Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens Prediction: Is Charlie Wright?
Is Charlie Wright? explores one NFL bet each week based on a major decision point. Ideally, this article will lay out a case for the bet in a thorough manner, giving the reader the opportunity to either agree with the perspective and tail the bet or disagree with the breakdown and fade the pick.
Was Charlie Wright?
Yep! CJ Stroud did throw his first career interception, but Houston largely controlled the game on both sides. They continue to play better on defense, bending but not breaking, and coming up with timely stops. And Stroud is for sure a guy. It’s a fun team.
Split the prop picks again. DeAndre Hopkins did virtually nothing, that was a rough one. Mixon didn’t come close to his yardage prop. Easy win there.
I failed to tweet out the poll last week. My bad. So, there are no stats from the public this week.
Records after Week 6
- Charlie: 4-2
- Prop Picks: 8-4
- The Public: 2-2-1
Week 7 Pick: Lions +3 (-120 on Fanatics)
Reason: Home field advantage doesn’t exist.
47-46. That’s the record for home teams coming into Week 7. It comes out to a winning percentage of 50.5%. The trend is one we’ve seen for multiple years, starting with the 2020 season.
With no fans in the stands, road teams actually posted a winning record that year. In 2021, home teams won just 50.9% of games. They bounced back in 2022 with a 56.7% winning percentage, but that seems like an outlier given what we’ve seen so far this year.
Seems like Baltimore is getting the old-school bump of like 2-3 points as the home team, even though Detroit has been better in most areas. The Lions are a top-five offense and a top 10 defense in terms of points per game. The Ravens have been excellent on defense, but middle-of-the-pack on offense.
These teams are also a good example of the shifting home/road trend. Baltimore is 1-1 in true home games and 3-1 in road/neutral site matchups (including a London game). Detroit is 2-1 at home and a perfect 3-0 on the road, which includes wins in Kansas City and Green Bay.
Detroit is tied for the best record in the NFC. Getting a field goal is great value.
PICK: Lions +3 (-120 on Fanatics Sportsbook)
NFL Player Props for Week 7
Desmond Ridder Over 209.5 Passing Yards (-115 on DraftKings)
Atlanta has been slinging it lately, with Ridder averaging 42 attempts over the past two weeks. He’s topped 300 passing yards in both games, something he hadn’t done in his previous eight appearances. Tampa Bay has been great against the run again (7th in yards per game), but they’re 7th-worst against the pass. The Bucs are also slight favorites, which should help for game script purposes.
Colts Under 20.5 Total Points (-160 on Fanatics)
Indianapolis’ team total under 19.5 is available on FanDuel at -106, but I’d like to get beyond that key number of 20. Cleveland’s defense has been incredible, allowing 60 fewer yards per game than the next-closest team. They’re 5th in points per game allowed. Gardner Minshew struggled mightily last week and this offense should have trouble topping 20 again.
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