| Davone Bess | 10 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 9.3 |
NOTES:
- Josh Gordon ran away with a whopping 19 targets but his teammate, Davone Bess, also saw the ball thrown his way 10 times from Brian Hoyer. 10 targets should usually equal at least 5-6 receptions, which might be a nice value on full point PPR sites.
- Cecil Shorts hasn’t wowed anyone yet but the numbers indicate he’s on his way. Last week’s nightmare matchup is over and the Colts defense isn’t mind-blowing by any stretch. If he sees 15 targets again, he’s talented enough to make something big happen.
- Robert Woods and Nate Washington are the other two value plays that stand out to me. Washington could be a tremendous play if Kenny Britt is unable to suit up tomorrow against the Jets.
LINKS
Week to Week WR Target Stats
Week to Week TE Target Stats
Salary Rankings by Site: Quarterbacks
| Quarterbacks | FD | DS | DD | DK | FF | SS | FTD | AVG | ST. DEV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrelle Pryor | 25 | 10 | 12 | 28 | 24 | 16 | 21 | 19.43 | 6.88 |
| Joe Flacco | 17 | 25 | 27 | 14 | 23 | 21 | 15 | 20.29 | 5.06 |
| E.J. Manuel | 27 | 22 | 22 | 27 | 14 | 27 | 25 | 23.43 | 4.72 |
| Brian Hoyer | 29 | 26 | 29 | 24 | 17 | 29 | 26 | 25.71 | 4.31 |
Notes:
- I sorted by standard deviation here to see which QB’s are priced most-differently on each DFS site.
- Terrelle Pryor is the 10th most expensive QB on DraftStreet but sits in the bottom fourth of starting QBs on DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyFeud. If he goes, I might consider him a nice play on any of those 3 sites.
- Joe Flacco has a nice matchup this week but might be overpriced on FanDuel, DraftKings and FanThrowDown. Whereas on DraftStreet and DraftDay, his salary rank seems lower than where I’d rank him as a QB option for Sunday.
LINKS
QB Salary Charts
Ceiling Stats
Shown below are the three remaining running backs with ceiling percentages of 100%. A ceiling game is when an RB scores over 16 FP. A consistency game is when they score over 12 and a floor game is when they score under 4 points.
| Running Backs | Tm | GP | FP-S | FP-3 | FP-1 | Max | Min | Rng | StDev | Floor% | Ceil% | Cons% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | PHI | 3 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 21.8 | 25.4 | 19.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 0.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| Matt Forte | CHI | 3 | 18.6 | 18.6 | 19.1 | 19.6 | 17.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| Jamaal Charles | KC | 3 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 26.7 | 26.7 | 17.5 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 0.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
Notes:
- Only these three RB’s have played in all 3 games and posted over 16 fantasy points in each of them this season.
- Forte has been as consistent as they come, but also doesn’t have the high ceiling that you may get from Charles and McCoy.
- While these 3 are the only ones to go over 16 fantasy points 3 times already, none of them rank in the top-4 for single game performances. Lynch, Bush, Peterson and Murray hold those honors.
LINKS
Running Back Ceiling and Consistency Stats
Red Zone Offense vs. Defense
Shown below are the top-3 offense vs. defense red zone touchdown percentages for Week 4. Stats with a purple header are team offense stats, stats in red are team defense stats and the black/orange background denotes the average of the two.
| Offense | Defense | RZ-Att/G | RZ-TD/G | RZ-TD% | RZ-Att/G | RZ-TD/G | RZ-TD% | Avg Att | Avg TD | Avg TD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego | Dallas | 3.7 | 2.7 | 72.73% | 2.7 | 2.0 | 75.00% | 3.2 | 2.4 | 73.87% |
| Cincinnati | Cleveland | 2.3 | 2.0 | 85.71% | 3.3 | 2.0 | 60.00% | 2.8 | 2.0 | 72.86% |
| Miami | New Orleans | 2.7 | 2.3 | 87.50% | 2.3 | 1.3 | 57.14% | 2.5 | 1.8 | 72.32% |
NOTES:
- I didn’t expect San Diego, Cincy and Miami to have the three best red zone matchups this week.
- Miami has actually had the most successful red zone attack in football to date. Scoring touchdowns on over 87% of chances.
- In the Red Zone, I like to target running backs and tight ends. Sure receivers get looks down here but the muscle is what earns red zone TDs. Guys like Daniel Thomas and Charles Clay for Miami have been RZ studs this year.
- Eddie Royal finally slowed down last week, but it looks like they should see some more RZ opportunities this week and maybe he can find the end zone again.
LINKS
Defense vs. Position
Here are the 5 worst defenses vs. each skill position so far in 2013:
| RANK | Bottom-5 vs. QB’s | RANK | Bottom-5 vs. RB’s | RANK | Bottom-5 vs. WR1’s | RANK | Bottom-5 vs. WR2’s | RANK | Bottom-5 vs. TE’s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | San Diego | 32 | San Francisco | 32 | Washington | 32 | New England | 32 | Arizona |
| 31 | Washington | 31 | Detroit | 31 | Philadelphia | 31 | San Francisco | 31 | Minnesota |
| 30 | Arizona | 30 | Minnesota | 30 | Green Bay | 30 | St. Louis | 30 | Tampa Bay |
| 29 | Green Bay | 29 | Washington | 29 | Buffalo | 29 | Washington | 29 | Miami |
| 28 | Dallas | 28 | Denver | 28 | San Diego | 28 | San Diego | 28 | San Diego |
And here are the 5 best defenses vs. each position (toughest) for the 2013 season thus far:
| RANK | Top-5 vs. QB’s | RANK | Top-5 vs. RB’s | RANK | Top-5 vs. WR1’s | RANK | Top-5 vs. WR2’s | RANK | Top-5 vs. TE’s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle | 1 | NY Jets | 1 | Seattle | 1 | Tampa Bay | 1 | New England |
| 2 | New England | 2 | Chicago | 2 | Pittsburgh | 2 | Seattle | 2 | Carolina |
| 3 | Pittsburgh | 3 | Seattle | 3 | Tampa Bay | 3 | Detroit | 3 | Seattle |
| 4 | New Orleans | 4 | Dallas | 4 | New England | 4 | Kansas City | 4 | New Orleans |
| 5 | Detroit | 5 | Oakland | 5 | New Orleans | 5 | Buffalo | 5 | NY Jets |
NOTES
- I love the Romo play this weekend. San Diego has been porous and don’t be surprised if Romo airs it out a bunch to Witten and Dez.
- With Washington ranking in the bottom-5 against Running Backs and Terrelle Pryor most likely still being somewhat concussed, I really like McFadden as an upside play in PPR formats.
- The 3 worst teams against TE’s so far all face opponents without a real TE option. Heath Miller could be a sneaky value play against MIN if he and Big Ben can find their red zone chemistry from a year ago. After that it looks like it’s worth it to pay up for Witten/Graham this weekend.
LINKS
Defense vs. Position Stats
NFL Cheat Sheets
Well that does it for this week’s Last Minute Research breakdown. If it draws some interest, let me know and I’d be more than happy to bring it back for Week 5.