Mahomes Clear Favorite to Win NFL MVP, Murray & Wilson Make Best Bets
It’s that time of year again. Preseason is winding down and we are just a couple of weeks away from sitting in front of the TV for 9 hours every Sunday watching meaningful football. The only thing that makes watching those games more enjoyable is having some sort of action on the line. Whether it be a home fantasy league, some daily fantasy contests, money on the spread/total, or season-long future bets, having an extra something to cheer for delivers a little extra rush to the action. In this article, we’ll take a look at MVP odds for this season and some potential players to bet on.
Mahomes Favored to Win MVP Award
Patrick Mahomes +600 (MGM) – It’s easy to see why Mahomes is the favorite to win MVP honors this season. He already won the designation three years ago and is expected to put up video game numbers on the Kansas City Chiefs who are currently listed as Super Bowl favorites at +500. Mahomes regular-season passing touchdowns total is set at 39.5 TDs – three higher than the next closest (Tom Brady) – while his yardage total is set at a whopping 5050.5 yards. Truthfully, I cannot come up with any football reason as to why Mahomes isn’t a good bet to win MVP this season, and avoiding injury is likely his biggest obstacle to overcome.
Aaron Rodgers +1100 (MGM) – Haha, take that Aaron Rodgers haters! Rodgers was last year’s MVP winner after a few down seasons that had analytic nerds’ undies in a bundle about how the Packers’ QB was past his prime. While I am a Packers fan, the truth is that I am more aligned with the analytics nerds than I would like to be. Looking back, Rodgers’ 2020 season was buoyed by uber efficiency thanks to a career-best 70.7% completion percentage and a career-best 48 touchdowns. As an MVP future better my biggest concern is that Rodgers won’t throw the ball enough to be able to put up the counting stats (yardage, TDs) necessary to win the award.
Josh Allen +1400 (MGM) – If you were going to make Josh Allen MVP bets, last year was the season. Allen was still a LONG shot after a couple of shaky but promising years in the league but now the Bills QB is listed with the third-best odds to hoist the MVP trophy. Allen made massive strides in accuracy last season completing 69.2% of his passes compared to 52.8% and 58.8% his first two years in the league. Improvement is a good thing but it’s fair to question if THAT much improvement is actually sustainable for a QB that has historically troubled with accuracy throughout his entire playing career. The time to bet on Allen for MVP has passed and there’s no way I’m putting money down on him at this price.
Tom Brady +1400 (MGM) – Brady proved doubters wrong last season by leading the Bucs to a Super Bowl victory. His regular-season numbers were also impressive as he threw for 40 touchdowns and 4,633 yards. Tampa Bay’s offense will carry over the same main pieces from last season and could get potential boosts from O.J. Howard (early injury last season) and pass-catching back Giovani Bernard. While I still expect Tampa Bay to be a solid team, I simply can’t bring myself to bet on a 44-year-old QB to win MVP honors. Age regression has to come eventually….right?
Best Bets to Win NFL MVP
If making an MVP bet this season, this tier is where I would target – long enough odds to get me excited about a decent payout but still a realistic shot of hitting. I also want to take this time to mention how important it is to shop around for lines when placing future bets as it can make a huge difference in your potential payout. For example, while Russell Wilson is currently listed at +1400 on DraftKings Sportsbook, you can find him at +2000 on BetMGM, FanDuel Sportsbook, and Caesars.
Russell Wilson +2000 (MGM) – Let Russ cook! While it would be naive to expect the Seahawks to unleash Russ after holding him back the majority of his career, replacing Brian Schottenheimer with Shane Waldron at offensive coordinator is a move in the right direction. Early reports out of camp are that Seattle’s offense will look significantly different with increased emphasis on letting Wilson use his legs and even increasing the tempo of play at times. Considering Wilson threw for 40 touchdowns and 4,212 yards last season and ran for 513 yards and 2 touchdowns in what could be classified as a conservative offensive approach, Russ could truly put up massive numbers if the playbook is opened up just a tad more.
Kyler Murray +2500 (MGM) – I also like mobile QBs Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson but figured I would highlight Kyler at longer odds. Murray is entering his third NFL season and will be equipped with the best offensive weapons he has had to date. In addition to having a year under his belt with DeAndre Hopkins, the Cardinals drafted dynamic rookie Rondale Moore in the second round and added veteran A.J. Green while getting rid of the 37-year-old Larry Fitzgerald. While I am not overly convinced Green has much juice left in the tank, he is still an undeniable upgrade from what Larry Fitzgerald brought to the table his final few seasons. Add in Murray’s ability to run the ball – he finished with 819 yards and 11 TDs last season – and the upside is there to put up numbers worthy of hoisting the MVP trophy. And online sports betting in Arizona will launch just in time for Cardinals fans to back their favorite quarterback.
Defensive Longshot
Chase Young +15000 (Caesars) – In all reality, any MVP bet on a non-QB is likely just a donation to your sportsbook of choice. With that said, Washington’s defense has the pieces to be really good this season, and if they are, we’re likely looking at a monster year out of the second-year defensive end who is an absolute freak athlete. WFT’s ridiculously tough out-of-division schedule (vs KC, @ GB, vs TB) is less than ideal but I can think of worse ways to spend a few bucks.
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